DFS MLB Pitching Coach: September 17

I totally forgot how cold it can get out here in the woods, I mean freezing. I also had the crap scared out of me at 4 a.m. when I went outside to turn our water on (I forgot when we pulled in last night). As I was bending over to turn the valve, I heard a series of loud snaps and thumps heading towards me from the dark woods. Maybe it freaked me out because I went to sleep watching season one of “Ash versus the Evil Dead”. Trust me, you have never seen a fat guy move so fast. So, I did my best Richard Simmons impression and bailed to my trailer. But alas, the water is on, and here I am.

Today we have little to choose from for SP, and weather is going to knock out a few of the studs. Most of the players are bottom rotation guys except for a few. I was able however, to sniff out a couple of decent plays. The good news is with so many low priced pitchers going today, it should be fairly easy to get some studs in your lineups.

So with a fresh cup of coffee (I have no Splenda!), a cold shiver, and something lurking outside in the woods, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.

Possible weather concerns

We have fairly cool temps across the country today and not a lot of weather concerns.

The Pirates-Reds game has serious issues going on today that may cause both games of this double-header to be delayed. We have thunderstorms moving in around 1 p.m. and staying right through the evening. There should be a few windows of dryness, but I would completely fade these games at this time.

The same goes for the Tigers-Indians game. Thunderstorms are moving in around 10 a.m. and seem to be staying put. I would also consider this game a complete fade at this time.

Keep in mind, it is 4 a.m. and weather has a funny way of changing.

Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow our weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.

Early Slate

Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (Cash)

Arrieta gets a great park shift at home today facing the Brewers who are striking out 26.8 percent of the time versus RHP. It does not get better for the Brew-crew on the road. They have low .305 road wOBA and even more pathetic wRC+ of 86. Arrieta has had his troubles as of late allowing five earned runs over his last 11 1/3 innings but, when you factor in his 8.59 K/9, then add in the fact the Brewers are batting .190 while striking out 29.2 percent over the last seven days, I find him very hard to pass on in cash games. Just a note, I like him better on DK today than FD. The current Brewers roster is batting .230 (20-for-87) with three HR (Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Hernan Perez, and Ryan Braun), nine RBI, and 21 strikeouts versus Jake from State Farm. Keep in mind, the Brewers are pretty beat up right now, which makes the matchup even sweeter.

David Price, Boston Red Sox (Cash)

Although he had his troubles with the Yankees to begin the year, Price is a completely different animal right now. Over his last three starts versus the Athletics, Padres, and Orioles who all have comparable numbers versus LHP as the Yankees, Price has a 2.45 ERA with 24 strikeouts over 22 innings. The Yankees are in a huge funk right now batting .230, striking out 22.2 percent of the time, with a low wRC+ of 85. Price has a 9.19 K/9, 12.7-percent swinging strike rate (highest on early slate), and keeps the ball on the ground with the Red Sox offense behind him. I see no way he does not get the win and dominate today versus the faltering Yankees. The current Yankees roster is batting .288 (93-for-323) with seven HR (Brian McCann (3), Mark Teixeira (3), and Jacoby Ellsbury), 37 RBI, and 57 strikeouts versus Price.

Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers (SP2/GPP)

I find it very hard to ignore Davies on such a small slate. As a matter of fact, in Davies last two starts versus the same Cubs at home, and Cardinals on the road, has a 1.93 ERA, with 10 strikeouts over 14 innings. He gets a great park shift pitching in Chicago today, facing a Cubs team with a roster in doubt. The Cubbies are batting .242 while striking out 24.2 percent of the time over the last seven days which offers some K upside with Davies 7.45 K/9. He gets a big park, keeps the ball on the ground, and is certainly priced fair today across the industry making him the best SP2 or GPP play on this small slate. The current Cubs roster is batting .259 (21-for-81) with one HR (Kris Bryant), nine RBI, and 12 strikeouts versus Davies.

