DFS MLB Pitching Coach: July 30

Howard Bender, who I consider one of the best people in the industry, must be ready for a day off by now. We switched last week and the result was nine days with no article for yours truly. For the last week I have been buried in my office sorting down boxes of 2016 Bowman Baseball. I have a real honest to goodness Bowman addiction to go along with my deep love for Topps Heritage. But my one true love, is rookie cards. The older the better.

For 35 years now I have been collecting, while most kids were running around the playground, I was sitting in the shade with my card albums wheeling and dealing with the other kids. During kickball I would read books about baseball, while during lunch, I would spend most meals debating with the other kids why Steve Garvey was the best first baseman of all time next to Gil Hodges.

Football is here. Jeff, Ted, Ray, Howard, and the rest of the crew have released our 2016 Fantasy Football draft guide. If you haven’t purchased it yet, you may want to. They have created the first ever living draft guide. I am going to say that we have the BEST website right now for DFS and Seasonal Fantasy. I am not just saying this because I work here, I honestly believe it. We may not always be right, but we sure put the maximum effort into everything we do here. For example, while most are preparing for football, I am already getting ready for our next NBA season.

So with "Quick Pitch" in the background and a fresh cup of coffee, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach article.

The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report

OK, so I am not a real weather man. I simply go the National Weather Forecast and spend a few minutes looking over the map. I check for rain location, temperatures, and dew points. Focusing on the areas where there will be MLB. It is just scratching 4 a.m. as I write this so please understand that the weather changes. Quickly at times. I would only use my forecast for a quick glance to make myself aware of where baseballs can fly or die and weather could kill your night. Just understand, I am not doing anything here that no one else could do but glance at a weather page. I am doing this just as a courtesy to provide the best content possible while trying to give you the heads up for your day. Weather is more important when it comes to pitching than hitting. Fact.

Today’s Forecast

Not a hell of a lot going today weather wise. California as usual has the best MLB weather from North to South. Temps across the country today are going to be the usual July-August temps with the usual heat and humidity. It is going to be blazing in Texas today with temps ranging from the low too high 90’s, while from Chicago all the way to Massachusetts it is going to be in the mid-80’s. Although we have large areas of possible precipitation across the eastern edge of the Midwest to the waters of Mass none of it is particularly threatening at this time. The forecast calls for possible spot showers in several places across the country. The three games today I would want to keep an eye on would be in Chicago, Detroit, and New York all of which could have some rain or delay issues. It’s summer, it’s hot, it’s humid, and runs will be scored.

Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow are weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.

Day Slate

We have an unusually small day slate today with only three games on FanDuel and four on DraftKings. Not sure why FD decided to exclude the Yankees-Rays game at 6 p.m., they just do crap like that.

Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (Weather Concerns!)

Today Jake Arrieta gets a positive park shift at home pitching in Wrigley Field which is 28^th in runs scored in MLB facing a Mariners team that is highly unpredictable. At this early hour Vegas has yet to release a line on the game but I well imagine he will be an above average favorite (-175) with an expected run total of around 7.0 (It’s 4 a.m., let’s see how close I am). The Mariners are striking out 20.4 percent of the time with a hefty .341 wOBA and high wRC+ of 117 versus RHP on the season. On the road they are slightly less dangerous carrying a .332 wOBA and are batting .251 over the last seven days. Arrieta after looking a little dicey for a spell has put together a few decent starts again. In his last two games versus the Mets at home and White Sox on the road he has 14 strikeouts over his last 13 innings with a 3.46 ERA. Jake from State Farm has a 1.61 home ERA, 55 percent GB rate, 9.54 K/9, and will be the heaviest owned pitcher on the slate today. On such a small slate I would avoid cash games but if you are playing them, Jake is the chalk. Although Arrieta is the top option today he may not be my favorite.

Danger Zone

We have some BVP here and it looks pretty decent. The current Mariners are batting .203 (14-for-69) with three HR (Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz, and Adam Lind), seven RBI, and 20 strikeouts. Do not let the positive BVP fool you, the Mariners are very dangerous and have some big beefy LHB.

Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays

Let’s play a game called, how smart are the Yankees? What do I mean? Keep reading.

