Below are stacks to consider for Friday’s 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 PM ET.
Cleveland Indians
It’s never a bad idea to start your stacks research by looking to see who the Tigers are facing because Detroit’s bullpen is atrocious. The Tiger pen ranks dead last in xFIP both for the season and in the last 30 days. They also have the third worst ERA in both time frames as well.
If Michael Fulmer happens to be starting for the Tigers, you might not have to give serious consideration to stacking against them. But tonight Jordan Zimmermann is on the hill for Detroit. Zimm has an ERA and xFIP over 5.00 for the season, and he hasn’t been much better lately with both in the high fours in the last 30 days.
Dating back to last season, lefties have been above average against the right-handed Zimmermann with a combined, above average .337 wOBA against him. But what makes him so stackable is that he struggles with righties as well with righties owning a combined .371 wOBA against him this season.
Cleveland is solid against right-handed pitching with a top ten wOBA and wRC+ vs. RHP for the year. They have five hitters with at least 100 PA against righties this year who have been at least 10 percent better than league average per wRC+: Jose Ramirez (165), Lonnie Chisenhall (135), Michael Brantley (126), Bradley Zimmer (121), Edwin Encarnacion (111).
You do need to keep an eye on the weather in Cleveland tonight, though. As of this early morning writing the forecast made a postponement at least possible.
Coors Field
Let’s just address the ever-present elephant in the room when it comes to stacks. The Rockies will host the White Sox tonight, so of course both teams are stack options in Coors. They both rank top five in expected run totals tonight in Vegas, and the Rox lead the way with an expected total of almost seven runs. Seven! It’s hard to argue with Vegas as the Rox will be facing Derek Holland, who owns a 7.30 ERA in his last five starts.
The problem with stacking Coors is always that it’s a chalk play. It’s a good idea to fade it in GPPs, especially if you can come up with good reasons to do so. The White Sox are a bit easier to reason your way out of tonight. They rank bottom five in wOBA vs. RHP this year, and they only have two hitters with more than 100 PA that have been above average vs. RHP.
As for the Rockies, the only real reason to fade them is simply the concern of being contrarian. Maybe sprinkle in a Rock or two where you have openings. But try not to go heavy on a Rockies stack, because they’ll be heavily owned at home against Holland with a massive expected total in Vegas.
Texas Heat
Sticking with the ballpark theme, Texas is going to play very hitter-friendly tonight as it so often does. It will be 92 degrees at game time, and it should stay in the high 80s throughout the game. It will also be sticky with a dewpoint in the 70’s. Heat and humidity are friends of hitters, so Rangers and visiting Angels are worth a look.
The Rangers will face right-hander Ricky Nolasco, which is good because Rangers are much better against right-handed pitching than left. They’re just better than average in wOBA vs. RHP at 14th, and they have pop against righties with a .200 ISO that is third best in the league. By comparison they rank 26th in wOBA and 17th in ISO when facing lefties.
Not that Nolasco could ever really scare you off, but don’t be concerned by his solid pitching of late, HE does have a 3.21 ERA in his last five starts, but he has a 4.57 xFIP in that span that confirms he’s still the same Ricky Nolasco we know and love to stack against.
As for which Rangers to use, Carlos Gomez, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus (out on paternity leave), Robinson Chirinos, Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara all have above average numbers against right-handers this season. That puts virtually the entire lineup in play, which gives you some serious flexibility when stacking.
On the other side of that game, the Angels give you a more contrarian stack option. Everyone we’ve discussed so far, The Indians, Rockies, White Sox and Rangers all have top five expected totals in Vegas tonight as of this writing. Coors may help the ownership percentages of Indians and Rangers down a bit, but they’re inarguably still chalky options. However, that’s not the case for the Angels who are middle of the pack with the 15th highest expected total in Vegas.
The Angels will face Cole Hamels who is making his third start back in the rotation. He was solid his last time out, but got roughed up by the Indians in his first start back. Dating back to last season, Yunel Escobar has been LA’s best hitter against lefties with Kole Calhoun, Cameron Maybin, Andrelton Simmons and Martin Maldonado all having slightly above average numbers against lefties. Albert Pujols is also an option with right at average numbers against lefties in that timeframe.
Milwaukee Brewers
There are other semi-chalky options with expected run totals over five that are intriguing today like the Astros, D-Backs and Dodgers, who could potentially see a bit less ownership due to the fact that there are too many appealing options today. But instead let’s end on what should be a less popular option, the Brewers.
Milwaukee is in New York taking on the Yankees. Milwaukee is a homer-friendly park for hitters, so normally the Brewers get a negative park shift on the road, but Yankee Stadium is one of the few parks that is even more homer-friendly than Miller Park. Yankee starter Jordan Montgomery has been struggling a bit with the long ball recently with a 2.04 HR/9 in his last five starts.
Montgomery is a left-hander, and the Brewers rank 12th in wOBA vs. LHP this season. Dating back to last season, Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and Jonathan Villar all have at least 170 PA vs. LHP and a wRC+ of at least 114. This year, right-handers Jesus Aguilar and Manny Pina have hit lefties well in small sample sizes.