There is no doubt that choosing the right stack greatly improves your chances of cashing in on your DFS MLB lineups on any given night. In addition, it would make those chances even greater if you can identify the one less owned by your competitors. I like to start with the Vegas Odds, implied run total (IRT) tool here at Fantasy Alarm. Vegas is usually on point, or else, well, we’d all be rich. So, it’s a good starting point to identify a few of the best options for the day. From there, I like to take a look at some other elements that could contribute to a game and/or team far exceeding that IRT. This includes weather, umpire, ballpark and, of course, opposing starting pitcher.
There are some usual suspects at the top of the IRT list today with Texas (6.02), Washington (5.78), Cleveland (5.55), Arizona (5.55) and the Yankees (5.52).
Let’s draw two of our top stack options from these five and then look for a dark horse candidate to throw in a tournament lineup.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS vs. Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) at Chase Field
We know how much hitters enjoy hitting at Chase Field. This year, the Ballpark Ratings are showing that it is less offensive than it has been in the past. However, on any given night, these Diamondbacks bats can go off in front of their home crowd. Foltynewicz has been good of late, allowing no more than three earned runs in his last five starts. Alfonzo Marquez is expected behind the plate and he ranks 24th (of 173) in runs per game at 10.64 in 11 games behind the plate this year. 77.8 % (7 of 11) have gone over this year. There are just too many reasons to jump on the D-Backs tonight. We’ll give another slight bump to the lefties in the lineup as Foltynewicz has allowed a .380 wOBA vs. left-handed hitters this year.
Top options: OF David Peralta (L); 3B Jake Lamb (L); OF A.J. Pollock (R) ; 1B Paul Goldschmidt (R) ; OF J.D. Martinez (R)
Value plays: 2B Brandon Drury (R) ; C/OF Chris Herrmann (L); OF Gregor Blanco (L)
WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. Zach Davies (MIL) at Nationals Park
The Nats are second in IRT, but we’re fading the No.1 option Rangers at Globe Life simply because Dan Straily can (I repeat, can) be dominant at times. The Nationals face a guy in Zach Davies who is much more volatile and puts plenty of runners on base - a recipe for disaster. Nationals Park is coming in as the 6th most offensive ballpark (partly due to the offense that resides in it) and it should be a nice night in the Nation’s capital and ripe for some runs.
Top options: OF Bryce Harper; 1B Ryan Zimmermann; 2B Daniel Murphy; 3B Anthony Rendon
Value plays: OF Brian Goodwin; SS Wilmer Difo; OF Andrew Stevenson
I mentioned in the opening that you are in better shape going with a lesser owned stack option. So, for that, we’ll suggest the…
OAKLAND ATHLETICS vs. Cesar Valdez (TOR) at Rogers Centre
The A’s aren’t stacked too often, however, we have seen this offense have their fair share of big games. With the spot starter, Cesar Valdez, and his 6.05 ERA taking the hill in Rogers Centre tonight for the Blue Jays, we’re taking notice. They come in 6th in IRT, so Vegas isn’t shying away here either.
Top options: OF Khris Davis; 1B Yonder Alonso; 2B Jed Lowrie; SS Marcus Semien
Value plays: OF Matt Joyce; DH Ryon Healy; C Bruce Maxwell; OF Jaycob Brugman
Good luck tonight!