Short slate today and even a bit of a split as well. Just three early games today, so just make sure you’ve got your lineup plans straight. No need to break it down into the two different ones, but be aware that the Dodgers/Brewers, Twins/ White Sox and Yankees/Rangers all have early start times. Here’s how the data looks and, of course, some recommendations…
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Madison Bumgarner | SF | L | A | OAK | 108.1 | 10.13 | 2.41 | 0.83 | .204 | 12.8% | 1.99 | 3.27 | 1.02 | 42.6% | 36.0% | 1.18 | 0.202 | 0.278 | $12000 | $13000 | $7250 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | R | A | TOR | 56.0 | 7.88 | 2.09 | 1.45 | .237 | 12.7% | 2.73 | 3.46 | 1.11 | 53.8% | 24.7% | 2.18 | 0.316 | 0.295 | $10100 | $10800 | $6400 |
| John Lackey | CHI | R | A | NYM | 98.1 | 9.33 | 2.38 | 0.92 | .218 | 13.3% | 3.30 | 3.56 | 1.04 | 42.2% | 32.9% | 1.28 | 0.304 | 0.261 | $9500 | $10600 | $6600 |
| Kenta Maeda | LA | R | A | MIL | 86.2 | 8.62 | 2.49 | 0.83 | .220 | 12.2% | 2.91 | 3.65 | 1.11 | 46.7% | 31.7% | 1.47 | 0.277 | 0.270 | $9500 | $9500 | $6500 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | L | H | CHI | 76.2 | 8.57 | 1.53 | 0.70 | .259 | 10.4% | 3.29 | 3.17 | 1.19 | 57.1% | 24.1% | 2.37 | 0.303 | 0.283 | $9400 | $9400 | $6500 |
| Carlos Rodon | CWS | L | H | MIN | 81.1 | 9.07 | 2.88 | 1.22 | .287 | 10.1% | 4.09 | 3.90 | 1.49 | 47.5% | 32.6% | 1.46 | 0.243 | 0.359 | $9000 | $8500 | $6050 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | R | A | SEA | 94.2 | 8.37 | 3.14 | 1.24 | .236 | 11.0% | 3.52 | 3.90 | 1.22 | 45.5% | 35.4% | 1.29 | 0.344 | 0.288 | $8900 | $9200 | $6200 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | R | H | TEX | 83.1 | 10.37 | 2.16 | 1.51 | .287 | 15.1% | 5.51 | 3.34 | 1.42 | 45.0% | 31.8% | 1.42 | 0.359 | 0.361 | $8800 | $7800 | $6300 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | R | A | TB | 89.2 | 5.72 | 1.61 | 0.80 | .264 | 8.3% | 3.81 | 4.22 | 1.20 | 46.0% | 35.6% | 1.29 | 0.288 | 0.328 | $8700 | $8300 | $6400 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WSH | L | H | CIN | 85.2 | 9.24 | 2.84 | 0.95 | .267 | 10.5% | 4.73 | 3.74 | 1.37 | 51.2% | 27.8% | 1.84 | 0.241 | 0.338 | $8500 | $7400 | $6500 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | L | A | ATL | 86.1 | 7.51 | 1.98 | 1.67 | .271 | 9.6% | 5.00 | 4.13 | 1.29 | 39.8% | 36.4% | 1.09 | 0.302 | 0.347 | $8400 | $6900 | $5900 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TB | R | H | DET | 89.1 | 8.36 | 2.62 | 1.51 | .240 | 10.3% | 3.93 | 3.98 | 1.22 | 40.0% | 38.0% | 1.05 | 0.271 | 0.350 | $8300 | $7700 | $6250 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | R | H | LA | 74.2 | 7.84 | 2.53 | 1.08 | .242 | 8.8% | 3.74 | 3.93 | 1.18 | 47.4% | 28.6% | 1.66 | 0.335 | 0.285 | $8100 | $8000 | $5900 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | R | A | NYY | 38.0 | 8.06 | 3.55 | 0.71 | .200 | 8.8% | 3.08 | 4.32 | 1.13 | 37.1% | 42.9% | 0.87 | 0.291 | 0.255 | $8000 | $8400 | $5600 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | R | H | BAL | 75.2 | 8.33 | 1.78 | 1.67 | .240 | 10.4% | 3.45 | 3.69 | 1.16 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 1.43 | 0.265 | 0.351 | $7800 | $7900 | $6600 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | R | H | CLE | 95.2 | 6.21 | 3.20 | 1.60 | .253 | 10.1% | 4.23 | 4.57 | 1.33 | 47.5% | 32.0% | 1.48 | 0.371 | 0.316 | $7000 | $6600 | $5750 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | L | A | CWS | 27.0 | 6.67 | 2.67 | 1.67 | .299 | 8.4% | 5.33 | 4.29 | 1.52 | 51.7% | 27.0% | 1.92 | 0.385 | 0.352 | $6800 | $6100 | $5650 |
| Mike Leake | STL | R | H | KC | 91.0 | 5.83 | 1.48 | 1.38 | .272 | 5.8% | 4.25 | 4.10 | 1.24 | 53.0% | 26.7% | 1.99 | 0.325 | 0.311 | $6700 | $5900 | $6100 |
| Michael Foltynewicz | ATL | R | H | MIA | 33.1 | 7.56 | 1.89 | 1.62 | .268 | 9.3% | 3.51 | 4.18 | 1.26 | 40.4% | 37.4% | 1.08 | 0.425 | 0.287 | $6400 | $7200 | $5800 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | L | A | WSH | 94.0 | 6.42 | 4.21 | 1.15 | .233 | 9.6% | 3.83 | 5.00 | 1.32 | 43.3% | 32.6% | 1.33 | 0.337 | 0.305 | $6200 | $6700 | $6250 |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | L | H | SF | 5.2 | 4.76 | 3.18 | 4.76 | 0.292 | 10.2% | 4.76 | 6.10 | 1.59 | 38.1% | 47.6% | 0.80 | 0.673 | 0.404 | $5,600 | $4,900 | $5,600 |
