Tanner Roark! With tonight being FAAB night in most seasonal leagues I well imagine he will be a popular pickup. You see, I love waiver night. In my highest entry seasonal league, we had our pickups last night. I grabbed Nick Tropeano for $1, Eduardo Nunez for $5, and David Freese for $1. One of the things I do each week is check the Colorado Rockies schedule and see who, if anyone, will be playing at Coors field the following week. Then I go to the waiver wire and I find a player with some HR potential who is batting near the top of the order and throw a $1 on him. Usually this lands me a player in a position to give me some nice counting stats for the week. This week’s cash cow hopefully is David Freese.
I had a good day on FanDuel and DraftKings yesterday on the early slate and absolutely got mashed on the night slate. I am just glad I played heavier on the early slate. So all in all, my day was mildly successful.
Today being Sunday I plan on relaxing and watching me some baseball. While the kids are running around like crazy I will be in my bedroom enjoying all the benefits of my Smart TV and the MLB package I have along with it. My wife will however come in and try to watch TV with me and in the process try to get me to watch some kind of crap…like Ghost Whisperer re-runs. Not happening.
Today’s slate has more possible value plays and cheap pitchers in good spots than I have seen in quite some time. Basically today’s slate is comparable to DFS NBA when you have minimum priced players in great matchups who should get lots of minutes. So keep in mind today with your bankroll the sharks will have each one of these value plays 10 different ways with 10 different stacks to cover their bases in all the multi-entry GPPs. Contest selection is extremely important, stick to the single entry GPPs and let the sharks just pass their money back and forth to each other.
Also…if you are the type of guy who puts two or three entries in a $9 league on DraftKings with only 38 people then you my friend are a D-bag. Just saying.
With my Sunday morning rant behind me, time being of the essence, and Quick Pitch playing in the background, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.
| Name | Team | W | L | K/9 | xFIP | GB% | FB% | Hard% | ERA | FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 3 | 0 | 8.72 | 2.9 | 62.00% | 24.00% | 15.70% | 1.25 | $11,600 | $11,500 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2.29 | 33.30% | 33.30% | 31.30% | 1.50 | $11,000 | $10,500 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 2 | 0 | 8.38 | 3.35 | 47.20% | 34.00% | 38.90% | 2.79 | $10,200 | $11,000 |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 1 | 1 | 9.98 | 4.63 | 63.90% | 25.00% | 36.60% | 4.11 | $9,200 | $7,800 |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 0 | 2 | 11.22 | 2.83 | 35.40% | 52.10% | 27.10% | 2.91 | $8,700 | $9,100 |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 1 | 2 | 6.46 | 4.73 | 37.50% | 37.50% | 26.00% | 4.70 | $8,400 | $6,300 |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 2 | 0 | 7.5 | 4.29 | 42.60% | 40.40% | 25.50% | 1.00 | $8,200 | $7,900 |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 1 | 0 | 9.56 | 4.94 | 34.90% | 44.20% | 37.20% | 2.81 | $8,200 | $8,300 |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 7.56 | 4.15 | 36.00% | 42.00% | 34.00% | 2.70 | $8,100 | $8,100 |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 1 | 1 | 9.53 | 3.57 | 39.20% | 39.20% | 25.00% | 5.29 | $7,700 | $9,200 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | 1 | 2 | 9.95 | 3.35 | 42.00% | 40.00% | 23.50% | 1.89 | $7,300 | $8,500 |
| Scott Feldman | Astros | 0 | 2 | 5.87 | 4.77 | 41.20% | 33.30% | 20.80% | 4.11 | $7,300 | $5,800 |
| Alfredo Simon | Reds | 0 | 1 | 12.15 | 5.29 | 48.00% | 32.00% | 40.00% | 12.15 | $6,700 | $5,200 |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | 0 | 2 | 6.75 | 3.79 | 40.70% | 20.30% | 35.60% | 5.71 | $6,700 | $7,800 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 1 | 0 | 8.35 | 4.29 | 43.50% | 26.10% | 19.20% | 1.96 | $6,700 | $8,200 |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | 0 | 2 | 9.19 | 3.29 | 38.00% | 32.00% | 28.90% | 8.04 | $6,600 | $7,500 |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 0 | 1 | 12.51 | 2.78 | 24.20% | 45.50% | 41.20% | 4.61 | $6,500 | $6,600 |
| Mat Latos | White Sox | 3 | 0 | 5.4 | 4.78 | 41.20% | 47.10% | 23.50% | 0.49 | $6,300 | $7,300 |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 1 | 1 | 6.55 | 4.99 | 33.30% | 39.40% | 27.30% | 5.73 | $6,300 | $5,400 |
| Shane Greene | Tigers | 1 | 1 | 7.15 | 5.29 | 40.60% | 40.60% | 31.30% | 7.15 | $6,100 | $5,000 |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 0 | 2 | 7.04 | 4.8 | 30.60% | 44.90% | 30.00% | 6.46 | $5,600 | $7,200 |
| Colin Rea | Padres | 1 | 1 | 8.82 | 4.11 | 46.90% | 22.40% | 20.00% | 5.51 | $5,400 | $6,900 |
| Jordan Lyles | Rockies | 1 | 1 | 5.4 | 4.44 | 49.00% | 24.50% | 27.50% | 6.00 | $5,100 | $5,000 |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 0 | 3 | 6.38 | 5.38 | 47.50% | 33.90% | 42.90% | 8.35 | $5,000 | $6,100 |
| Eric Surkamp | Athletics | 0 | 1 | 3.68 | 6.62 | 25.00% | 41.10% | 25.00% | 3.68 | $4,800 | $4,800 |
Top Cash Game Plays
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
There is little doubt in my mind today that Stephen Strasburg is the top option on the slate. Over his first three starts spanning 21 2/3 innings, he has only surrendered three earned runs while striking out 21 batters with a 1.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. The Minnesota Twins are striking out 24.6 percent of the time versus RHP with a .314 wOBA and low .241 avg. on the road. With the Nationals swinging a hot bat and Tyler Duffey on the mound today for the Twins all signs point to Strasburg nabbing the bonus for the win which is more important than ever now on FanDuel. He will be the chalk in cash games today and for good reason and the highest priced SP as well on both of the major sites.
