DFS MLB Pitching Coach: July 17

A good friend of mine passed away this morning, Mr. Coffee. It seems like just yesterday morning he was in my kitchen making me a nice pot of life’s blood to get me moving, and today, gone. He just sits there full of water and ground coffee and does nothing. The light is on, but nobody is home. The plate will not even get hot, he’s dead. It almost makes it hard to play DFS today with such tragedy striking me at three in the morning. The worst part of this whole thing is not even Dunkin Donuts is open yet. Remember when they were open 24 hours? No more, they open at 4 a.m. and close at 11 p.m. here.

Services for Mr. Coffee will be held at my trash can at noon with a trip to Walmart scheduled shortly thereafter. He leaves behind a bag of Starbucks Ground and several coffee filters. Any donations can be sent in the name of Mr. Coffee to the Jerry Needs Money Fund.

So with an Iced Coffee in my near future, Quick Pitch playing in the background, and a heavy heart for the passing of Mr. Coffee, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.

The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report

OK, so I am not a real weather man. I simply go the National Weather Forecast and spend a few minutes looking over the map. I check for rain location, temperatures, and dew points. Focusing on the areas where there will be MLB. It is just scratching 4 a.m. as I write this so please understand that the weather changes. Quickly at times. I would only use my forecast for a quick glance to make myself aware of where baseballs can fly or die and weather could kill your night. Just understand, I am not doing anything here that no one else could do but glance at a weather page. I am doing this just as a courtesy to provide the best content possible while trying to give you the heads up for your day. Weather is more important when it comes to pitching than hitting. Fact.

Today’s Forecast

Much like yesterday it is going to be scorching hot across most of the country. Let’s put it this way, unless you are living on the West Coast, or near Billings, Mont., which is supposed to be around 85, you are going to be looking at temperatures in the 90’s, or close to it. As usual it is going to be nice and cool in California with temperatures ranging from the high 60’s to high 70’s with it being warmer in the south. We have areas of green ranging from Florida up through the Northeast so keep an eye out. We also have a giant green pocket over the Great Lakes region with Minnesota pretty much completely enveloped. Outside of these areas (which is most of the MLB world) it is free and clear at this time from what I can see. Remember, just because there is green on the map it does not mean it will rain, or, get heavy enough to stop a game from playing out. I just prefer to avoid SP in games where a rain delay could occur because more often than not they do not return. Speaking of weather, the thunder is in the background here and the winds are picking up. I live about 25 miles from Albany, N.Y., over the border in Pittsfield, Mass. Where, it is now pouring at 5:30 a.m.

Day Slate

As usual, things are a mess on FanDuel. For some reason they have decided to exclude the White Sox-Angels game from the main slate. If you want to use players from this game on FD, you will have to play in the turbo or all-day slate which is for suckers. On DraftKings the slate is set up correctly and does include this game.

I have to admit, on days like today with so many stars going it makes my job a hell of a lot easier. I got studs facing scrubs in great parks on my watch. In cash games I do not think with so many options available you will see any one pitcher super high owned. I would be willing to bet it will be spread around so you have about a 15-percent ownership in players like Scherzer, deGrom, etc. So have some fun today and spread your cash games around a bit if that is your game. Just watch the weather.

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

Despite Max Scherzer pitching today my favorite play on the early slate is Jacob deGrom. Today he is pitching at Citizens Bank Park which is 30^th in runs scored in MLB and is a -163 favorite in a game with an expected run total of 8.0. The Phillies are striking out 21.2 percent of the time with a .311 wOBA (23^rd in MLB) and wRC+ of 90 (which is not all that scary) versus RHP. At home the Phillies are the worst offense in baseball coming in dead last in both wOBA at .283 and wRC+ at 71. They have however been swinging a decent bat as of late hitting .282 over the last 14 days but I do not see that continuing today. deGrom has increased velocity and is pitching lights out as of late. Over his last two starts versus the Marlins and Cubs at home he has 14 strikeouts over 12 innings with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. His K/9 is up to 8.8, he keeps the ball on the ground 50.2 percent of the time, and is the top play on the slate today without a doubt.

