Quite the interesting slate here as there a bunch of marquee names with mediocre match-ups and a few extra low-cost darts I like for GPP play. The middle levels of the pricing tiers, however, don’t really inspire me a whole lot. Should make for quite the interesting night, indeed. Here’s a look at the data and, as always, some recommendations.
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Max Scherzer | WSH | R | A | MIL | 101.1 | 11.37 | 2.13 | 1.60 | .202 | 16.5% | 3.29 | 2.93 | 0.98 | 36.8% | 44.4% | 0.83 | 0.355 | 0.207 | $11900 | $13900 | $7700 |
| David Price | BOS | L | A | TEX | 99.2 | 9.85 | 2.17 | 1.17 | .236 | 13.7% | 4.24 | 3.30 | 1.12 | 46.3% | 31.3% | 1.48 | 0.288 | 0.302 | $10700 | $11100 | $6850 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | L | A | ATL | 72.1 | 9.08 | 1.62 | 0.62 | .245 | 10.9% | 2.74 | 3.07 | 1.13 | 56.2% | 24.6% | 2.28 | 0.280 | 0.271 | $10400 | $10600 | $7000 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | R | A | DET | 80.2 | 10.71 | 3.90 | 0.67 | .183 | 12.9% | 2.23 | 3.36 | 1.12 | 51.1% | 33.0% | 1.55 | 0.214 | 0.290 | $10000 | $13000 | $6600 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | R | H | MIN | 92.2 | 6.61 | 1.55 | 0.78 | .223 | 11.7% | 2.91 | 3.65 | 1.00 | 54.5% | 23.5% | 2.32 | 0.237 | 0.281 | $9500 | $8800 | $6850 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | R | H | CLE | 86.0 | 5.65 | 1.67 | 0.84 | .252 | 8.4% | 3.24 | 4.21 | 1.15 | 46.0% | 36.9% | 1.25 | 0.262 | 0.319 | $9200 | $7100 | $6500 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | R | A | CWS | 91.1 | 8.77 | 3.05 | 0.79 | .239 | 9.2% | 3.35 | 3.42 | 1.25 | 58.2% | 20.7% | 2.81 | 0.311 | 0.280 | $9100 | $11400 | $6200 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHI | R | A | MIA | 79.2 | 8.24 | 1.92 | 0.68 | .213 | 9.5% | 2.94 | 3.35 | 1.02 | 57.9% | 24.8% | 2.34 | 0.273 | 0.251 | $8800 | $9500 | $6300 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | R | A | SEA | 82.1 | 7.22 | 2.95 | 0.66 | .214 | 10.2% | 3.17 | 3.81 | 1.09 | 59.9% | 22.9% | 2.62 | 0.316 | 0.201 | $8500 | $10000 | $6400 |
| Edinson Volquez | KC | R | H | HOU | 91.2 | 7.16 | 3.14 | 0.88 | .257 | 9.6% | 4.12 | 4.11 | 1.35 | 55.0% | 24.8% | 2.22 | 0.286 | 0.331 | $8100 | $8200 | $6200 |
| Carlos Rodon | CWS | L | H | TOR | 75.2 | 8.80 | 2.85 | 1.31 | .289 | 9.9% | 4.16 | 3.93 | 1.49 | 48.0% | 31.7% | 1.51 | 0.236 | 0.364 | $8000 | $7400 | $6200 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | L | A | KC | 94.2 | 8.27 | 2.66 | 1.05 | .275 | 10.1% | 5.32 | 3.42 | 1.38 | 61.6% | 18.6% | 3.31 | 0.285 | 0.347 | $7700 | $7600 | $6250 |
| Matt Moore | TB | L | A | BAL | 82.2 | 8.50 | 2.72 | 1.63 | .276 | 11.6% | 4.90 | 4.04 | 1.38 | 42.4% | 38.3% | 1.11 | 0.313 | 0.353 | $7500 | $7000 | $6100 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | R | H | CHI | 78.0 | 7.50 | 4.62 | 0.46 | .249 | 10.0% | 3.92 | 4.75 | 1.49 | 49.3% | 28.8% | 1.71 | 0.364 | 0.264 | $7300 | $7800 | $5700 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | R | H | LA | 18.0 | 6.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 | .254 | 6.0% | 3.50 | 3.88 | 1.11 | 54.7% | 26.4% | 2.07 | 0.343 | 0.318 | $7200 | $7500 | $6000 |
| Jake Peavy | SF | R | H | PHI | 72.1 | 7.34 | 2.61 | 1.00 | .286 | 11.4% | 5.48 | 4.41 | 1.44 | 42.0% | 35.1% | 1.20 | 0.392 | 0.323 | $7100 | $6900 | $5950 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | R | H | TB | 23.0 | 5.48 | 4.30 | 0.78 | .308 | 5.7% | 6.26 | 5.47 | 1.70 | 40.5% | 31.6% | 1.28 | 0.380 | 0.354 | $7100 | $6700 | $5900 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | R | H | WSH | 69.2 | 7.24 | 2.58 | 1.16 | .235 | 8.8% | 3.62 | 4.04 | 1.15 | 48.5% | 27.7% | 1.75 | 0.326 | 0.286 | $7100 | $8600 | $5800 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | L | A | NYY | 23.1 | 7.33 | 2.31 | 1.93 | .292 | 9.0% | 5.79 | 3.90 | 1.41 | 52.1% | 26.8% | 1.95 | 0.440 | 0.345 | $7000 | $6000 | $5600 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | R | H | OAK | 84.2 | 5.00 | 2.13 | 1.91 | .294 | 8.6% | 5.10 | 5.32 | 1.42 | 31.8% | 43.2% | 0.74 | 0.367 | 0.366 | $6800 | $6400 | $5850 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | R | A | COL | 41.0 | 9.66 | 4.17 | 1.54 | .222 | 9.8% | 4.83 | 3.87 | 1.32 | 48.2% | 30.9% | 1.56 | 0.369 | 0.273 | $6700 | $5700 | $5550 |
| Wade LeBlanc | SEA | L | H | STL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $6500 | $4000 | $5400 |