Danger Zone
We have no history here but the Twins over the last seven days are batting .274 as a team with nine home runs. Their bats are coming to life a little but I highly doubt it will sustain today versus Strasburg.
Jacob DeGrom, New York Mets
Both myself and several of my seasonal teams are happy to see the return of Jacob DeGrom today. I have seen him pitch on several occasions at Citi Field and let me tell you now the kid is amazing to watch. Although he will be on a pitch count today of 85 he gets to face the miserable Atlanta Braves, which is almost as good as the Padres (we will get there). The Braves are striking out 22.3 percent of the time and carry a low .293 wOBA versus RHP on the season with a wRC+ of only 66 (Puig!). DeGrom also gets a positive park shift today pitching in Atlanta facing a Braves team that is only batting .237 at home. In DeGrom’s only start of the season versus the Phillies he struck out six batters while allowing one earned run over six innings and I will take 85 pitches of DeGrom today over 100 of most others. If you are trying to fit a bat or two and need to free up a few hundred bucks he is the next best thing today to Strasburg.
Danger Zone
The current Braves roster is six-for-39 with one home off of DeGrom lifetime in the small sample size it is.
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians
This should be the best low owned cash game play of the day. You see, the Tigers are scary. They have the uncanny ability to put up seven runs in an inning. Kind of like the Blue Jays do. So when you think of cash games you try to avoid risk, right? While here is the thing, the Detroit Tigers do not hit RHP all that well. As a matter of fact, they are currently third in MLB striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHP with a low .301 wOBA and even lower 5.8 percent walk rate (last in MLB). Did I mention Detroit is also a great pitchers park and the Tigers are only batting .235 so far this season there? So how about Carrasco? Carlos Carrasco is 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA over his first three starts while striking out 18 batters over 19 1/3 innings. This translates to a K/9 of over eight and he currently has a 47.2 percent GB rate. The Indians also can hit (do not let the .232 team batting average over the last seven days sway you) and are facing Shane Greene for Detroit, so the win looks favorable. Carrasco looks better than ever and if you are not afraid of the Tigers than he is your guy today. I can tell you now I will have some exposure to him.
Danger Zone
We have some BVP risk here.
Mike Aviles is three-for-nine with one HR.
Miguel Cabrera is nine-for-24 with one HR.
J.D. Martinez is six-for-18 with two HR and seven RBI. Ouch!
Justin Upton is one-for-three with one HR.
The current Tigers roster as a whole are batting .296 with five HR and 16 RBI. Told you the Tigers were scary.
Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).
Keep in mind the pitchers in this section are better GPP plays on FanDuel and what I consider the best cash game plays to pair with one of the pitchers above on DraftKings and other two-pitcher sites.
Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays
How good has Drew Smyly been? Pretty darn good. So good in fact that if you played him in his last two starts in DFS he certainly made you smile. So with smiles all around let’s get down to business. In his last two starts spanning 15 innings versus the Red Sox and Indians he has only allowed two earned runs while striking out 22 batters. Yes, I said 22 batters. Wow! Today he gets the Yankees at home which I find less than favorable but the Yankees are struggling. They are striking out 21.9 percent of the time versus LHP with a low .279 wOBA. They also are only batting .255 at home on the season and have a .285 wOBA over the last seven. His price is a little high but how can it not be with his recent output. He just misses the mark for my top three due to park factor but he does top the list for a number two today. If you do use him as your SP2 his price will force you to seek a little salary relief somewhere.
Danger Zone
Outside of Jacoby Ellsbury who is three-for-nine with two strikeouts the sailing looks clear. The current Yankees roster is six-for-43 with one home run off of Smyly. I will take that.
Jared Eickhoff, Philadelphia Phillies
For a team that is horrible it sure seems like I am playing their starting pitchers a lot lately. If this is a sign to come? If all this young talent pans out than the Phillies could be a powerhouse again with a few well-placed bats. They have the building blocks and perhaps have a front office much smarter than everyone thought.
