Below are stacks to consider for Monday’s MLB DFS action.
The Chalk
AL Playoff Teams
There are three teams with a projected run total well over five runs this evening according to Vegas, and they all figure to be playoff teams from the American League. The East leads the way with the Yankees and Red Sox in a virtual tie for the highest projected run total of the night with the Central Division-leading Indians not far behind.
The Yankees are in Baltimore with right-hander Yefrey Ramirez on the hill for the O’s. Ramirez has made two starts this season, and while his 26.3 percent strikeout rate is solid, his 10.5 percent walk rate and 4.69 xFIP mean he’s someone the Yanks can handle. Aaron Judge is their best hitter against righties despite not having the platoon advantage with a 168 wRC+ vs. same-handed pitching this season. They also have several guys who hit from the left side that are good with platoon advantage. Aaron Hicks , Did Gregorius and Brett Gardner all have wRC+ marks between 113 and 127 against RHP this season.
The Red Sox will host the Rangers who will send lefty Mike Minor to the mound. The Sox started the season slow against left-handed pitching, but they’ve worked their way to the middle of the pack recently. Minor could help them continue to improve as he has a 4.70 xFIP in his last five starts. Right-handers J.D. Martínez and Mookie Betts have crushed left-handed pitching this season, especially Martinez who has literally been twice as good as league average vs. LHP. The Sox also recently acquired Steve Pearce primarily to hit left-handers. Pearce has a 114 wRC+ with the platoon advantage this season, which ranks third on the Sox.
Finally, we have Cleveland hosting Cincinnati with Anthony DeSclafani on the bump for the Reds. Only one of the other 22 probable starters tonight has a lower soft contact rate generated than DeSclafani this season, and DeSclafani’s strikeout rate is below average. That means lots of contact and lots of hard contact. The typical top three in Cleveland’s order, Francisco Lindor , Michael Brantley and José Ramírez , have all been at least 40 percent better than league average against right-handed pitching. That’s an expensive trio, but you need some exposure to it in cash games.
Not the Chalk
Houston Astros
We’ll get more contrarian in a moment, but let’s stick with the AL playoff teams for a moment. The Astros aren’t in the same projected run total territory as their AL counterparts today as they only have the eighth highest projected total. But they lead the league in wRC+ in the last 30 days, they rank second in the last seven days, and they rank second overall vs. RHP. Anytime you can get them at less than peak ownership, they’re worth a look.
Aside from their prowess, Houston has a good matchup against right-hander Frankie Montás . Montas has the lowest soft contact rate generated of any pitcher going tonight, and his strikeout rate is a paltry 15.2 percent. As we said with DeSclafani, that means lots of contact and lots of hard contact.
Houston’s five active hitters with the best numbers against righties are, in order, José Altuve , Alex Bregman , Evan Gattis , Yuli Gurriel and Josh Reddick . Those five also happened to be Houston’s hottest hitters over the last 15 days, and they hit 2-6 in the order the last time all five were in the lineup. If you’ve got some cheap pitching you can live with, you should consider stacking Astros on a night where they might not be one of the more popular stacks.
Texas Rangers
We’re staying with Texas teams here in the non-chalk section, but the Rangers are a much more contrarian pick than their in-state counterparts. The Rangers will be in Boston with Eduardo Rodríguez on the hill for the Sox. Rodriguez has leaned slightly to the fly ball end of the spectrum this season, and he has a 4.57 xFIP in his last five starts. Rodriguez’s performance along with a 10-15 mph wind blowing out in Boston mean the Rangers could be in line for some dingers tonight.
The Rangers rank 11th in wRC+ vs. LHP this season, and they have seven hitters who have been above average against left-handed pitching dating back to last season. Adrián Béltre , Jurickson Profar and Robinson Chirinos have been their three best hitters against lefties in that stretch, and they’re hitting 4-6-8 in the order tonight. Rougned Odor is in the five hole and he can’t be trusted without the platoon advantage, but Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the seven-spot can be used to streamline that 4-6-8 stack as IKF will have the platoon advantage on Rodriguez. Ryan Rua could even be tacked on to the stack hitting ninth.