We’ve got one of those slates today where the number of possible options is pretty great, regardless of pricing. Some really nice options in the upper tier, but also some great potential in the bargain pricing. I’m not sure if that’s good or bad yet. We’ll have to see. All I’m thinking right now is what my budget for playing today is because I have lots of guys I may want to try out. Here’s a look at the data with some thoughts and you’ll just have to sort it out from there.
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Name | Team | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | AVG | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | FD | DK | Aces |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | R | H | LAD | 68.0 | 8.87 | 2.78 | 0.40 | 0.168 | 10.4% | 1.72 | 3.11 | 0.90 | 56.5% | 24.1% | 2.34 | 0.264 | 0.190 | $12,000 | $13,000 | $7,650 |
| Jose Fernandez | MIA | R | H | PIT | 60.2 | 13.35 | 3.71 | 0.59 | 0.216 | 15.0% | 2.82 | 2.53 | 1.19 | 38.4% | 32.0% | 1.20 | 0.320 | 0.240 | $11,100 | $12,400 | $7,200 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | L | H | CHW | 49.2 | 9.06 | 1.63 | 0.54 | 0.219 | 9.0% | 2.36 | 2.85 | 0.99 | 55.6% | 27.0% | 2.06 | 0.333 | 0.219 | $10,300 | $11,100 | $7,000 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | R | A | MIA | 53.1 | 7.43 | 2.70 | 0.51 | 0.260 | 8.1% | 2.53 | 4.03 | 1.29 | 40.9% | 35.1% | 1.17 | 0.321 | 0.285 | $10,000 | $9,600 | $7,100 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | R | H | TEX | 66.2 | 9.05 | 2.16 | 0.68 | 0.230 | 12.3% | 3.78 | 3.27 | 1.11 | 52.5% | 31.5% | 1.67 | 0.304 | 0.257 | $9,500 | $10,400 | N/A |
| Drew Smyly | TB | L | A | KC | 62.0 | 9.73 | 2.18 | 1.60 | 0.216 | 11.9% | 3.92 | 3.86 | 1.05 | 31.3% | 50.9% | 0.61 | 0.300 | 0.283 | $9,100 | $8,800 | $6,550 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | R | H | SD | 62.1 | 6.93 | 2.45 | 1.01 | 0.282 | 9.2% | 4.33 | 4.30 | 1.38 | 40.4% | 35.8% | 1.13 | 0.329 | 0.346 | $9,000 | $9,200 | $6,400 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | R | H | WAS | 66.0 | 9.55 | 1.64 | 0.68 | 0.198 | 10.5% | 2.86 | 2.59 | 0.92 | 56.3% | 24.1% | 2.33 | 0.233 | 0.236 | $8,900 | $10,600 | $6,300 |
| Scott Kazmir | LAD | L | A | CHC | 57.2 | 9.36 | 3.43 | 1.87 | 0.237 | 10.2% | 4.84 | 4.12 | 1.30 | 41.6% | 37.9% | 1.10 | 0.337 | 0.325 | $8,600 | $7,800 | $6,000 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | L | H | NYY | 64.2 | 5.85 | 2.78 | 0.97 | 0.238 | 8.8% | 3.20 | 4.48 | 1.18 | 44.4% | 34.4% | 1.29 | 0.252 | 0.313 | $8,400 | $7,400 | $6,150 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | R | A | ARI | 15.2 | 12.06 | 6.89 | 0.57 | 0.224 | 12.8% | 4.60 | 3.64 | 1.60 | 56.8% | 24.3% | 2.33 | 0.286 | 0.345 | $8,300 | $7,700 | $6,300 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | R | H | BOS | 41.2 | 7.99 | 1.94 | 1.30 | 0.238 | 11.6% | 3.24 | 3.77 | 1.13 | 46.7% | 35.2% | 1.33 | 0.189 | 0.366 | $8,200 | $6,800 | $6,200 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | R | A | PHI | 53.2 | 6.88 | 2.68 | 0.67 | 0.241 | 10.0% | 2.52 | 4.01 | 1.21 | 46.2% | 30.4% | 1.52 | 0.331 | 0.255 | $8,100 | $5,800 | $6,400 |