| Chris Young | KC | R | A | STL | 53.2 | 9.23 | 3.86 | 3.52 | .282 | 12.2% | 6.54 | 4.62 | 1.57 | 28.4% | 49.4% | 0.58 | 0.537 | 0.298 | $5,500 | $4,100 | $5500 |
Before I get to my recommendations, let me just throw out to you why I am NOT paying up for Madison Bumgarner today because I know I’m going to be asked. This series between the A’s and the Giants has been an offensive throwdown for the A’s who have out-slugged the Giants 28-15 through the first three games. That, plus the fact that Bumgarner has a 4.79 ERA over his last three starts against Oakland (6.59 ERA over two starts at E. Coli Stadium or whatever it’s called over there in the East Bay) makes me think I can spend my money a little better. Now maybe he turns it around because the Giants are going to let him bat instead of using the DH and that might keep his head in the game more, but that’s not a chance I’m willing to take. Just sayin’…
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John Lackey, CHC – The 10-straight quality start streak took a hit from the Marlins his last time out, but Lackey is a smart veteran who should have zero problem bouncing back. The Mets are just what the doctor ordered here as their .262 wOBA and .076 ISO over the last week should have Lackey owners salivating. Their strikeout rate in that span is close to 21-percent as well, so enjoy the numbers today.
Kenta Maeda, LAD – If you can accept the fact that Maedea will give up a few runs – perhaps post just the minimum for a quality start – then you can focus on the fact that the Brewers have posted a 30-percent strikeout rate over the past week. When they connect, they can produce, but with Maeda’s 12.2-percent swinging strike rate, they are likely to have some trouble while up there hacking away.
Carlos Rodon, CHW – He faced the Twins back in April and held them scoreless for six innings with a strikeout per inning and should be able to do it again this time around. Minnesota has a .309 wOBA with a 24.5-percent K-rate against lefties this season and those numbers drop to .302 and 24.8-percent if you look at the last seven days.
Jordan Zimmermann, DET – The Rays have been facing a lot of lefties lately which has skewed their wOBA over the past week, so in this match-up, I’m more looking at their numbers against right-handed pitching and those numbers do not look good. Not only is their .303 wOBA disappointing, but it comes with a hearty 25.1-percent strikeout rate. Zimmermann’s K-rate has been disappointing, but he’s shown the ability to post at least a strikeout per inning against some of the more free-swinging clubs in the majors.
Gio Gionzalez, WAS – The Reds continue to struggle for consistent production and are sitting on a 29th-ranked .277 wOBA with a 21.7-percent strikeout rate over the last seven days. That strikeout rate pops up to 22.1-percent against lefties and their .306 wOBA against them ranks just 25th in the majors.
Wei-Yin Chen, MIA – The only thing better than picking on the Braves is picking on the Braves when they’re facing a lefty. Chen has faced them twice this season and has a 2.38 ERA with an 11:2 K:BB over 11.1 innings, so look for the momentum to continue. The Braves have a .262 wOBA with a 22.1-percent strikeout rate and .085 ISO versus southpaws this season.
Zach Davies, MIL – In truth, I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop with Davies, but while the Ntas may have gotten to him a little bit his last time out, it wasn’t bad at all and he still fanned nine over five innings. He held the Dodgers to one run over seven innings two starts ago and since then, the Dodgers have posted just a .286 wOBA with a weak .116 ISO. They haven’t been striking out as much lately, but Davies should still ring up his fair share. If the bats can get to Maeda, then he could even sneak away with the win.