Below are stacks to consider for Friday’s MLB DFS action.
The Chalk
Cleveland Indians
The Indians easily have the highest projected run total per Vegas tonight with a projected total of 5.6 when no other team has a projected total higher than five. The reason for the high total is obvious as they’ll face Martín Pérez who has the highest xFIP this season of any starter going tonight by more than half a run. It’s also going to be extremely hot in Texas tonight with highs reaching 100 during the day and game time temps being north of 100.
Francisco Lindor and José Ramírez have been the leaders of this offense this season, and Lindor is rocking a healthy 180 wRC+ vs. LHP this season. Ramirez lags behind with a 133 wRC+ vs. LHP, but that’s still well above average. Brandon Guyer has a 137 wRC+ vs. LHP this season and hit fifth the last time Cleveland faced a lefty. That means those three guys should be 1-3-5 in the order tonight. You could streamline the stack a bit by including Michael Brantley in the two-hole. He’s near average without the platoon advantage this season and is 2-for-4 against Perez in his career.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tonight the Dodgers will face left-hander Wade Miley who has a 5.09 xFIP and as many walks as strikeouts in three starts this season. The game is in Milwaukee, so the Dodgers will be getting a positive park shift on the road.
LA has six hitters who have been above average against left-handers this season, and they’re led by Max Muncy who has been more than twice as good against lefties this season. Matt Kemp is 8-for-27 with a couple homers against Miley in his career, and he and Muncy should hit 3-4 in the order, so the stack should be built around them. The last time the Dodgers faced a lefty Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez joined Kemp and Muncy in the top half of the lineup. Manny Machado also figures to be in the top half of the order now that he has been acquired, so he’s in the mix as well.
Not the Chalk
Oakland Athletics
The A’s only have the seventh highest projected total of the evening, so they shouldn’t be too highly owned. However, the A’s were humming before the All-Star break as they own the fourth best wRC+ in the league over the last 30 days. Today they’ll host the Giants who will send Dereck Rodriguez to the mound. Among tonight’s probable starters, Rodriguez has the fourth lowest soft contact rate generated and the seventh lowest strikeout rate. That means he allows a lot of hard contact and gives up a lot of hard contact.
The A’s have five hitters who have all been between 20 and 50 percent better than league average against right-handed pitching this season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if all five hit consecutively in the order tonight. They’re led by switch-hitting All-Star Jed Lowrie who has a 147 wRC+ vs. RHP this season. The other four are Khris Davis , Stephen Piscotty , Matt Chapman and Matt Olson .
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have a projected total per Vegas tonight that is below average, so they’re the contrarian pick of the night. They’re hosting the Marlins, and while Tampa is not a hitter-friendly park, the Rays offense ranks 12th in wOBA at home, and wOBA is not a park-adjusted stat, so they’re succeeding there despite the park.
Dan Straily will be on the mound for the Marlins, and Straily is a good matchup to pick on. For one, he leans toward the fly ball end of the spectrum with the sixth lowest GB/FB ratio among tonight’s starters. He also struggles to generate soft contact as he ranks next to last among tonight’s starters in that stat, and he has a sub-20 percent strikeout rate.
The Rays are led in ISO vs. RHP by Jake Bauers and C.J. Cron . That pair hit 3-4 in the order in Tampa’s last game before the break and should be the basis of a Tampa stack. Lighter hitting guys like Matt Duffy , Daniel Robertson , Mallex Smith and Joey Wendle have all been above average against righties this season, so they should be used to fill in a stack around Bauers/Cron based on who is hitting near that pair in the lineup.