| James Shields | SD | R | A | SEA | 64.2 | 7.79 | 3.20 | 0.97 | 0.254 | 11.4% | 3.06 | 3.90 | 1.30 | 48.1% | 31.5% | 1.53 | 0.311 | 0.325 | $8,100 | $9,800 | $6,350 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | L | A | BAL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $7,600 | $6,100 | $6,000 |
| Hector Santiago | LAA | L | H | DET | 55.0 | 7.04 | 3.44 | 1.80 | 0.239 | 9.5% | 4.58 | 4.92 | 1.29 | 42.6% | 45.1% | 0.95 | 0.276 | 0.356 | $7,500 | $6,300 | $5,700 |
| Mat Latos | CHW | R | A | NYM | 51.0 | 4.59 | 3.18 | 1.41 | 0.267 | 6.7% | 4.06 | 5.24 | 1.41 | 44.5% | 37.6% | 1.18 | 0.337 | 0.334 | $7,300 | $6,700 | $5,850 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | R | A | CLE | 64.0 | 6.33 | 1.83 | 1.41 | 0.252 | 7.9% | 3.38 | 4.55 | 1.16 | 34.4% | 45.1% | 0.76 | 0.333 | 0.288 | $7,200 | $7,100 | N/A |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | L | A | TOR | 41.1 | 7.84 | 3.27 | 0.22 | 0.229 | 9.3% | 2.83 | 4.33 | 1.23 | 43.2% | 36.4% | 1.19 | 0.342 | 0.267 | $7,000 | $9,000 | $5,750 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | L | H | HOU | 62.0 | 6.39 | 2.76 | 1.45 | 0.260 | 8.8% | 4.21 | 4.12 | 1.32 | 52.3% | 29.5% | 1.77 | 0.290 | 0.343 | $7,000 | $8,100 | $5,850 |
| Dillon Gee | KC | R | H | TB | 35.0 | 8.23 | 3.34 | 1.80 | 0.273 | 10.2% | 3.86 | 4.30 | 1.46 | 40.8% | 36.9% | 1.11 | 0.392 | 0.291 | $6,900 | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | R | H | CIN | 39.1 | 10.30 | 2.97 | 0.69 | 0.257 | 11.3% | 5.95 | 3.14 | 1.32 | 45.2% | 27.9% | 1.62 | 0.325 | 0.301 | $6,800 | $7,400 | $5,750 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | R | A | LAA | 53.2 | 8.05 | 4.53 | 1.84 | 0.272 | 9.0% | 6.04 | 5.08 | 1.58 | 38.3% | 44.4% | 0.86 | 0.360 | 0.373 | $6,800 | $6,100 | $6,250 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | R | H | SF | 61.1 | 6.75 | 2.20 | 0.88 | 0.210 | 8.1% | 3.08 | 4.62 | 1.03 | 36.5% | 45.3% | 0.80 | 0.258 | 0.272 | $6,600 | $7,500 | $6,400 |
| Mike Leake | STL | R | A | MIL | 62.1 | 5.49 | 1.88 | 1.30 | 0.243 | 5.6% | 3.90 | 4.11 | 1.16 | 51.0% | 27.0% | 1.89 | 0.298 | 0.301 | $6,600 | $7,600 | $5,800 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | R | H | STL | 51.2 | 6.10 | 3.83 | 1.57 | 0.347 | 6.7% | 6.62 | 4.75 | 1.90 | 48.9% | 28.1% | 1.74 | 0.378 | 0.461 | $6,400 | $5,000 | $5,750 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | R | A | OAK | 36.2 | 7.36 | 1.96 | 0.74 | 0.272 | 8.3% | 3.93 | 3.81 | 1.31 | 47.8% | 30.4% | 1.57 | 0.372 | 0.280 | $6,100 | $7,200 | $5,500 |
| Jake Peavy | SF | R | A | ATL | 48.1 | 7.45 | 3.35 | 1.49 | 0.329 | 10.9% | 7.26 | 4.74 | 1.78 | 40.5% | 39.3% | 1.03 | 0.474 | 0.368 | $6,000 | $6,600 | $5,850 |
| Jon Moscot | CIN | R | A | COL | 15.2 | 3.45 | 5.17 | 2.30 | 0.206 | 4.9% | 4.02 | 5.89 | 1.40 | 36.5% | 30.8% | 1.19 | 0.372 | 0.296 | $5,700 | $4,000 | $5,350 |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | L | H | MIN | 22.0 | 4.91 | 5.73 | 1.64 | 0.302 | 6.3% | 6.55 | 6.87 | 1.95 | 28.6% | 41.7% | 0.69 | 0.434 | 0.382 | $5,300 | $5,900 | $5,400 |
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Jake Arrieta, CHC -- Best pitcher on the board, heavy ground ball rate, the Dodgers have just a .303 wOBA against righties this season and over the last week, that wOBA has dropped to .297 and they’re fanning at nearly a 26-percent rate.