Today Drew Smyly is home in Tropicana Field which is 25^th in runs scored in MLB and is a slight -123 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.0. The New York Yankees are striking out 17.2 percent of the time with a .302 wOBA (26^th in MLB) and wRC+ of 85 versus LHP. On the road they are 29^th in both wOBA at .293 and wRC+ at 81. The Yankees also over the last seven days are striking out 22.9 percent of the time and batting a low .245 with a pathetic wRC+ of 58. Yes, 58. Smyly as of late has fared decently. Over his last two starts versus the Athletics and Rockies on the road (yes, Coors Field) he has allowed six earned runs over his last 11 innings with only four strikeouts. Although his K/9 as of late has been terrible (four strikeouts over his last three starts) his K/9 on the season is still 9.05 which most consider pretty good and he gets my call as the top option to pair with Arrieta on the early slate on DK and perhaps my top option on FD.

So, how smart are the Yankees? Drew Smyly has reverse splits with LHB carrying a .330 wOBA and RHB carrying a low .237. The Yanks love to load their lineup with RHB when they face LHP. So, if they are not smart enough to catch this and put out a lineup of all or mostly RHB with Brian McCann especially sitting, I would actually give Smyly the edge on Arrieta today. If you see when the lineup comes out that they caught this and put in the LHB, he goes to the bottom of the list today. Keep in mind unless playing the all-day slate on FD, he is not available.

Danger Zone

First off, I do not like flyball pitchers, which Smyly is. He did however pitch well versus the Yanks in April allowing one earned run over seven innings with six strikeouts and has nice BVP. The current Yankees roster is batting a lousy .167 (12-for-72) with one HR (Chase Headley), two RBI, and a whopping 20 strikeouts. Does that put a Smyly on your face?

Nathan Eovaldi, New York Yankees

Nathan Eovaldi benefits from the same positive park shift as Smyly facing a Rays team that has actually picked things up. At one point they were at the bottom of the list versus RHP but are on the rise. The Rays are striking out a whopping 23.8 percent of the time with a .316 wOBA versus RHP on the season. At home the wOBA hovers around the same at .317 but they are only batting .216 over the last seven days. Eovaldi has looked pretty good as of late. Over his last two starts versus the Giants and Orioles at home (both much tougher than TB) he has 3 earned runs over 13 innings striking out seven. Eovaldi also has a 4.80 ERA but 4.04 xFIP which approaches almost a full run difference. He keeps the ball on the ground 52.2 percent of the time and dominated the Rays in his last start versus them going six innings while striking out seven batters with one earned run, also at Tropicana Field. On DK today I can tell you now my favorite combo of the day will more-than-likely be Eovaldi-Smyly. I cannot think of two better late bullets than pitchers and believe this is the route to take (depending on the NYY lineup of course) on two-pitcher sites.

Danger Zone

Another match made in heaven. LHB carry a .377 wOBA versus Eovaldi which I find threatening, the thing is, the LHB of the Rays are not the scariest in my opinion. A little pop, and I mean a little. The current Rays roster is also batting a pathetic .234 (15-for-64) with no HR, three RBI, and an enticing 17 strikeouts.

Although I am not going to get heavy into it, on FD I will throw in one cheap lineup today with Reynaldo Lopez facing the Giants. He has swing and miss stuff and could surprise everyone today in his this start and you can get even more sneaky by pairing him with Peavy on DK and Aces. GPP only.

Night Slate

In a matter of seconds of looking at the slate four pitchers jumped right out at me. Then, I have sat here for almost 20-minutes just going over the slate again and again. I like Drew Pomeranz and he gets a good park shift but I hate attacking the Angels, they do not strike out a lot and are really hitting well right now. I just have a bad feeling about it and cannot bring myself to spend the money for him. So if I included him in my article I would be doing so because I felt like he belongs here because everyone else will have him. That is the problem with going from being a player, to an analyst. As a player, I will not be using Pomeranz in any form. As an analyst, I feel like he is the top option. It is very tough. That is why I made that rule for myself, I will not write a player into my article and not play him. If you like Pomeranz, I certainly cannot blame you. But I am not, and not recommending him either. Sorry. So, four it is. Also, I want to add that this is one of those nights where it would not surprise me if all the games had high run totals.

Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies

The first thing I ever tried to write pertaining to DFS was a blog entitled “Give them hell with Hellickson”. It was a brief article about why I thought you should play Jeremy Hellickson at the time in DFS. I remember watching him face the Padres and going like four or five innings and pitching well, then, boom, implosion. He gave up like six runs that inning. But some people in the industry saw my article and told me to keep it up. Then one day I saw a post by Jeff Mans asking if anyone was interested in writing DFS for Fantasy Alarm, and, here I am. Lucky you, depending on how you look at it.

