“Looks like somebody’s got a case of the Mondays.”
Not really a bad day, but would always prefer better mid-tier options than what I feel today’s slate has to offer. I’m sure there are some plays that others like and I might be extra-cautious with, but you’re coming here for my opinion, not just to hear me agree with everyone else. For example, Jeff Mans likes Aaron Sanchez as a GPP play today and I totally get where he’s coming from, but I still see risk there…enough risk for me to shy away. The Giants have a .328 wOBA with just a 15.5-percent K-rate against righties this year and have a .332 wOBA with a 109 wRC+ over the last seven days. Yes, Jake Peavy is atrocious and the Jays could come away with the W, but it’s a pitcher-friendly park and the Jays are not the Jays we once saw. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Jeff is way more right than I am with regard to DFS, so his use of Sanchez in a GPP makes me think about the risk/reward in tournaments more. But for recommendations to you, I have others at which I am looking and most of them are costly.
| vs L | vs R | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Name | Team | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | AVG | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | FD | DK | Aces |
| Jon Lester | CHC | L | H | SD | 40.0 | 8.55 | 2.03 | 0.90 | 0.228 | 9.8% | 1.58 | 2.97 | 1.05 | 0.282 | 44.7% | 28.2% | 1.59 | 0.260 | 0.264 | $11,000 | $11,800 | $6,400 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | R | H | DET | 42.0 | 10.07 | 1.93 | 0.21 | 0.217 | 12.2% | 2.36 | 2.69 | 1.00 | 0.308 | 49.5% | 32.0% | 1.55 | 0.180 | 0.304 | $11,000 | $11,600 | $7,500 |
| Jose Fernandez | MIA | R | H | MIL | 33.2 | 12.56 | 4.28 | 0.53 | 0.234 | 13.4% | 4.28 | 2.85 | 1.34 | 0.360 | 39.5% | 27.6% | 1.43 | 0.350 | 0.260 | $10,800 | $11,300 | $7,100 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | R | H | TB | 36.2 | 7.12 | 4.42 | 0.74 | 0.203 | 8.4% | 2.21 | 4.31 | 1.25 | 0.236 | 55.3% | 29.1% | 1.90 | 0.288 | 0.264 | $10,700 | $11,000 | $7,250 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | R | A | HOU | 43.0 | 8.79 | 1.47 | 0.63 | 0.215 | 13.5% | 3.35 | 3.05 | 0.95 | 0.274 | 51.8% | 33.3% | 1.55 | 0.302 | 0.218 | $10,700 | $13,400 | $7,000 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | L | A | LAD | 28.2 | 9.42 | 2.20 | 0.31 | 0.248 | 7.5% | 2.83 | 2.79 | 1.19 | 0.333 | 55.4% | 21.6% | 2.56 | 0.391 | 0.231 | $9,700 | $9,300 | $6,250 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | R | A | BOS | 35.1 | 8.15 | 4.08 | 1.27 | 0.257 | 8.2% | 4.84 | 3.93 | 1.44 | 0.303 | 56.9% | 27.5% | 2.07 | 0.302 | 0.378 | $9,600 | $6,800 | $6,650 |
| Scott Kazmir | LAD | L | H | NYM | 31.2 | 8.53 | 2.27 | 1.99 | 0.273 | 9.3% | 5.68 | 4.18 | 1.36 | 0.308 | 41.2% | 41.2% | 1.00 | 0.297 | 0.369 | $8,200 | $8,200 | $5,900 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | R | H | OAK | 34.2 | 6.49 | 3.89 | 1.30 | 0.258 | 8.4% | 5.71 | 4.98 | 1.41 | 0.284 | 41.0% | 40.0% | 1.02 | 0.406 | 0.266 | $8,000 | $7,100 | $5,850 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | R | H | CLE | 33.2 | 6.95 | 1.07 | 2.14 | 0.307 | 8.5% | 5.35 | 3.40 | 1.40 | 0.330 | 36.8% | 28.9% | 1.27 | 0.361 | 0.379 | $7,700 | $7,300 | $5,800 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | R | H | CHW | 38.0 | 6.39 | 2.61 | 1.89 | 0.274 | 8.4% | 3.32 | 4.84 | 1.34 | 0.288 | 33.1% | 46.6% | 0.71 | 0.382 | 0.309 | $7,600 | $6,500 | $5,750 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | R | H | ARI | 37.2 | 6.45 | 1.91 | 0.72 | 0.239 | 8.7% | 2.15 | 3.71 | 1.12 | 0.277 | 51.8% | 29.5% | 1.76 | 0.214 | 0.341 | $7,500 | $6,600 | $6,300 |
| Matt Moore | TB | L | A | SEA | 36.1 | 9.17 | 2.48 | 1.49 | 0.241 | 11.9% | 4.95 | 3.56 | 1.21 | 0.286 | 43.3% | 34.6% | 1.25 | 0.418 | 0.282 | $7,200 | $7,600 | $5,950 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | R | A | WAS | 30.2 | 9.68 | 5.58 | 1.47 | 0.269 | 9.6% | 5.87 | 4.74 | 1.66 | 0.333 | 40.5% | 41.7% | 0.97 | 0.374 | 0.370 | $7,200 | $7,500 | $6,200 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | R | A | SF | 38.1 | 7.98 | 2.82 | 0.70 | 0.228 | 8.8% | 2.82 | 3.20 | 1.17 | 0.278 | 60.4% | 19.8% | 3.05 | 0.329 | 0.210 | $7,100 | $6,900 | $6,000 |