Evening Slate

This slate is rather ugly for pitching, and to be honest, even though I putting out a cash game play, I will not be using him. I will be using all the cheaper options myself tonight in GPPs, and loading up on bats. With so much crap going today, we have a great chance that runs are going to be available everywhere. Not to mention we have a Coors Field game, which, I want some serious exposure to.

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (Cash)

The main reason I am fading Darvish tonight is I believe he has just as much of a chance to get blown up as shine, especially in Texas. This is one of them nights where every SP on the slate has huge blow up potential. But, here is why Darvish is the best cash game play. The Athletics strikeout 20.4 percent of the time with a low .305 wOBA versus RHP on the season. Darvish, has a monster 11.26 K/9 (top on slate), and 13.4-percent swinging strike rate (also top on the slate). The problem is, the A’s are red hot right now batting .304 with a monster wRC+ of 137 over the last seven days. By nights’ end, the strikeout numbers alone, despite giving up some runs, should make Darvish the highest scoring pitcher tonight, and the chalk. Hence, why he is the top cash game play. I am not playing any cash games, so I myself, am fading Darvish. If you are, you would be foolish to follow my lead. The current A’s roster is batting .272 (25-for-92) with two HR (Jake Smolinski and Khris Davis), eight RBI, and 22 strikeouts versus Darvish.

Seth Lugo, New York Mets (Borderline cash, SP2, GPP, super DK value)

This is my favorite play tonight. Lugo gets a great park shift at home in Citi Field in some nice cool weather, which of course, is not conducive to baseballs traveling well. The Twins are in a major funk right now, over the last seven days they are batting a measly .211, with a low wRC+ of 69, while striking out a whopping 24.7 percent of the time. Lugo, well, he has looked great. Over his last two starts versus the Nationals at home, and Braves on the road, has a 1.93 ERA with nine strikeouts over 14 innings. The K upside is not huge here, but, this is also in my opinion the pitcher with the least blow up risk on the slate tonight, and for the price, I am all in. As you well imagined, we have no BVP here but he is a -147 favorite.

Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles (SP2, GPP, Aces value)

Anytime I am using Baltimore pitching things are looking thin. Especially at home in Camden Yards, which is a less than favorable park shift. Tillman faces the Rays today who are striking out 22.4 percent of the time versus RHP on the season, with a subpar .312 wOBA. Tillman has dominated the Rays this season, over four starts, spanning 23 2/3 innings, he has 19 strikeouts, with a 3.04 ERA. The thing is, the ERA is misleading, in three of the four starts he only allowed two earned runs, while having one bad start allowing six earned runs over five innings. He dominated the Tigers in his last start, and I look for that to continue today versus the Rays. For his price, I find him a nice value across the industry. The current Rays roster is batting .250 (57-for-228) with nine HR (Even Longoria (7) which as you can imagine will be a popular play today, Alexei Ramirez, and Steven Souza Jr.), 24 RBI, and 51 strikeouts versus Tillman.

Jose Urena, Miami Marlins (SP2, GPP)

The strikeout upside is low here and this play is based on his recent performance versus how horrid the Phillies are. The Phillies are the team that should all have the number 30 on their jerseys. You see, they are 30^th in MLB in pretty much everything. They are striking out 30.3 percent of the time over the last seven days, are 30^th in wOBA versus RHP at .296, and 30^th in home wOBA at .201 to compliment the thirty-status in wRC+ (71). Urena in his last two starts versus the Dodgers and Phillies on the road has a 2.29 ERA, with 11 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings. I look for him to continue this today versus the struggling Phils. The current Phillies roster is batting .250 (12-for-48) with two HR (Tyler Goeddel and Tommy Joseph), six RBI, and 12 strikeouts versus Urena. Notice that even though Urena does not strikeout a ton of batters, he has so far struck out 25-percent of the Phillies he faced. Love this play tonight.

Good luck today. Check your catchers if they played last night.

There will be no Sunday pitching coach going forward, but I will still be playing. Feel free to hit me up for any SP questions.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com

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