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I love to talk about baseball. Last night Joe Pisapia and I did just that on SiriusXM for around a half hour. My biggest problem when going on the radio is I cannot hear what they are saying to me half of the time. Also, my brain works so fast it always seems to find a way to get ahead of what my mouth is saying. Regardless, it was a great time. Thanks Joe.
Today’s slate is full of great pitchers who I do not want to use. Players like Corey Kluber in Toronto and Cole Hamels facing the Twins for some reason seems particularly distasteful for my DFS activities. I actually find once again a slate that is for the most part devoid of any real bargains. So high to mid-priced will have to be the theme in lineup construction for SP. Luckily once again we have no Coors Field game and no Clayton Kershaw type pricing so all of this should be manageable.
So with several studs pitching I plan on completely fading, a sleeping wife, no kids in the house, and a fresh cup of coffee I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.
The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report
The weather today is very similar to yesterday. It is going to be hot, hot, hot, from Texas to Florida. How hot? Mid to high 90’s hot. Now in Florida, we have several weather issues so more than likely the TB game will be played indoors. St. Louis and that entire section of the Midwest is full of green. This means thunderstorms, so keep a close eye on the Cardinals game. The Northeast is going to be in the mid 80’s today and once again in California from San Diego up to the bay it is going to be a nice cool day with highs ranging from the mid 60’s to low 70’s depending on what part of the state you are in. Either way it spells love for pitchers. Of course, it is early and the weather is the weather and the most important thing to remember is, I am not a real weather man.
Day Slate
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
Jon Lester is pitching in Citi Field today which is 18th in runs scored in MLB. He is also a -114 favorite and this game has the lowest expected run total on the slate at 6.5. The New York Mets are striking out 24.2 percent of the time with a .333 wOBA and high wRC+ of 112 versus LHP. To be honest when I first saw these numbers I was about to cut and run. But, the Mets at home are significantly less of a threat. How much less? At home the Mets have a .298 wOBA and wRC+ of 92. You are talking about a split of over 30 points in wOBA and 20 in wRC+. That is a giant shift and to me spells attack with the right pitcher. Jon Lester is certainly the right pitcher. Over his last two starts versus the Marlins and Reds on the road he has a 1.84 ERA with 11 strikeouts over 14 2/3 innings. I know the K’s seem low but keep in mind he has 44 strikeouts over his last 44 2/3 innings. I expect facing a team like the Mets who strikeout a lot that Lester will feast today and he is my top play on the day slate. Plus, to be honest he has the best mean mug on the mound in MLB, he always looks so pissed…I like that.
Danger Zone
The New York Mets are batting .242 (38-for-157) with four HR (Curtis Granderson (2), Wilmer Flores, and Lucas Duda), 14 RBI, and 46 STRIKEOUTS versus Lester. Yup, there it is.
Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
OK, the worst part about this day slate is my favorite starting pitchers are facing each other. As much as I have tried this morning to fit another top stud, it all keeps coming back to Thor. The truth is, him and Jon Lester are the top options and I really feel that you need to use one or the other in cash games. I prefer Lester as I can see this game being 2-1 Cubs with Lester actually getting the win bonus. Regardless, I still believe Thor is going to throw up at least a 40 spot on FanDuel and 25 or so on DraftKings. The Chicago Cubs are striking out 22.9 percent of the time with a .320 wOBA versus RHP. On the road they have a comparable offense and the .328 wOBA and wRC+ of 102 shows it. As of late the Cubbies are slumping slightly batting .243 over the last seven days and playing at Citi Field today certainly will not aid this in improving. Syndergaard has looked anything but impressive as of late allowing eight earned runs in his last two starts versus the Royals at home and Nationals on the road. The positive thing is he did strikeout nine batters over the total nine innings pitched in these two starts so with Noah’s K upside and positive ball park shift today I am all in on him if not Lester.
Danger Zone
We have little BVP here with Kris Bryant going 2-for-3 being the top. My biggest concern is Noah’s recent numbers being down. We are at the midway point in the season and it seems arms are starting to break down a bit and succumb to the mid-season fatigue. Regardless, a Noah coming off of two bad starts is still far better than a Corey Kluber facing the Blue Jays.
Collin McHugh, Houston Astros
McHugh, who started horrible but as of late has looked good, is home facing the Chicago White Sox. This game has an expected run total of 8.0 which is on the lower side of the slate, and he is a -146 favorite. The White Sox are striking out 21.6 percent of the time with a subpar .311 wOBA versus RHP. On the road they do hit much better sporting a .307 wOBA and wRC+ of 89. McHugh gets a positive park shift at home in Minute Maid Park which is 26th in MLB in runs scored (I still feel wrong saying that). Over his last three starts versus the Cardinals once and Angels twice he has only allowed five ER over 19 2/3 innings while striking out 15 batters and walking six. He has a 4.58 ERA and 3.84 xFIP which suggests he has been slightly unlucky. For his low price across the industry he is more than a viable player to pair with either Thor or mean mug Lester and a fine GPP play.