| Cesar Vargas | SD | R | A | CHC | 16.1 | 6.61 | 4.96 | 0.55 | 0.228 | 9.9% | 1.10 | 4.58 | 1.35 | 0.273 | 58.1% | 27.9% | 2.08 | 0.264 | 0.336 | $6,800 | $5,400 | $5,750 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | R | A | TEX | 5.1 | 10.13 | 3.38 | 1.69 | 0.423 | 13.3% | 8.44 | 4.56 | 2.44 | 0.526 | 40.0% | 45.0% | 0.89 | 0.431 | 0.521 | $6,700 | $5,200 | $5,500 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | R | H | PIT | 30.1 | 7.71 | 4.15 | 1.48 | 0.187 | 12.1% | 3.56 | 4.72 | 1.12 | 0.197 | 35.4% | 41.8% | 0.85 | 0.255 | 0.339 | $6,500 | $4,900 | $5,200 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | R | H | BAL | 9.1 | 12.54 | 6.75 | 1.93 | 0.257 | 10.1% | 6.75 | 3.85 | 1.71 | 0.350 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 1.50 | 0.443 | 0.308 | $6,500 | $7,000 | $5,300 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | R | H | KC | 14.0 | 4.50 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.281 | 9.2% | 5.14 | 3.60 | 1.21 | 0.306 | 66.0% | 16.0% | 4.13 | 0.312 | 0.329 | $6,300 | $5,100 | $5,350 |
| Jake Peavy | SF | R | H | TOR | 29.0 | 7.76 | 2.48 | 1.86 | 0.362 | 12.6% | 9.00 | 4.74 | 1.90 | 0.414 | 37.9% | 44.7% | 0.85 | 0.502 | 0.432 | $6,000 | $6,700 | $5,650 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | R | A | COL | 4.1 | 4.15 | 8.31 | 2.08 | 0.368 | 6.7% | 10.38 | 5.99 | 2.54 | 0.375 | 70.6% | 17.6% | 4.00 | 0.566 | 0.315 | $5,900 | $4,300 | $5,100 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | L | A | CIN | 33.1 | 6.75 | 3.78 | 1.89 | 0.304 | 6.7% | 5.94 | 4.78 | 1.68 | 0.330 | 49.5% | 34.2% | 1.45 | 0.400 | 0.407 | $5,800 | $5,000 | $6,050 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | R | A | MIA | 30.0 | 5.40 | 3.90 | 1.50 | 0.346 | 7.7% | 7.50 | 5.08 | 1.93 | 0.374 | 51.9% | 31.1% | 1.67 | 0.421 | 0.431 | $5,700 | $5,300 | $5,650 |
| Chris Young | KC | R | A | NYY | 29.2 | 8.80 | 3.34 | 2.43 | 0.264 | 10.0% | 5.76 | 4.63 | 1.45 | 0.286 | 32.2% | 51.1% | 0.63 | 0.419 | 0.314 | $5,500 | $5,800 | $5,500 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | R | A | MIN | 23.2 | 4.94 | 2.28 | 0.76 | 0.220 | 6.4% | 3.04 | 4.17 | 1.10 | 0.237 | 52.6% | 25.6% | 2.05 | 0.251 | 0.313 | $5,400 | $4,800 | $5,200 |
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Jon Lester, CHC – How many different ways can we say the Padres are terrible? Maybe the .286 wOBA and 25.8-percent strikeout rate over the last seven days? They do have a slightly-better .311 wOBA versus southpaws this year, but then that strikeout rate also jumps to 26.6-percent.
Stephen Strasburg, WAS – The Tigers come out of their element and lose the DH which is nice. Almost as nice as the 29th-ranked .261 wOBA over the last seven days. Throw in a 24-percent strikeout rate and some ho-hum league-average numbers against right-handers this season and Stars looks like an even tastier option.
Jose Fernandez, MIA – The Brewers are as much of a Jekyll & Hyde case as Fernandez is right now and with that, I’ll side with the hurler. Yes, Ray Flowers didn’t have the most flattering things to say in his most recent write-up, but the only reason…the ONLY reason….the Brewers’ recent numbers look as good as they do is because they just spent the last seven games facing the dumpster fire-like rotations of the Reds and Angels. Fernandez’ biggest hurdle right now is left-handed hitting and fortunately for him, the Brewers don’t have much of it. I’d rather worry about Alex Presley than Ryan Braun or Chris Carter right now.
Felix Hernandez, SEA – Run support is sometimes an issue, particularly when the Mariners are at home, but the Rays not only have a sub-.300 wOBA against righties, but they’re also fanning 27.2-percent of the time against them.
Steven Matz, NYM – Like the prices on Draft Kings and Aces more than the one set on FanDuel, but Matz should be worth the pay up there as well. The Dodgers’ offensive production has been nightmarish at home this season and their league-average numbers against lefties and over the past week aren’t scaring anyone. Add in Matz’ 55.4-percent ground ball rate and the 47-percent rate for the Dodgers against southpaws and you’ve got a busy but successful Mets infield.
Matt Moore, TB – He’s shown a lot of improvement this year and while far too many are freaking out about the club’s decision to skip a start of his, he now remains more of a GPP option than for cash games. The Mariners are coming off a 5-2 road trip which is why their numbers look so good over the past week, but their return home where they have just a .285 wOBA with a 21-percent K-rate makes Moore look better.
The Coin Flip
In all honesty, this game could go either way as both offenses are struggling mightily over the last week and, on the whole, this entire season. Both have outstanding bullpens, so it’s really too close to call as far as who earns the win. Both teams have a wOBA hovering around .270 recently and both are fanning at roughly a 20-percent clip. The Royals have a slightly better wOBA versus righties, but the Yankees are much better at home than the Royals are on the road. My gut says to go with Nova here, but I’m actually more inclined to throw in a GPP lineup with each starter at the helm and most of my hitters being the same.