Number one is actually a tie for me tonight, the big problem is, the two pitchers are facing each other. Jeremy Hellickson is on the road at Turner Field tonight which is 28^th in HR allowed in MLB. He is also a slight underdog pitching in a game with an expected run total of 7.5. The Braves are striking out 18.4 percent of the time and are 29^th in MLB in both wOBA at .301 and wRC+ at 82. The Braves numbers stay around the same at home and they have been picking up things as of late batting .279 over the last seven days. Hellickson as of late has been lights out, over his last six starts he has a 1.89 ERA and over his last two versus the Marlins twice he has allowed one earned run. His price is more than fair across the industry and he comes in tied for number one in what should be a real low scoring game.

Danger Zone

We have danger for sure with LHB carrying a wOBA of .343 versus Hellickson, this makes the Freddie Freeman type seem a little scarier today. The current Braves roster is batting .214 (21-for-98) with three HR (Nick Markakis (2) and A.J. Pierzynski), 10 RBI, and 15 strikeouts.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves

As crazy as it sounds Julio Teheran is the pitcher I would pair with Hellickson tonight in cash games on DK. He is a -127 favorite facing the Phillies at home, and as I mentioned this should be a low scoring game (see Hellickson). The Phillies are striking out 21.8 percent of the time with a low .301 wOBA (28^th in MLB) and wRC+ of 84 (also 28^th in MLB) versus RHP. Over the last seven days the Phillies are also running cold batting .239 with a wRC+ of 78. Teheran has been pitching lights out in his last two starts. Both of which are against the Rockies, one at home, one at Coors Field. The result? He allowed zero earned runs over 11 innings with eight strikeouts. If he can get it done at Coors Field versus the Rockies, he should have no problem handling the Phillies at home. It is the bullpen that is going to kill him.

Danger Zone

Lots of danger here. He has an ERA of 2.71 but an xFIP of 3.74 which is more than concerning. The BVP here is more than acceptable with the current Phillies batting .214 (30-for-140) with three HR (Ryan Howard (2) and Cody Asche), nine RBI, and 26 strikeouts.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (Weather Concerns!)

Justin Verlander has a K/9 of 9.37. I find that amazing at this stage of his career. You see, he did what good pitchers do. Rediscover themselves when they lose velocity. Kudos to you Verlander.

One of the things in DFS you do is look for streaky teams who have a ton of strikeout upside to pick on with a good strikeout pitcher. Today Justin Verlander is home facing the Houston Astros who strikeout 23.2 percent of the time with a marginal .327 wOBA versus RHP on the season. Make no mistake about it, the Astros can light your pitcher up. Or strikeout a ton and get blanked. Verlander is a -130 favorite tonight pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5. Over his last two starts versus the Twins at home and mighty Red Sox on the road he has 24 strikeouts over 21 innings with an incredible 1.29 ERA. I find him a bit pricey on DK but with limited options available tonight, I would still pay for him rather than save for Pomeranz. Apparently Verlander is like a fine wine, he gets better with age and has the second highest swinging strike rate on the slate to prove it.

Danger Zone

Well the BVP here is sweet. The current Astros are batting .188 (18-for-96) with three HR (Luis Valbuena, Tyler White, and George Springer), 11 RBI, and 30 strikeouts. Cha-Ching!

Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds

Even though he is not cheap on either site he is my top GPP play. With so many better pitchers for the same price or cheaper why use him? Simple, he is facing the Padres on the road and is a -127 favorite. The San Diego Padres who although as of late look good strikeout 24.6 percent of the time (2^nd in MLB) with a low .292 wOBA (last in MLB) and wRC+ of 84 (tied with Philly for 28^th) versus RHP. Over the last seven days the Padres are striking out a whopping 27.1 percent and only batting .220. DeSlafani over his last two starts facing the Braves at home and Giants on the road who both do not strikeout a lot has nine strikeouts over 13 innings. I expect him to perhaps give up a few runs today but strikeout a ton of batters leaving you with a smile and I will have a lineup or two that feature him. I suspect with the way the Padres have looked as of late, and his higher price-tag, he will nab some low ownership tonight.

Danger Zone

LHB carry a .394 wOBA versus DeSclafani this season and as of late the Padres have a few worth taking note of. Otherwise we have little BVP with the current Padres batting .100 (2-for-20) with four strikeouts.

I also kind of like Jameson Taillon today, but not enough to commit to at this time in my article. Keep an eye on that Brewers lineup. Ryan Braun was out yesterday and if he sits again today perhaps with another starter or two, I will move onto Taillon for sure.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.comGood luck today.

I also have an EBay store with some fine sports cards in it, this is the URL:  http://stores.ebay.com/jerrysgemmints