Below are some stacks to consider for Friday’s seven-game MLB main slate.
The Chalk
The Astros and Yankees, who are widely considered to be the best offenses in the league, have the highest implied run totals in Vegas tonight. The Yankees will host the O’s with Kevin Gausman on the mound, and the Astros will host the Padres with Luis Perdomo pitching.
The top six for the Yankees is extremely stackable tonight. Their big three right-handers, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez, were all at least 30 percent better than league average against same-handed pitchers like Gausman last season. Judge feasted on Gausman last year going 6-for-12 against him with three home runs and four walks in 16 plate appearances.
You might be able to get slightly lower ownership with some of the Yankee lefties hitting in the top two-thirds of the order. Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius and Neil Walker have all been in the top six each time the Yankees have faced a right-hander so far this season. All three were at least 20 percent better than average with the platoon advantage last season. Gausman really struggles with lefties allowing a .350 wOBA to them last year.
The Astros are in a similar boat as their top six is almost as stackable. Their big three of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer are all perfectly comfortable without the platoon advantage as they were all at least 30 percent better than league average against same-handed pitching last season. Switch-hitter Marwin Gonzalez is much better from the left side, and lefty Josh Reddick is much better with the platoon advantage. Reddick has also been hot lately, and he’s 4-for-5 with a home run in his career against Perdomo.
The game in Texas also figures to be very chalky. The Rangers and the visiting Blue Jays have the third and fourth highest implied run totals in Vegas thanks in part to the hitter-friendly ballpark and in part to two below average, flyball-heavy pitchers that will be starting, Matt Moore and Marco Estrada.
Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak both destroyed lefties last season and Donaldson has great numbers against Moore in his career. The problem with stacking Jays is that their other hitters who are good against lefties either don’t always make it into the lineup or hit down in the order away from Donaldson and Smoak. But were Kevin Pillar to hit up in the order a bit and were Kendrys Morales to draw into the lineup, the Jays could have some stack appeal.
As for the Rangers, their four best hitters against right-handed pitching last season, Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre have hit 1-4 in the lineup in each of Texas’ last four games. That said, Gallo, Andrus and Beltre are a combined 6-for-31 against Estrada, so they’re the least appealing of the chalky options.
Not Chalk
The Reds have the fourth lowest implied run total of the 14 teams in action tonight, but Vegas may be underselling them a bit. There’s no doubt they’re getting a negative park shift on the road in Pittsburgh, and it’s going to be cold in Pittsburgh if they even get to play the game with precipitation very much in the forecast. But this article is being written approximately 18 hours before game time, so we’ll consider the merits of the Reds anyway in case the forecast clears up.
Trevor Williams will start for the Pirates tonight if they do end up playing, and Williams had a mediocre season in his first full campaign last year with a 4.07 ERA, 4.49 xFIP and more than three walks per nine. He started 2018 off with six innings of scoreless ball, but he walked five and only struck out one in that start. Williams particularly struggled against the Reds last season allowing a .419 wOBA to them in a combined 72 PA.
The Reds have four left-handers who were above average with the platoon advantage last season, and all four of them where in the top five of the order on Opening Day, which is one of only two times the Reds have faced a right-handed starter so far this season. Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Scott Schebler are those four left-handers, and right-hander Eugenio Suarez, who was above average against right-handed pitching last season, also hits in the top half of the order.
If the Reds end up getting rained out, the A’s are an alternative non-chalk stack option. Oakland opened with a below average implied run total in Vegas and are an underdog on the road in Los Angeles facing Parker Bridwell and the Angels.
The A’s fared well against Bridwell last season when they faced him in what were consecutive starts for Bridwell. He allowed seven runs in the first start and six runs in the following start, allowing three home runs total with only seven strikeouts between the two starts compared to four walks. Matt Olson hit two of the homers off Bridwell with Bruce Maxwell hitting the other.
Bridwell leans on the fly ball end of the GB/FB ratio with a 0.94 mark in that stat last season. That he allows hitters to elevate obviously gives an A’s stack some upside. Bridwell also has traditional platoon splits as left-handers had more success against the right-hander last year.
Jed Lowrie, Matt Joyce and Olson are all lefties who have hit in the top half of the order each time Oakland has faced a right-handed starter so far this season. Khris Davis is also always in the top half of the order, and the right-hander had a healthy 134 wRC+ and .293 ISO against same-handed pitching last season. You could also add Boog Powell to the stack given that the left-hander generally hits ninth in the order and would thus be fairly connected to the other A’s you’d be stacking. Powell was slightly above average against right-handed pitching last season.