Chalk Stack(s)

Colorado Rockies vs. Yohander Mendez

Mendez is an unknown making his first big league start on Friday. He’s made a few appearances here and there since 2016 and even ranked as the 56th best prospect in baseball according to MLB.com, but he hasn’t panned out. He’s been getting absolutely destroyed at Triple-A this year too. In 11 games -- 10 of which are starts -- he’s 0-6 with an ERA of 5.19. Right-handed bats have just murdered Mendez posting a slash of .298/.374/.556 and have hit 10 homers as well. Lefties haven’t been as good, but the .283 AVG against Mendez ain’t too shabby either.

The Rockies currently sit with the second highest implied total on tonight’s slate at 5.33 runs. They rank ninth in OPS and eighth in wOBA against southpaws on the year, so they really hit lefties, which puts Mendez in a baaaad spot. Any Rockies stack against a left-handed pitcher starts with Nolan Arenado . He’s the key cog in this stack as he’s currently slashing .395/.500/.711 with a .511 wOBA versus LHP. Not too far behind him are Trevor Story and DJ LeMahieu . Story has been a lefty killer since getting the call up a few seasons ago. In 308 career at-bats against left-handers, Story has an OPS of 1.021, a .341 ISO and a .421 wOBA. LeMahieu, like Story and Arenado, has also demolished lefties. He’s notched a .354 AVG against LHP compared to a .248 mark versus RHP. He too has an OPS over 1.000 and has actually hit four bombs off of them in 100 less at-bats against righties and he’s only hit two against them.

Between Tom Murphy and Chris Iannetta , whichever starts is in play. Iannetta has been feeling it at the dish hitting .296 with an .894 OPS over his last 10 games. Murphy has only been up for two games, but has four hits in those two games already. Both are righties, so it’s really a toss up who gets the nod.

I don’t hate the lefties here either, especially Charlie Blackmon and Carlos González . As I mentioned at the top, lefties have posted a .283 AVG at Triple-A off of Mendez this season. Blackmon hits anything thrown his way as evident in his .304 AVG versus the handedness this season. Gonzalez is more of a wild card here than anything. Both Blackmon and Gonzalez will be the lowest owned of the bunch in my opinion, but that could be a nice way to differentiate this stack. In June, CarGo has hit .289 with a .831 OPS and an .358 wOBA.

Primary Option(s): Nolan Arenado , Trevor Story , DJ LeMahieu , Tom Murphy , Chris Iannetta

Secondary Option(s): Charlie Blackmon , Carlos González , Ian Desmond

 

Contrarian Stack(s)

Miami Marlins vs. Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman is one of those guys that are Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. One moment he’s great, the next he’s getting shelled and being pulled in the second inning. Over his last five starts, Gausman has allowed five earned or more three times and also has a 10 strikeout, six inning strikeout mixed in. We can’t overlook that this game also happens to be in Baltimore, which is a huge park upgrade for Marlins’ hitters. Righties have been better against Gausman posting a .366 wOBA, but lefties haven’t been too shabby notching a .329 mark in their own right.

Two of the hottest hitters in the game right now actually play for the Marlins in Brian Anderson and Derek Dietrich . The rookie Anderson is hitting .375 with a 1.072 OPS over his last 10 games notching six extra-base hits, nine runs and eight RBI. Against right-handed pitching this season he’s hitting .306 with a .351 wOBA. Dietrich checks in with a .353 AVG over his last 10 games himself. He too like Anderson really hits right-handed pitching, posting a .288 AVG with six of his eight bombs coming off of right-handers.

After those two, Starlin Castro , J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour make for fantastic mix and match options. Bour has the most upside because of his power. He leads the Marlins with 10 homers, nine of which have come against righties. Speaking of righties, Bour has a .250 ISO and .375 wOBA against them, once against showing us his true power against RHP. Castro and Gausman have a pretty big 27 at-bat sample against one another, one in which Castro has bested him 10 times for a .370 AVG against. Realmuto is just a really good hitter, plain and simple. He has an .866 OPS over his last 10 games and has five extra-base knocks and nine runs scored over that same timeframe. Reamuto has really made his money hitting off of righties this season batting .324 with a .410 wOBA. All of these guys are firmly in play.

Two final pieces to the puzzle could be J.T. Riddle and Lewis Brinson . Riddle is an extreme punt, but he gets in the lineup against righties and hit his second homer over his last 10 games on Thursday. Brinson has begun to turn it up a bit since the start of June hitting .282 with an .892 OPS. The Marlins are not expensive at all and using players like Riddle and Brinson could help you afford a Rockies, Astros or Yankees stack if those are routs you are interested in going.

Primary Option(s): Brian Anderson , Justin Bour , Derek Dietrich , J.T. Realmuto , Starlin Castro

Secondary Option(s): J.T. Riddle , Lewis Brinson

 

Washington Nationals vs. Aarón Sánchez

It seems like 10 year ago that Aarón Sánchez was an All-Star with the way he’s pitched this season, specifically against left-handed hitters. Lefties have notched a .306 AVG off of Sanchez with a .406 wOBA. He’s only striking out LHH at a 13.4-percent rate and walking them at an 18.1-percent clip. His 6.57 xFIP against lefty bats is a really ugly thing to see. Let’s not overlook that this game is being played in Toronto as well, which is a positive park shift for the Nationals bats.

Speaking of lefties, the Nats have quite a few now that they’re healthy. Daniel Murphy , Adam Eaton and Brian Goodwin are all healthy and off of the disabled list and back in the fold. Eaton and Murphy are two of the better plays here, Goodwin is more of a secondary option. In 34 at-bats against right-handed pitching this season, Eaton is hitting a robust .424 with a .528 wOBA. He’s had a hit in all three games he’s played in since returning from the DL including a three-hit outing his last time out. We know how good Murphy is at the dish and strictly based on his resume and Sanchez’s struggles versus lefties makes him a serious threat here.

Bryce Harper is someone everyone could flock too in this matchup and I don’t blame anyone who does. Sure Harper’s struggled, but he’s walked more than anyone in baseball and at the top I mentioned that Sanchez doesn’t throw many strikes to lefty hitters. Despite all of his struggles this season, despite his .226 AVG on the year, despite his .167 AVG over his last 10 games, he still has 19 homers and is one game away from double-donging and getting himself right back on track. This could be that game.

Now that an entire paragraph has been designated to Bryce Harper , two more elite plays on Friday are Juan Soto and Matt Adams . The Nats are really going to be able to stack lefty bats here with the potential of seven, even eight in the lineup. The last time we saw Soto on the diamond he was shining under the bright lights of New York City hitting two homers against the Yankees on Wednesday night. Over his last 10 games, he’s belted four and has posted an OPS of 1.155. Adams too is hitting well in his last 10 posting a .292 batting average. Adams has a very nice season long sample against right-handed pitching posting a .290 AVG, hitting 10 of his 13 homers against them with a .425 wOBA, correlating perfectly against Sanchez.

Primary Option(s): Bryce Harper , Adam Eaton , Daniel Murphy , Juan Soto , Matt Adams

Secondary Option(s): Brian Goodwin , Trea Turner