Danger Zone
The current White Sox roster looks as though it forgot to show up versus McHugh in the small sample size we have. They are 11-for-58 with zero HR, three RBI, and 21 strikeouts. You see that right? 21 strikeouts in 58 at-bats. WOW, cha-ching!
Vincent Valesquez, Philadelphia Phillies
So did anyone take Valesquez facing the Diamondbacks in Arizona in his first start back from the DL? I did, and was pretty happy with the return. Well, today he is home facing the Kansas City Royals who are notoriously unpredictable. The Royals are striking out 19.5 percent of the time with a .320 wOBA versus RHP. As you can see they do not strikeout a lot but they do struggle on the road. The Royals on the road only have a .307 wOBA and low wRC+ of 89. Valesquez in his first start back in Arizona pitched a five inning shutout while striking out seven and today gets a great park shift at home in Philadelphia which is 29th in runs scored in MLB. He is a -115 favorite by the powers that be in Las Vegas, pitching in a game with a low 7.5 expected run total, and gets my call as the under the radar play of the day who will pleasantly surprise his owners.
Danger Zone
First off I am not sure how deep they will let him go today which is always a concern if his pitch count gets high early, which is an attribute of the Royals. The little BVP we have is excellent minus the red hot Kendrys Morales who is 2-for-4 with a HR off of Vince.
If you really want to be a DFS tough guy than take $3 and throw in a GPP using both Matt Shoemaker facing the Red Sox and Jose Quintana facing the Astros. It will be either suicide or genius. Horrible matchups, just a hunch, nothing more.
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA v L | wOBA v R | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Jon Lester | CHI | L | NYM | 106.1 | 8.72 | 2.03 | 0.93 | .206 | 11.0% | 2.03 | 3.25 | 0.97 | .250 | 50.5% | 30.8% | 1.64 | 0.233 | 0.266 | $10,600 | $12,800 | $6,750 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | R | TOR | 110.2 | 8.95 | 1.87 | 0.65 | .210 | 13.1% | 3.5 | 3.11 | 0.98 | .262 | 52.5% | 30.5% | 1.72 | 0.265 | 0.243 | $10,500 | $13,600 | $7,250 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | R | CHI | 94 | 11.01 | 1.44 | 0.48 | .241 | 16.6% | 2.49 | 2.29 | 1.06 | .331 | 57.4% | 21.1% | 2.72 | 0.311 | 0.226 | $10,200 | $11,900 | $7,300 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | L | MIN | 103.2 | 8.86 | 3.3 | 1.3 | .226 | 13.4% | 2.61 | 3.77 | 1.21 | .268 | 53.1% | 27.4% | 1.93 | 0.269 | 0.312 | $10,100 | $12,400 | $6,700 |
| Chris Archer | TB | R | DET | 98.1 | 10.71 | 3.94 | 1.56 | .258 | 12.5% | 4.76 | 3.6 | 1.45 | .319 | 46.2% | 30.4% | 1.52 | 0.344 | 0.315 | $9,000 | $8,700 | $6,300 |
| Jose Quintana | CWS | L | HOU | 104.2 | 8.25 | 2.06 | 0.69 | .246 | 9.5% | 3.18 | 3.76 | 1.16 | .304 | 41.1% | 37.0% | 1.11 | 0.229 | 0.309 | $8,900 | $9,200 | $6,200 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | R | KC | 66.2 | 10.8 | 2.84 | 1.08 | .244 | 13.3% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 1.25 | .319 | 37.9% | 40.8% | 0.93 | 0.298 | 0.308 | $8,500 | $8,900 | $6,450 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | L | CLE | 99.2 | 6.23 | 2.8 | 1.17 | .247 | 9.5% | 3.7 | 4.45 | 1.23 | .269 | 45.7% | 33.7% | 1.36 | 0.345 | 0.314 | $8,100 | $7,700 | $5,900 |
| Yordano Ventura | KC | R | PHI | 84.2 | 6.7 | 4.15 | 1.17 | .255 | 8.7% | 5 | 4.83 | 1.45 | .281 | 48.7% | 34.1% | 1.43 | 0.331 | 0.309 | $8,100 | $6,900 | $6,150 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | R | BOS | 87.1 | 9.28 | 1.75 | 1.13 | .269 | 15.1% | 4.12 | 3.59 | 1.26 | .323 | 39.6% | 36.5% | 1.09 | 0.309 | 0.327 | $8,000 | $7,000 | $6,350 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | R | MIL | 93.2 | 7.59 | 2.69 | 0.67 | .265 | 8.9% | 4.42 | 4.21 | 1.38 | .311 | 46.5% | 26.9% | 1.73 | 0.324 | 0.310 | $7,400 | $8,500 | $6,000 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | R | CWS | 90.1 | 8.17 | 2.29 | 1.2 | .292 | 11.6% | 4.58 | 3.84 | 1.44 | .341 | 46.6% | 35.1% | 1.33 | 0.374 | 0.328 | $7,200 | $8,000 | $5,950 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | R | STL | 77.2 | 6.96 | 2.67 | 1.85 | .268 | 9.1% | 5.45 | 4.54 | 1.34 | .278 | 40.5% | 36.4% | 1.11 | 0.293 | 0.423 | $6,200 | $5,500 | $5,600 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | R | TEX | 45.2 | 5.72 | 3.15 | 0.99 | .279 | 10.3% | 5.12 | 4.77 | 1.49 | .296 | 53.9% | 25.7% | 2.1 | 0.366 | 0.307 | $6,000 | $5,800 | $5,800 |
