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I’ll admit it. Today is one of those days where things can get a little out of hand for me. I’ve got a select number of higher-priced starters who I really like and will use in my cash games, but there is also an unusually high number of lower-priced guys I like for GPP play and that’s where I get into trouble. Before I know it, I’ve set up a dozen different lineups and I’m just not that type of DFS player. I like to go small and gradually build. I know, you have to take some risks if you want to win big, but I also want to be responsible with my bankroll. It’s way too easy to get caught up in a bunch of GPP tournaments and contrarian plays and low-priced starters and Coors Field exposure and on and on and on.
So my suggestion, as always, is to play responsibly. Set a limit, stick to it and don’t look back. Yes, I’ve also had a ton of nights where I look at the boxscores and cringe, thinking, “Damn. I was on that guy too. I wanted to play him and knew I should,” but unless you’ve got a substantial of expendable cash at your disposal, you have to stay within your means and understand that, while maybe you could…you can’t play ‘em all.
That being said, here’s how it all looks for me today…
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | R | H | CWS | 157.0 | 8.95 | 2.01 | 0.75 | .214 | 13.2% | 3.21 | 3.25 | 1.01 | 49.4% | 32.2% | 1.53 | 0.277 | 0.251 | $10700 | $11400 | $7800 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | R | H | KC | 160.1 | 9.54 | 2.41 | 1.07 | .216 | 13.2% | 3.42 | 3.62 | 1.06 | 37.8% | 40.9% | 0.92 | 0.274 | 0.291 | $10000 | $12900 | $7600 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | R | A | ARI | 134.1 | 10.92 | 1.74 | 0.54 | .255 | 16.0% | 2.75 | 2.64 | 1.18 | 52.2% | 23.3% | 2.23 | 0.322 | 0.260 | $10000 | $11000 | $7900 |
| Danny Duffy | KC | L | A | DET | 124.1 | 9.99 | 1.81 | 1.01 | .220 | 15.0% | 2.82 | 3.30 | 1.01 | 37.7% | 42.2% | 0.89 | 0.210 | 0.295 | $9600 | $12700 | $7350 |
| Jason Hammel | CHI | R | H | MIL | 127.1 | 7.49 | 2.76 | 1.13 | .217 | 10.6% | 2.90 | 4.06 | 1.08 | 47.1% | 32.3% | 1.46 | 0.334 | 0.258 | $9600 | $10200 | $7450 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | L | H | STL | 148.0 | 7.66 | 2.68 | 1.03 | .259 | 10.4% | 4.56 | 3.59 | 1.30 | 60.0% | 20.5% | 2.93 | 0.263 | 0.336 | $9000 | $8400 | $7500 |
| Jose Quintana | CWS | L | A | CLE | 151.2 | 7.89 | 2.02 | 0.89 | .233 | 8.6% | 2.85 | 3.83 | 1.10 | 40.5% | 38.4% | 1.06 | 0.248 | 0.295 | $8700 | $9200 | $7650 |
| Kenta Maeda | LA | R | A | PHI | 130.2 | 8.88 | 2.14 | 1.03 | .224 | 12.3% | 3.31 | 3.56 | 1.09 | 45.5% | 32.7% | 1.39 | 0.295 | 0.267 | $8700 | $9500 | $7900 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | R | A | NYY | 128.1 | 8.49 | 3.23 | 1.05 | .186 | 12.0% | 2.95 | 4.15 | 1.04 | 36.0% | 44.7% | 0.80 | 0.280 | 0.257 | $8600 | $9700 | $7100 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | L | A | HOU | 137.1 | 7.47 | 2.69 | 0.85 | .256 | 9.5% | 3.93 | 3.74 | 1.30 | 60.1% | 22.2% | 2.71 | 0.293 | 0.314 | $8400 | $9300 | $6750 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | R | H | TOR | 131.1 | 10.41 | 2.54 | 1.44 | .268 | 15.1% | 5.07 | 3.35 | 1.36 | 46.0% | 31.9% | 1.44 | 0.345 | 0.342 | $8400 | $7900 | $6550 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | R | H | LA | 107.1 | 10.06 | 3.35 | 1.17 | .262 | 12.6% | 3.94 | 3.75 | 1.36 | 38.2% | 38.2% | 1.00 | 0.352 | 0.306 | $8200 | $8000 | $6200 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SF | R | H | PIT | 146.2 | 6.57 | 2.21 | 1.29 | .253 | 9.6% | 4.23 | 4.14 | 1.23 | 48.7% | 30.6% | 1.59 | 0.353 | 0.289 | $8100 | $7600 | $6800 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | R | H | MIA | 72.1 | 7.84 | 2.12 | 1.12 | .263 | 10.0% | 3.11 | 3.99 | 1.22 | 42.2% | 33.0% | 1.28 | 0.384 | 0.238 | $8000 | $8200 | $6650 |