Danger Zone

The Phillies are batting .297 (22-for-74) with three HR (Ryan Howard (2) and Cameron Rupp), 10 RBI, and 19 strikeouts versus deGrom. This season, deGrom has a 1.50 ERA with six strikeouts over six innings versus the Phillies.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

I am going to give you three reasons why Max Scherzer is ranked below Jacob deGrom today in the Pitching Coach Article. Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco (who may not play), and Starling Marte. It is that simple. I just find them much more intimidating than Cody Asche, Peter Bourjos, and the struggling Odubel Herrera. Today Max Scherzer (who may or may not be the doppelganger for Brian Ambos) gets a positive park shift at home in Nationals Park which is 21^st in runs scored in MLB. He is also a -245 favorite (the largest on the slate) and this game has an expected run total of 8.0 (among the lowest on the slate). The Pirates are striking out 21.3 percent of the time with a borderline .323 wOBA versus RHP. On the road the wOBA dips to .312 (20^th in MLB) and over the last 14 days they are batting .240 striking out a whopping 24.1 percent of the time. Scherzer over his last two starts versus the Brewers at home and Mets on the road has a whopping 16 strikeouts over 13 innings allowing only one earned run. He has the best swing and miss stuff and the highest swinging strike rate on the slate at 16.8 percent. I completely expect Max to dominate today and will have exposure to him, but, I still prefer deGrom for the price difference on the sites.

Danger Zone

The Scherz has dominated the Pirates historically. They are batting .139 (16-for-115) with four HR (John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, and Matt Joyce), 11 RBI, and an incredible 45 strikeouts versus the Scherz (who may or not be the doppelganger for Brian Ambos as earlier mentioned). That is 45 strikeouts in 115 at-bats, you do the math.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves

Julio Teheran is that player who when I take him gets blown up, and when I do not, he shines. He is usually the antithesis of my sunshine. In other words, he likes to rain on my parade. Today though with all the better pitchers available he may be a lower owned gem. Teheran is home in Turner Field which used to be a pitcher’s park but not as much anymore and is a -112 favorite pitching in a game with the lowest expected run total on the slate at 7.5. The Colorado Rockies are striking out 20 percent of the time and have a monster .352 wOBA versus RHP. Outside of Coors field the wOBA takes a huge dip to .304 (24^th in MLB) with a wRC+ of 86. Over the last 14 days they are batting .265 with a wRC+ of 79. Teheran in his last two starts has gotten absolutely mashed allowing 10 earned runs only striking out eight batters, which will scare some people off. Prior to this though, he had only allowed three earned runs in three starts. I look for him to get back on track today facing a team that is much scarier on paper than in real life and is the perfect guy to pair with a stud above on a two-pitcher site like DK.

Danger Zone

Before we talk BVP one thing I find concerning is his ERA is 2.96 but his xFIP is 3.71. Anytime we approach that one run difference threshold I take notice. Otherwise, the Rockies are batting .169 (11-for-65) with two HR (Charlie Blackmon and Ben Paulsen), two RBI, and 19 strikeouts. Not bad eh?

Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles

For his first start of the season Bundy sure got a beauty. He gets a great park shift pitching at Tropicana Field which is 27^th in MLB in runs scored. He is also the -123 favorite and this game has a low expected run total of 8.0. The Tampa Bay Rays are striking out 25.3 percent of the time (2^nd in MLB) with a low .309 wOBA (24^th in MLB) versus RHP. Bundy out of the bullpen has not allowed an earned run in his last 14 1/3 innings spanning six games while striking out a whopping 19 batters. For his price today in GPPs you could pretty much afford any player you want and I will be using him in a GPP lineup for sure and building my own All-Star team.

Danger Zone

One thing you should know before taking Dylan Bundy today is I have no idea what kind of innings we are going to get here. He has not pitched more than three innings this season. So, is this going to be one of those things where he goes five innings and they pull him? Earlier, if he gets into trouble? Time will tell.

Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies

Would the real Zach Eflin please stand up? It wouldn’t matter if he did because I still would not recognize him. One thing I do see here though is cheap opportunity. If you read my articles you already know that I like to try and sniff out these oddball plays, Eflin is odder than a three-dollar bill. He benefits from the same great park shift pitching at home that deGrom does on the road. The Mets are striking out 22 percent of the time and have a low .308 wOBA (26^th in MLB) versus RHP on the season. On the road the Mets hit a little better carrying a .318 wOBA and are batting .263 over the last 14 days. Eflin in his last five starts has not allowed more than three earned runs pitching six innings or more in four of them. I am not going to go crazy here, his K/9 is terrible, his ERA is lower than his xFIP, and he is dangerous, and cheap. I will have him as well in at least one GPP lineup today on DK.

Danger Zone

We have no BVP here guys. We do have reverse splits here with RHB having a .337 wOBA versus Eflin. This makes the Neil Waler type that bat cleanup a bit dangerous. Another thing I noticed is even though the Mets are only batting .263 over the last 14 days they do have a wRC+ of 126 in this span to go with it.