Steven Matz, NYM – If Matt Harvey can do it, so can Matz? That might be the logic to use here as the White Sox have just a .254 wOBA with a 25.2-percent strikeout rate over the last week. They do hit southpaws better though, so don’t expect the shutout, though.
Gerrit Cole, PIT – He’s going to need his hot-hitting offense to step up against Jose Fernandez in order to get the win, but the Marlins offense continues to struggle with just a .293 wOBA over the past week and has minimal power as evidenced by their .116 ISO mark. Cole has also allowed just three runs over his last 26 innings (four starts).
Drew Smyly, TB – I don’t care what the Royals numbers look like over the past week as they beat up on a struggling White Sox bullpen and a Braves rotation that looks Triple-A at best. I’m more looking at Smyly’s solid wOBA splits and the Royals’ 26th-ranked .290 wOBA against lefties this year.
J.A. Happ, TOR – Once again, I hate recommending a Blue Jays pitcher at home and a pitcher facing the same team twice in a row, but Happ has held the Yankees to two runs in 13 innings (two starts) this year and one of those outings was at home. A .265 wOBA for New York over the last week doesn’t really inspire much faith in a comeback for them here. The caveat, as always, is that this is stil Happ we’re talking about and he could blow up at any minute.
Joe Ross, WAS – It should be a nice duel between him and Aaron Nola who fared well his last time out against the Nats. But when Nola faced Washington in Philly, he got slapped around pretty badly. So with that, I’m taking Ross and banking on the Phillies current .268 wOBA over the last week that also comes with a strikeout rate of 25-percent.
Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS – It’s his first time out and the Orioles are striking out at a 30.3-percent clip over the past week. I will almost certainly take a shot here for a buck in a FanDuel GPP, but that’s as high as I’ll go.
Mike Leake, STL – The Brewers current numbers, in my opinion, are recently inflated due to back-to-back series against the Reds and the Braves. Facing a veteran like Leake who has a strong ground ball rate and just a .301 wOBA against righties this year makes me believe in him more than them. There’s also the Brew Crew’s 27.2-percent strikeout rate against righties this season.
Jake Peavy, SF – If you like to pick on the Braves, then you may as well throw a Peavy dart here for a low-cost GPP. He managed a solid showing against the Padres his last time out and the Braves are sitting on just a .277 wOBA over the last seven days.
Just a hunch:
Tyler Duffey, MIN – Call it a gut feeling. His name just really stood out to me this morning while I was looking at the numbers. Facing Eric Surkamp is almost a guaranteed win if he makes it through five innings and the lefty bats of the A’s don’t exactly cause much fear. Duffey looked great in three starts before he struggled with the Blue Jays and the Royals. The numbers don’t tilt in his favor tremendously, but I just have a feeling…..