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Looks like it’s a day where paying up for pitching is going to be the norm. There are some scattered low-cost options out there you can use for GPPs, but overall, I’m likely to invest heavily in the arms and try to find myself some real nice bargains with the bat. This will probably be a heavy cash game day for me and I’ll throw darts when there are fewer high-end options available. Here’s a look at the data and my recommendations:
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Jose Fernandez | MIA | R | H | NYM | 113.2 | 13.30 | 2.38 | 0.63 | .204 | 15.8% | 2.53 | 2.24 | 1.01 | 47.7% | 26.8% | 1.78 | 0.292 | 0.216 | $12100 | $13900 | $7600 |
| Max Scherzer | WSH | R | H | SD | 134.2 | 11.43 | 2.27 | 1.40 | .194 | 16.7% | 2.94 | 2.96 | 0.96 | 37.5% | 43.5% | 0.86 | 0.316 | 0.221 | $11800 | $13100 | $7700 |
| Chris Sale | CWS | L | H | DET | 133.0 | 8.73 | 1.89 | 1.15 | .216 | 11.6% | 3.18 | 3.60 | 1.01 | 42.5% | 34.4% | 1.24 | 0.265 | 0.278 | $10900 | $12300 | $7200 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | R | A | MIA | 102.0 | 8.65 | 2.03 | 0.79 | .222 | 11.9% | 2.38 | 3.28 | 1.03 | 50.6% | 26.9% | 1.88 | 0.247 | 0.290 | $10600 | $11400 | $7000 |
| David Price | BOS | L | H | MIN | 130.0 | 9.77 | 1.94 | 1.11 | .262 | 13.4% | 4.36 | 3.32 | 1.23 | 45.7% | 29.5% | 1.55 | 0.319 | 0.316 | $10100 | $11100 | $6550 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | L | A | KC | 120.0 | 8.70 | 3.53 | 1.20 | .235 | 13.4% | 3.00 | 3.94 | 1.28 | 51.1% | 28.9% | 1.77 | 0.251 | 0.325 | $9300 | $9400 | $6750 |
| John Lackey | CHI | R | A | MIL | 124.2 | 9.24 | 2.67 | 1.08 | .223 | 12.7% | 3.75 | 3.74 | 1.10 | 40.7% | 34.6% | 1.18 | 0.294 | 0.290 | $8800 | $10600 | $7000 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SF | R | A | NYY | 122.1 | 6.91 | 2.06 | 1.25 | .250 | 10.2% | 4.05 | 3.99 | 1.21 | 48.1% | 31.6% | 1.52 | 0.358 | 0.278 | $8500 | $7200 | $6750 |
| Kenta Maeda | LA | R | A | STL | 108.0 | 9.33 | 2.42 | 0.92 | .223 | 12.8% | 3.25 | 3.52 | 1.12 | 45.3% | 32.7% | 1.38 | 0.294 | 0.267 | $8500 | $8500 | $6600 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | R | A | BAL | 107.2 | 6.02 | 0.92 | 1.84 | .254 | 7.4% | 3.34 | 4.16 | 1.11 | 42.4% | 36.7% | 1.16 | 0.302 | 0.329 | $8400 | $8000 | $6300 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | R | A | TOR | 121.1 | 6.75 | 1.85 | 1.34 | .274 | 8.9% | 4.01 | 4.27 | 1.29 | 41.3% | 37.6% | 1.10 | 0.347 | 0.318 | $8300 | $8600 | $6400 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | R | H | CLE | 93.1 | 8.49 | 1.93 | 1.54 | .270 | 12.3% | 4.05 | 3.59 | 1.29 | 47.8% | 32.4% | 1.48 | 0.275 | 0.374 | $8200 | $6500 | $6000 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | L | A | CIN | 104.1 | 10.52 | 3.45 | 1.12 | .277 | 11.6% | 4.49 | 3.65 | 1.51 | 48.1% | 26.1% | 1.84 | 0.296 | 0.360 | $7800 | $8300 | $5650 |
| Drew Smyly | TB | L | A | OAK | 105.1 | 9.49 | 2.39 | 1.79 | .278 | 13.0% | 5.64 | 3.79 | 1.36 | 36.2% | 42.2% | 0.86 | 0.330 | 0.354 | $7700 | $5900 | $6300 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | R | A | PIT | 102.0 | 9.79 | 1.85 | 0.88 | .256 | 10.4% | 4.41 | 3.04 | 1.24 | 57.6% | 20.0% | 2.88 | 0.301 | 0.299 | $7700 | $8100 | $6200 |
| Yordano Ventura | KC | R | H | TEX | 101.1 | 6.66 | 3.64 | 1.15 | .258 | 9.1% | 4.97 | 4.60 | 1.41 | 50.5% | 31.2% | 1.62 | 0.327 | 0.324 | $7700 | $5400 | $5900 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | R | H | LAA | 108.0 | 8.67 | 2.75 | 1.08 | .287 | 11.8% | 4.25 | 3.84 | 1.45 | 46.3% | 35.3% | 1.31 | 0.362 | 0.333 | $7600 | $7100 | $6300 |
| Mike Leake | STL | R | H | LA | 117.0 | 6.70 | 1.23 | 1.15 | .267 | 7.5% | 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.20 | 54.0% | 25.1% | 2.15 | 0.317 | 0.304 | $7500 | $8100 | $6000 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | R | H | SEA | 122.2 | 6.38 | 3.15 | 1.69 | .249 | 10.6% | 4.11 | 4.55 | 1.30 | 44.9% | 34.5% | 1.30 | 0.360 | 0.321 | $7400 | $8400 | $5900 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | R | H | CHI | 92.2 | 7.38 | 2.33 | 1.17 | .253 | 8.5% | 3.79 | 3.91 | 1.21 | 49.4% | 28.4% | 1.74 | 0.351 | 0.277 | $7100 | $6800 | $5800 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | R | H | SF | 86.0 | 6.80 | 1.99 | 1.67 | .277 | 9.6% | 4.92 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 56.4% | 26.1% | 2.16 | 0.367 | 0.335 | $7000 | $6600 | $6050 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | R | A | HOU | 107.2 | 5.01 | 2.26 | 1.76 | .291 | 8.9% | 5.02 | 5.29 | 1.41 | 31.9% | 43.9% | 0.73 | 0.355 | 0.363 | $6700 | $6200 | $5750 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | R | A | COL | 111.2 | 6.85 | 2.34 | 1.45 | .263 | 10.3% | 4.68 | 4.48 | 1.32 | 40.6% | 39.8% | 1.02 | 0.357 | 0.291 | $6700 | $4100 | $6300 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | R | H | TB | 101.2 | 5.84 | 2.74 | 1.15 | .280 | 9.1% | 4.25 | 4.45 | 1.41 | 54.7% | 25.8% | 2.12 | 0.368 | 0.306 | $6600 | $7900 | $5650 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | L | H | ATL | 42.0 | 7.50 | 1.71 | 0.86 | .272 | 11.1% | 3.43 | 3.31 | 1.26 | 63.0% | 20.5% | 3.08 | 0.267 | 0.332 | $6300 | $5700 | $5800 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | L | A | CWS | 40.1 | 7.59 | 3.12 | 1.12 | .250 | 8.8% | 4.91 | 4.38 | 1.31 | 42.3% | 37.4% | 1.13 | 0.248 | 0.331 | $6200 | $6000 | $5550 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | R | A | BOS | 114.2 | 6.67 | 1.96 | 1.26 | .290 | 9.6% | 5.02 | 4.17 | 1.35 | 44.1% | 34.5% | 1.28 | 0.316 | 0.360 | $5800 | $4300 | $5700 |
| Edwin Jackson | SD | R | A | WSH | 10.2 | 5.90 | 4.22 | 1.69 | .317 | 9.9% | 5.91 | 5.44 | 1.78 | 37.5% | 46.9% | 0.80 | 0.292 | 0.359 | $5700 | $5500 | $5300 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | R | H | ARI | 16.1 | 8.82 | 7.16 | 2.76 | .292 | 10.1% | 5.51 | 6.02 | 2.02 | 35.3% | 41.2% | 0.86 | 0.392 | 0.447 | $5300 | $4000 | $5200 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | R | H | PHI | 5.1 | 8.44 | 3.38 | 1.69 | .167 | 10.3% | 6.75 | 3.52 | 0.94 | 53.8% | 23.1% | 2.33 | 0.278 | 0.335 | $4600 | $7800 | $6400 |
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Jose Fernandez, MIA – He’s the top guy on the board and well worth the heavy price tag. The Mets have reigned in the strikeouts recently, but the stud righty should have them helplessly flailing away once again. He’s faced them twice this season and has allowed one run over 12 innings with 19 strikeouts. ‘Nuff said.
Max Scherzer, WAS – Always prone to the long ball, but Scherzer should do more than enough to keep the hapless Padres at bay. An occasional outburst against a guy like Tanner Roark is one thing, but something tells me a team that strikes out 24.6-percent of the time against right-handers is going to have trouble with Scherzer.
Chris Sale, CHW – I’m not the biggest fan of this match-up, but Sale has done solid work against Detroit this season. In his last start against the Tigers, he held them to three runs over seven innings. With Detroit now posting just a .286 wOBA with a .126 ISO over the last seven days, Sale should be able to post another solid outing. Will it be worth the price tag? Hard to say. I lean away, but would never begrudge anyone using the guy.
Jacob deGrom, NYM – He’ll probably have a tough time wrestling the win against Fernandez, but deGrom should be able to have a strong outing against the Marlins who have posted just a .280 wOBA with a 20.7-percent strikeout rate over the last seven days. He’s faced them just once this season, but he held them to just two runs over seven innings with seven strikeouts during that outing.
David Price, BOS – The rollercoaster season for Price continues as his last five outings have been more miss than hit, but how do you not use him against the Twins here? He hasn’t faced them this season, but has a 1.83 ERA over nine starts against them over the last few seasons and they’re currently offering a .256 wOBA with a 26.4-percent strikeout rate over the last week.
John Lackey, CHC – I’ve been riding the Lackey train all year in both seasonal and daily play. He looked a little tired to close out the first half and hit a few speed bumps in his first game back from the All Star break, but overall, my confidence remains high. The Brewers have been struggling all year against right-handed pitching – 26.2-percent K-rate and a 24th-ranked .305 wOBA. Add in that their strikeout rate over the last week has been on par with their season-long struggles and they’ve posted just a .278 wOBA in that span, I think the Lackey train moves full speed ahead.
Aaron Nola, PHI – His first start back from the break looked much more like the Nola we all knew and loved in the DFS world and now he’ll take on the Pirates who have come out for the second half with a whimper. We’re talking a .263 wOBA with a 20.5-percent strikeout rate over the last seven days. The win could be a tough one though. As you continue to read, you’ll see why.
Tyler Glasnow, PIT – Given the price tag on FanDuel, how could you not be salivating here? His pricing on DK and Aces is much more in line with where it should be, but Glasnow versus the Phillies is almost an automatic on FD. This isn’t the Cardinals; this is the Phillies. This is a club that ranks 28th in the league with a .289 wOBA against right-handers this season and has posted a .250 wOBA with a 25-percent strikeout rate over the past week. Get those lineups in!