| Blake Snell | TB | L | H | SD | 56.2 | 9.22 | 4.92 | 0.48 | .253 | 10.5% | 3.18 | 4.40 | 1.52 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.35 | 0.299 | 0.312 | $7900 | $8700 | $6950 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | R | A | ATL | 126.2 | 6.61 | 2.13 | 0.99 | .258 | 9.7% | 3.62 | 4.14 | 1.23 | 45.0% | 33.2% | 1.35 | 0.280 | 0.330 | $7600 | $9000 | $6500 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | R | A | SF | 60.0 | 7.05 | 1.20 | 1.05 | .253 | 8.9% | 2.85 | 3.34 | 1.08 | 56.4% | 21.2% | 2.66 | 0.321 | 0.255 | $7600 | $9100 | $7100 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | L | A | BAL | 64.2 | 7.38 | 2.92 | 1.81 | .280 | 10.6% | 5.43 | 4.66 | 1.45 | 32.7% | 43.7% | 0.75 | 0.337 | 0.363 | $7100 | $5700 | $6600 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WSH | L | A | COL | 133.2 | 8.55 | 3.10 | 1.01 | .253 | 10.4% | 4.24 | 3.99 | 1.32 | 49.5% | 29.1% | 1.70 | 0.266 | 0.329 | $7000 | $5900 | $6700 |
| Edwin Jackson | SD | R | A | TB | 42.3 | 5.57 | 3.56 | 0.84 | .227 | 10.9% | 3.62 | 4.93 | 3.02 | 45.5% | 34.8% | 1.30 | 0.295 | 0.330 | $7000 | $5800 | $6350 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | R | H | NYM | 24.1 | 6.29 | 4.07 | 1.48 | .227 | 8.3% | 2.96 | 4.77 | 1.32 | 47.1% | 34.3% | 1.38 | 0.306 | 0.345 | $6800 | $7400 | $6500 |
| Lucas Harrell | TEX | R | H | OAK | 44.3 | 8.61 | 4.20 | 0.80 | .300 | 8.5% | 5.75 | 4.84 | 2.98 | 45.9% | 29.3% | 1.56 | 0.298 | 0.359 | $6700 | $6000 | $6000 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | R | A | CHI | 59.2 | 5.13 | 3.17 | 1.06 | .288 | 8.1% | 4.83 | 4.83 | 1.54 | 55.0% | 25.1% | 2.19 | 0.377 | 0.325 | $6600 | $5500 | $6350 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | R | A | CHI | 111.1 | 7.19 | 3.31 | 1.70 | .269 | 9.0% | 4.93 | 4.71 | 1.41 | 38.2% | 37.6% | 1.02 | 0.286 | 0.417 | $6400 | $6100 | $5500 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | R | H | BOS | 78.1 | 6.55 | 4.60 | 1.15 | .281 | 7.0% | 5.17 | 5.10 | 1.60 | 43.2% | 34.6% | 1.25 | 0.363 | 0.348 | $6400 | $4200 | $5900 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | R | H | WSH | 138.1 | 6.83 | 2.54 | 1.11 | .292 | 9.9% | 5.27 | 4.15 | 1.48 | 54.7% | 23.0% | 2.38 | 0.340 | 0.356 | $6000 | $4500 | $5600 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | L | A | LAA | 9.0 | 18.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | .364 | 6.1% | 13.50 | 3.67 | 3.57 | 30.0% | 40.0% | 0.75 | 0.453 | 0.403 | $5900 | $4000 | $5700 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | R | A | TEX | 37.2 | 9.08 | 2.63 | 0.96 | .297 | 11.0% | 5.50 | 3.67 | 1.54 | 54.7% | 23.1% | 2.37 | 0.338 | 0.360 | $5600 | $4000 | $5700 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | LAA | R | H | SEA | 98.2 | 9.12 | 3.56 | 1.09 | .274 | 7.9% | 5.40 | 4.46 | 2.97 | 52.9% | 28.0% | 1.89 | 0.358 | 0.339 | $5500 | $4000 | $5350 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | R | A | CIN | 36.1 | 6.19 | 2.72 | 0.99 | .286 | 10.8% | 6.69 | 4.85 | 1.57 | 52.5% | 25.8% | 2.03 | 0.353 | 0.349 | $5200 | $4700 | $6250 |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | R | H | MIN | 33.0 | 4.37 | 3.27 | 1.36 | .262 | 8.6% | 4.09 | 5.41 | 1.39 | 43.1% | 35.3% | 1.22 | 0.339 | 0.348 | $4800 | $4000 | $5800 |
| Trevor Cahill | CHI | R | H | MIL | 41.0 | 10.10 | 4.83 | 1.10 | .209 | 12.6% | 3.07 | 4.15 | 1.39 | 55.5% | 21.8% | 2.54 | 0.319 | 0.279 | $4000 | $4000 | $5350 |
Corey Kluber, CLE – He’s got six straight quality starts and a fairly solid history against the White Sox, including a one run over 7.1 innings victory against them earlier this season. The White Sox may have a .320 wOBA over the past week, but I’m focusing more on the paltry .107 ISO it comes with as well as the fact that the White Sox rank just 24th in the league with a .306 wOBA against righties this season.