| Cody Reed | CIN | L | H | SD | 7.0 | 11.57 | 3.86 | 2.57 | 0.240 | 16.3% | 5.14 | 3.26 | 1.29 | 43.8% | 37.5% | 1.17 | 0.000 | 0.415 | $6,500 | $7,200 | $5,850 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | R | H | BOS | 7.0 | 3.86 | 5.14 | 0.00 | .333 | 8.8% | 5.14 | 7.19 | 2.00 | 51.9% | 25.9% | 2.00 | 0.386 | 0.414 | $6200 | $4000 | $5400 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | L | H | ARI | 12.0 | 7.50 | 0.75 | 0.00 | .222 | 9.8% | 2.25 | 2.72 | 0.92 | 64.7% | 17.6% | 3.67 | 0.057 | 0.271 | $6000 | $6800 | $5450 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | R | A | SF | 8.1 | 5.40 | 3.24 | 3.24 | .333 | 6.1% | 10.80 | 6.25 | 2.04 | 32.4% | 41.2% | 0.79 | 0.287 | 0.516 | $5500 | $4000 | $5500 |
| Colin Rea | SD | R | A | CIN | 71.2 | 6.78 | 3.27 | 0.88 | .258 | 7.3% | 5.02 | 4.78 | 1.41 | 48.8% | 24.0% | 2.04 | 0.315 | 0.331 | $5200 | $5300 | $5750 |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | L | A | LAA | 35.0 | 5.14 | 4.37 | 1.80 | .333 | 7.3% | 7.20 | 6.67 | 1.97 | 33.6% | 36.6% | 0.92 | 0.416 | 0.415 | $4800 | $4000 | $5400 |
| Aaron Blair | ATL | R | H | NYM | 46.1 | 5.25 | 4.66 | 1.36 | .298 | 9.0% | 7.19 | 5.85 | 1.71 | 42.3% | 35.3% | 1.20 | 0.392 | 0.365 | $4500 | $5,100 | $5500 |
| Nick Tepesch | LA | R | A | PIT | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $4000 | $5250 |
.jpg)
Max Scherzer, WAS – The top guy on the board and rightfully so when you match up his 11.37 K/9 with the Brewers’ 25.9-percent strikeout rate against right-handers this year. That K-rate has actually jumped to 27.6-percent over the last week and while home runs are always an issue for Scherzer, the Brewers have posted just a .124 ISO over the last seven days with only a 25th-ranked 10.3-percent HR/FB in that span.
David Price, BOS – The Rangers have hit lefties well all year and are solid at home, but over this past week, the bats are running cold. Their .280 wOBA and 68 wRC+ over the last week are awful and they’ve posted just a .126 ISO in that span. Price has been crazy good with eight-straight quality starts and has gone eight innings in each of his last three outings with a dazzling 25:2 K:BB.
Steven Matz, NYM – The Braves are trying to prove that they’re not the offensive bottom-feeders we’ve seen all year, but a .310 wOBA in the past week isn’t going to wow anyone. They’re still ranked dead last with a .260 wOBA and .586 OPS against southpaws this year and that comes with a 22.6-percent strikeout rate.
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY – Tanaka’s swing-and-miss stuff (11.7-percent swinging strike rate) and the Twins’ 22.3-percent strikeout rate against RHP are what I’m focused on here. Minnesota has been hitting the ball well lately and hitting for some nice power, but they still have just a .305 wOBA and .147 ISo against righties this year. Tough to trust in a guy who is facing the same team in back-to-back starts, but he really at the Twins lunch last time with eight innings of one-run ball, five strikeouts and no walks.
Aaron Sanchez, TOR – I’m still not a fan of the walk rate, but Sanchez has looked strong in three of his last four starts and has 31 strikeouts over his last 25.2 innings. The White Sox have a .309 wOBA over the last seven days (.305 vs RHP all year) and a massive 25.6-percent strikeout rate in that span. Some real nice upside here if he can keep the lefty bats at bay.
Yovani Gallardo, BAL – I’ve never been a fan of Gallardo and had reservations when the Orioles signed him. I don’t own him in any seasonal leagues and have yet to use him in DFS, but there’s a first time for everything, right? It’s worth the dart to give him a try though today as the Rays have posted an unheard of .207 wOBA with a .485 OPS over the past seven days. That’s beyond ice cold. That’s freezer burned. Either Gallardo is going to look like an absolute beast or this is the Rays’ slumpbuster. I’m taking action on both sides in GPPs today.
Jered Weaver, LAA – He tossed a complete-game shutout against these same A’s his last time on the hill and the A’s haven’t looked any better since with their .280 wOBA and .122 ISO over the past week. I don’t think he blanks them again, but he could be a decent second pitcher option on Draft Kings and Aces.
Colin Rea, SD – The ground ball rate makes me smile a little more with the road start in hitter-friendly Great American, but so do the Reds’ .295 wOBA and 21.7-percent strikeout rate over the last week. The Cincy bats were hot for a couple of weeks but have significantly cooled off and now they’re posting just a .296 wOBA against righties on the year.
Aaron Blair, ATL – Can’t guarantee the win here with a lefty on the hill the other way, but the Mets are ice cold and a perfect target right now with all their injuries. They’ve posted just a .259 wOBA over the past week, their .154 ISO in that span is below league average and a 63 wRC+ ranks 29th for the time period as well. You may as well give it a shot!