Today the Phillies are in the hitter friendly park of Milwaukee facing a team that cannot hit there in the Brewers. The Brew Crew are striking out 24.9 percent of the time with a low .309 wOBA versus RHP facing a RHP with a 9.95 K/9. You see where I am going with this? Eickhoff has been stellar on a bad team allowing two earned runs over 14 innings with 18 strikeouts over his last two starts versus the Padres and Mets. The win here is really up in the air which is why he is not higher on my list. On DraftKings ($8500) I find him less of a bargain than on FanDuel ($7300) but his price-point on DraftKings could keep his ownership lower. He deserves serious GPP consideration today.
Danger Zone
The Brewers do have an elevated wOBA on at home (.334) but are only batting .248 over the last seven days. Some of the LHB in the lineup have potential to do some damage in a hitter friendly park like Milwaukee but if anything at some point Eickhoffs youth could undo him (depends on if you call 25 young).
Kirk Nieuwenhuis is two-for-three with a double and one strikeout. That is all.
Mike Leake, St. Louis Cardinals (Night slate only)
First off this play has more to do with how bad the Padres are versus RHP as opposed to how good Mike Leake is. It also is only viable because on the 4 pm slate there is really crap to choose from.
I was actually quite surprised when the Cardinals paid Mike Leake all that money. I thought he sucked in Cincinnati and I think he sucks in St. Louis. With all this being said I do think the Padres suck worse versus RHP than Leake sucks versus hitters. Also, if I keep using the word suck all the smarter people than I at Fantasy Alarm with real educations will think my writing sucks which will land me in the fantasy unemployment line, which also sucks.
Leake has been less than stellar so far but was impressive in the Spring which leads me to believe if he has a shot at redemption it would be tonight in the pitcher friendly park of San Diego. The Padres are striking out 24.9 percent of the time versus RHP with a low .250 wOBA and pathetic wRC+ of 54. Leake has 12 strikeouts over his last 13 innings and tends to keep the ball on the ground even if he did allow seven earned runs in this span. With little to choose from I am going to take a flyer here. Whatever that means.
Danger Zone
There is no one Padre that scares me today, they all do. Even the guy selling popcorn has potential for an RBI off of Leake. Righties are batting .333 off of Leake this season which is scary, unless you are Matt Kemp. Otherwise the current Padres team is 19-for-88 lifetime off of him with only one home run.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
Of course anytime you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.
Aaron Blair, Atlanta Braves
What do you say here? Aaron Blair is getting his big league debut today facing the Mets in the pitcher friendly park of Turner Field. Here is what I know, he is a highly touted pitching prospect on a team that is rebuilding. His minor league numbers are a little up and down with his K/9 fluctuating from around six to 10. In 2016 over 19 innings he had 22 strikeouts in AAA with a 1.42 ERA. I guess this was enough to prompt the Braves to say he is ready. The Mets are striking out 24.3 percent of the time versus RHP with a .324 wOBA. His price on FanDuel is only $4600 which to put it into perspective is $1200 less than Bryce Harper. How often do you see that? He will be the highest owned GPP play of the day and if he is not than people really have not figured this out yet. For a few bucks on FanDuel you have to take a shot here.
Danger Zone
This is a giant question mark but on FanDuel is as close to a must play in GPP as I have seen. On DraftKings not nearly as much. I will say this, my friend Brian Ambos picked him up for $5 in our seasonal league and when it comes to spotting SP he usually poops fantasy gold.
Mat Latos, Chicago White Sox
Andrea LaMont. If you have never heard of her that is the Legend Lenny Melnicks girlfriend, or wife. I am not totally sure. Anyhow, she called a bounce back year for Mat Latos. I know this sounds hard to believe but it is true. So props to her and Lenny as well with all they are doing in the industry.
Did you ever think that three starts into the season Mat Latos would be 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA? I can tell you that I did not for one minute. I just hope it lasts long enough for me to sell of some really nice Mat Latos Autographed Bowman Chrome rookies in my EBay store. Anyhow, today he faces the dangerous Texas Rangers in the hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field which is currently eighth in MLB in runs scored. The Rangers are striking out 20.4 percent of the time versus RHP with a low .305 wOBA. Latos has nine strikeouts over his last 12 1/3 innings so we do not have a Nolan Ryan here but we do have one hell of a GPP play if you can stomach it.
Danger Zone
I am just sitting back waiting for the implosion to occur.
Good luck today and be sure your catchers are playing as most do not if playing a day game after a night game. Saturdays and Sundays can be tough in that respect if you are new to this. Also I know the chart is missing a few pitchers. I am still learning to do this excel stuff myself and promise it will get better each week.
Go Dodgers!
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com
You can also hear me on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday mornings at 6:45 am on SiriusXm Fantasy Sports Radio Channel 210, XM 87 taking a first look at the DFS MLB slate at least for now. The Fantasy World has a way of building you up and knocking you down like a child with Legos and I as a whole I would be the little $3 pack on the shelf being the newer guy in the industry.
Also, a crazy person might just throw a few bucks on Wily Peralta today. When a horrible offense faces a horrible pitcher someone has to win. You have a 50/50 shot. Maybe for a $1?