Justin Verlander, DET – Please tell me you’ve suppressed the lingering doubt about Verlander’s resurgence. He’s throwing some good, good ball lately. I’m talking six-straight quality starts and he hasn’t allowed more than two run in any of his last eight starts, including a 10-strikeout performance while limiting these same Royals to one run over seven innings just one month ago. Well, the Royals are even worse now than they were then and have posted just a .301 wOBA with a .118 ISO and 20.3-percent strikeout rate over the last seven days.
Marco Estrada, TOR – He’s pitched well as of late. Not fantastic, but well. The Yankees bats have woken up a bit lately, but they’re in the process of slowing down as they’ve plated just four runs in their last two games after beating up some of the Rays young pitching and their heated rivals, the Red Sox. But Estrada has done a good job containing them and has a 1.80 ERA and has limited them to a .140 batting average over 15 innings this year.
Anthony DeSclafani, CIN – His wOBA splits against lefties leaves little to be desired, but I still like him against his former team as the Fish are struggling right now. Over the past week, Miami has posted just a .299 wOBA with a .126 ISO and a 20.3-percent strikeout rate. That wOBA ranks them 27th in the league and against righties all year, they’ve been barely league-average anyway.
Blake Snell, TB – After watching Drew Smyly manhandle the Padres yesterday, it only enforces my belief that the Padres reign over left-handed pitching seems to be over. They were killing southpaws prior to the trade deadline but the loss of Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton has seemingly taken the win out of their sails. The fact that they’ve posted just a .245 wOBA with a 25.4-percent strikeout rate also makes me lean towards Snell for multiple lineups.
Ervin Santana, MIN – The Braves may not be big strikeout victims and they may have posted strong run totals in two of the three games against the Nats recently, but their current offensive numbers hover right around league average and they’re still a team that ranks 29th in the league against righties with a .295 wOBA and a .126 ISO. With lefty bats posting just a .280 wOBA against Santana, he should be a decent play for his price tag.
Jameson Taillon, PIT – Not only are the Giants posting just a .307 wOBA with a .129 ISO over the past week, but they’ve also been mashing the ball in the dirt 49-percent of the time during that span. That should play perfectly into Taillon’s 56.4-percent ground ball rate and 2.66 GB/FB. The cold, damp air off the bay should also help suppress any fly ball distance as well.
Braden Shipley, ARI – I recommended Shipley last week and he did not disappoint with seven shutout innings against a struggling Mets offense. Well, he’s now allowed just two runs over his last 19 innings (three starts) and he gets these same bumbling Mets again who have a .254 wOBA with a .089 ISO over the past seven days. Let’s also not forget the Mets’ 22.4-percent strikeout rate against righties this season.
Lucas Harrell, TEX – He got pummeled by the Rockies his last time out and the time before that he couldn’t make it out of the fourth inning against the Astros. But I’m willing to try him out in a GPP to get some Coors exposure against Gio Gonzalez today, especially since the A’s have averaged just 2.8 runs per game over their last 10 and have a .299 wOBA with a 45.1-percent ground ball rate and only a 27.4-percent hard contact rate (ranks 27th in the majors) in that span.
ON THE FENCE
Michael Pineda, NYY – I just can't make up my mind here. He’s been running hot and cold lately, has just a 5.04 ERA at home and, well, let’s face it, he can blow up on the mound on any given day. He’s got to outduel Estrada for the win, but these Blue Jays not only have a disappointing .313 wOBA with a 22-percent strikeout rate on the road, but they’ve also posted a .311 wOBA with an ugly 25.4-percent strikeout rate over the past week. This is sink or swim here, so if I do use him (as I like that price on Draft Kings), it will only be in a low-cost GPP.