Night Slate

Basically it feels like you could throw a dart at this slate and hit a possible cash game pitcher. So I am going to give you my top two cash game plays and top two GPPs for the night slate.

Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants

Is he expensive? Yes. Would you rather take David Price in Yankee Stadium? Or, how about Rich Hill facing the Blue Jays? No thanks. Not in cash games. In cash games for the little extra I am throwing up a “K” for Cueto. Today he is in Petco Park which historically even if not so much now is a pitcher’s park. He is the largest favorite on the night slate at -211 pitching in the game with the lowest expected run total at 7.5, facing one of the worst teams in baseball. The Padres are striking out 23.4 percent of the time and are 29^th in both wOBA (.291) and wRC+ at 82 versus RHP. They are 28^th at home in MLB in wOBA at .299 and are batting .262 striking out 25.6 percent of the time over the last 14 days. Cueto has been brilliant this season. In his last two starts versus the Rockies at home and Diamondbacks on the road he has 17 strikeouts over 16 innings with a 2.81 ERA. All signs point to Cueto being the man today and I am all in.

Danger Zone

We have that ERA (2.47) versus xFIP (3.37) thing here which for some reason does not bother me as much with Cueto. The Padres are batting .265 (43-for-162) with six HR (Jon Jay (3), Matt Kemp (2), and Alexei Ramirez), 12 RBI, and 40 strikeouts off the Predator (The hair). Need I say more?

Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers

I am loving me some Maeda today. The Diamondbacks are striking out 23.2 percent of the time with a .325 wOBA versus RHP. At home it elevates slightly to .330 and over the last 14 days they are striking out 24 percent of the time while batting .245 with a wRC+ of 74. They are also very RHB heavy and in Maeda’s only start at Chase Field this season he allowed two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts. In his other start at home versus the D-Backs he completely shut them down pitching a six inning shutout while striking out four. I believe on a small slate with safer options Maeda could go under the radar today giving you a little lower ownership. But think about it, outside of Jake Lamb and Paul Goldschmidt, how dangerous are any of the other Diamondbacks hitters?

Danger Zone

Over the two starts he has versus them, the Diamondbacks are batting .289 (11-for-38) with zero HR, two RBI, and eight strikeouts.

Both of these plays below are riskier and better for GPP play.

Mike Montgomery, Seattle Mariners

A decent 7.46 K/9, 60.9 percent GB rate, and $5,200 price tag on DK. Who am I referring to? Mike Montgomery is who. He gets a great park shift at home in Safeco Field which is 22^nd in MLB in runs scored and is a miniscule underdog pitching in a game with a low expected run total of 8. The Astros although dangerous get shut down often and offer a ton of upside. They are striking out 22.8 percent of the time with a .315 wOBA versus LHP on the season. They are also cold over the last 14 days batting a low .226 with a sad wRC+ of 69. Montgomery over his first two starts versus the Astros and Royals on the road has only allowed one earned run. The sad part is he only struck out five batters in 10 1/3 innings. I fully expect his K rate to increase today as he shuts down the Astros for peanuts.

Danger Zone

Well his ERA is only 2.07 but his xFIP is much higher at 3.67 which could spell possible regression. Otherwise he has dominated the Astros. They are batting .204 (10-for-49) with no HR, two RBI, and 10 strikeouts versus Montgomery.

Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks

This has more to do with how bad my Dodgers are versus LHP than it does the talent of Robbie Ray. The Los Angeles Dodgers are striking out 20.2 percent of the time with a low .296 wOBA (29^th in MLB) and have a low wRC+ of 84 versus lefties this season. The RHB available are pretty bad. We have Kike Hernandez, Scott Van Slyke, crap, and more crap. Outside of Yasmani Grandal (who probably will not play) and Justin Turner there is little to worry about. And if Grandal sits? You know what that means? More crap in the form of A.J. Ellis. Ray is cheap, has an incredible 10.64 K/9, a 4.81 ERA versus a 3.64 xFIP, and is going to walk all over my boys in blue and gray today.

Danger Zone

The Dodgers are batting .211 (15-for-71) with one HR (Howie Kendrick), five RBI, and 16 strikeouts. RHB also have a .370 wOBA against him. Now, the Dodgers just need some good ones.

Good luck today and watch your catchers. See you this week on Tuesday and Wednesday as I fill in for the incredible Howard Bender.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com

I also have an EBay store with some fine sports cards in it, this is the URL:  http://stores.ebay.com/jerrysgemmints/