| John Lamb | CIN | L | WSH | 58.2 | 6.29 | 3.84 | 1.38 | .275 | 8.4% | 4.6 | 4.84 | 1.47 | .287 | 46.3% | 30.9% | 1.5 | 0.325 | 0.358 | $5,800 | $5,700 | $5,750 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | R | TB | 86 | 4.29 | 3.35 | 1.36 | .337 | 7.8% | 5.02 | 5.14 | 1.74 | .342 | 52.9% | 22.7% | 2.33 | 0.395 | 0.378 | $5,600 | $4,000 | $5,600 |
Night Slate
First off, the night slate is ugly. I mean it makes the kid in the movie Mask look like Brad Pitt ugly. Too soon? Anyhow, three is all I could come up with here. I tried and tried for a fourth but nothing jumped out at me. So, check back here later today because sometimes when the lineups come out things jump out at me I did not foresee and being Sunday we will have lots of bench players today randomly inserted into lineups.
Adam Conley, Miami Marlins
Anytime Adam Conley is the top pitching option on the slate than I honestly believe this may be a great one to just fade. Enjoy the early games and spend the evening eating hamburgers and hot dogs with friends by a fire. But, if you are a DFS die-hard like myself than you will be foolish enough to throw out some money on this highly unpredictable and volatile night slate.
I am starting to get increasingly nervous picking on both the Braves and the Padres as of late. But, numbers are numbers so here we go. The Atlanta Braves are a team that should all have 29th on their jerseys. Why? Simple, they are 29th in wOBA (.291) and 29th in wRC+ (79) versus LHP. They also are 29th at home in wOBA (.290) and wRC+ at 80. The Braves are also striking out 21 percent of the time versus LHP as well. Conley in his last outing versus the Braves at home in Miami pitched eight scoreless innings striking out four and I expect similar numbers today. He is a -142 favorite and this game has an expected run total of 8.5. It also has my call as the top play on the miserable night slate in what used to be a pitcher’s park in Atlanta.
Danger Zone
We have a decent sample size of BVP here. The current Braves roster is batting .258 (17-for-66) with one HR (Adonis Garcia), seven RBI, and 13 strikeouts of off Conley. The Braves also have been upsetting the balance lately of things which like I said makes me a bit nervous.
Daniel Mengden, Oakland Athletics
Normally I do not attack the Pittsburgh Pirates but if you are going to do so this slate is the one to do it. The Pirates are striking out 20.7 percent of the time with a .325 wOBA versus RHP. They also are dangerous on the road and have the .321 wOBA to prove it. Here is the thing, over the last seven days the Pirates are only batting .240 with a wRC+ of 77. Anytime I see wRC+ drop below 85 I attack. This to me clearly indicates things just are not falling their way right now which makes them vulnerable to mediocre starting pitching with a decent strikeout upside. Now enter Daniel Mengden. He is a -153 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5 which is right in line with the rest of the slate. He gets a great park shift at home in the Coliseum which is 28th in MLB in runs scored and it’s going to be a chilly night in the bay dragging the ball down like my four kids do my income. Mengden over his last two starts has 14 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings with a 3.29 ERA versus the Brewers at home and Giants on the road. His price is more than fair across the industry and he is my favorite player to pair with Conley on a two-pitcher site and cash game viable tonight on a one pitcher site.
Danger Zone
We have no BVP here so my biggest area of concern besides the Pirates themselves and their ability to put runs up in bunches would be the fact LHB have a .327 wOBA versus Mengden. Polanco?
Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
This is my flyer GPP play of the night and one I kind of feel like I am forcing in. The top two players to me are the clear options for the later slate but if you were to go outside of them this is where I would look. I love the Dodgers but I find it hard to believe they are going to win again tonight. They are just to beat up and have too little depth right now. The Dodgers are striking out 19.6 percent of the time with a subpar .314 wOBA versus RHP on the season. At home in Dodger Stadium which is 30th in runs scored in MLB the Dodgers only have a .303 wOBA and fair-to-midland wRC+ at 94. Jon Gray is facing the noxiously bad Brandon McCarthy and is a +122 underdog pitching in a game with a low expected run total of 8.0. He has a 9.78 K/9 and high end price-tag that I believe will gravitate players away from him therefore lowering the ownership. In his last two starts he got beat up at home in Toronto and on the road in Yankee stadium, neither parks benefiting a young pitcher. In a good park, on a cool night, facing a poor Dodgers team, LA could have Gray skies tonight.
Danger Zone
We have some bad BVP here but it is all from Coors field so to be honest I am completely throwing it out the window. The difference between Coors and Dodger Stadium is so gigantic you cannot trust the numbers and he did have a 3.86 ERA last season at Chavez Ravine. But, they are bad. On a positive note both LHB and RHB are barely scratching .300 wOBA’s versus Gray on the season.
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA v L | wOBA v R | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Adam Conley | MIA | L | ATL | 87.2 | 8.73 | 3.39 | 0.82 | .248 | 10.9% | 3.9 | 4.36 | 1.36 | .299 | 42.6% | 35.5% | 1.2 | 0.321 | 0.337 | $9,000 | $8,300 | $6,000 |
| Jon Gray | COL | R | LA | 76.1 | 9.78 | 2.83 | 1.3 | .232 | 12.8% | 4.83 | 3.47 | 1.18 | .281 | 49.8% | 28.3% | 1.76 | 0.308 | 0.307 | $8,800 | $0 | $6,050 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | R | BAL | 101.2 | 6.73 | 1.86 | 1.5 | .282 | 9.2% | 4.34 | 4.32 | 1.33 | .301 | 41.1% | 36.7% | 1.12 | 0.374 | 0.314 | $8,700 | $6,600 | $6,250 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | L | OAK | 82.2 | 9.04 | 5.77 | 1.52 | .264 | 11.4% | 5.34 | 4.61 | 1.66 | .296 | 52.9% | 28.6% | 1.85 | 0.310 | 0.370 | $8,200 | $6,000 | $6,200 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | L | SF | 86.1 | 10.42 | 3.54 | 1.25 | .281 | 11.1% | 4.69 | 3.62 | 1.54 | .358 | 48.8% | 25.0% | 1.95 | 0.284 | 0.369 | $7,500 | $7,400 | $5,800 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | R | PIT | 25.2 | 9.12 | 3.16 | 1.05 | .221 | 10.8% | 2.81 | 3.83 | 1.17 | .265 | 45.1% | 31.0% | 1.45 | 0.327 | 0.238 | $7,400 | $8,400 | $5,700 |
| Albert Suarez | SF | R | ARI | 42.1 | 5.95 | 2.34 | 0.85 | .229 | 9.4% | 3.83 | 4.37 | 1.11 | .242 | 51.9% | 26.4% | 1.97 | 0.348 | 0.268 | $7,300 | $6,300 | $5,750 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | R | MIA | 95.2 | 6.59 | 2.35 | 1.22 | .243 | 9.7% | 4.14 | 4.54 | 1.22 | .263 | 40.3% | 39.0% | 1.04 | 0.332 | 0.272 | $6,900 | $7,100 | $6,400 |
| Luis Perdomo | SD | R | NYY | 53 | 8.15 | 3.74 | 1.7 | .353 | 11.4% | 8.49 | 4.49 | 2.06 | .397 | 57.5% | 18.8% | 3.06 | 0.413 | 0.417 | $6,700 | $4,000 | $5,400 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | R | SEA | 76 | 8.17 | 5.21 | 1.07 | .313 | 8.4% | 6.63 | 4.75 | 1.91 | .374 | 52.3% | 25.9% | 2.02 | 0.424 | 0.354 | $6,500 | $5,300 | $5,650 |
| Chad Green | NYY | R | SD | 5 | 10.8 | 1.8 | 3.6 | .320 | 10.2% | 7.2 | 3.19 | 1.8 | .353 | 52.6% | 26.3% | 2 | 0.510 | 0.385 | $6,000 | $5,900 | $5,600 |
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Remember today is Sunday, watch your catchers, check the game log. If they played last night, they probably will not play tonight. Watch lineups, often times as I mentioned on Sunday unforeseen opportunities open up when stars sit.
Happy Fourth of July and I want to give a special thanks to my grandfather Charles Carder (pictured, right) who fought in World War II. He served from North Africa, through Sicily, Italy, and then France as a bombardier. He saw more action (and horrible things) than a Tom Hanks movie and has the medals to prove it. Thanks for all you have done for us and the world has been a better place for the 93 years you have been it.
As always, go Dodgers! (A lot of this depending on my exposure to Jon Gray of course, the Dodgers as much as I love them do not feed the kids.)
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com
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