DFS MLB Pitching Coach: July 2

It must be Saturday because once again I find myself awake at 2:21 a.m. You see, my wife went out last night and I have to admit I do not sleep well when she is not in bed with me. I toss, I turn, I toss some more, and then finally, she comes home at 1:30 a.m. So what do I do? Do I go to bed at 2 a.m. and get up at 4 a.m. to start writing? Even I cannot do that. So basically, my only choice is to just get up and get started and hope sleep finds a way to present itself tomorrow, after work of course.

After finishing this first paragraph I decided to step back and grab a cup of coffee, and now, I am feeling better, less grumpy, and my mind is starting to fire up with stats and matchups.

Did anyone notice on FanDuel that they now have little blue stars next to their user name? At first, I had no clue what this was. Then, I realized, I am a DFS veteran. Yay! I have paid in both fingernails, money, and more than one angry night wanting to smash my phone for that little blue star. I wear it proudly. How is the blue star better than the old way FanDuel did things? I remember back in the day you could just click on a player’s name and it would tell you how many paid contests he had cashed in. What they need to do is figure out a FanDuel average or DraftKings average. I do not care how much money you have won, I do not care how many lineups you put in. I do care about the percentage of the time you cash in versus the amount of entries you put in. How hard would it be to click on a user ID and see something like this:

User ID: FatGuysLoveChocodiles

Multi Entry GPP: .297

Single Entry GPP: .234

50/50: .567

Double Up: .456

Catch my drift? This would give you an exact idea of the caliber of player you are facing. And, of course, you can then break down the averages by sport. My theory (and this is solely my opinion) is most of these top players are nothing more than spoiled rich kids who DO care just as much about their names being thrown around as the “top” players as they do winning money. If the world was to find out that Maxdulary (I only chose this name because technically it does not exist anymore) only had a .154 FanDuel average, who would care about what he does? I am also curious to see what my average is, I believe it would be slightly impressive. Or not, but I would like to see.

These players who enter hundreds of lineups whether we like it or not have a place in this industry. They keep the money pipeline flowing for the sites and honestly, I really don’t care. For the most part I only play in single entry GPPs except for the $3 scratch ticket I throw out each day. But, when I win, I will be able to say I did it with one lineup.

I also notice that FanDuel is offering beginner contests. I cannot enter but if you can, you should.

If you were given 100 basketballs and asked to shoot from the 3-point line and made 12 shots, while the person next to you was given 10 basketballs and made three shots, who would be the better shooter? Same goes for DFS. Players should be judged on winning percentage, not the amount of dollars won.

I really like the pitching options on today’s slate for both the night and day slate and that is where I will stay avoiding the all-day slate on FanDuel. I find that although we do not have much in the way of super cheap flyers, we do have plenty of mid-priced players on both sites that are viable starts. Also, with no Coors Field game most of the salaries are reasonable. Honestly, I strongly prefer slates without a Coors Field game. I find them much more enjoyable.

So with not even Dunkin Donuts awake yet I bring you today's Pitching Coach Article.

The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report

Keep in mind I am writing this at 3 a.m. The south, especially the bottom half of the country from Texas to Florida, is going to be scorching hot while the northeast is going to be in the low- to mid-80’s. We have bands of possible thunderstorms moving through the Midwest. The West Coast, especially California, is going to be in the high 60’s to low 70’s. In relation to MLB game locations, for the most part, I don't see a ton to worry about outside of maybe St. Louis at this time. Remember, anytime you see thunderstorm warnings you should keep a mild eye on it.

Day Slate

Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins

Although it seems as of late the Atlanta Braves may not be the team to pick on, they are strongly outmatched versus Jose Fernandez. The Braves are striking out 19.6 percent of the time with a .286 wOBA (30^th in MLB) and wRC+ of 75 (also 30^th in MLB) versus RHP. The home team advantage means little as well and their .288 wOBA (29^th in MLB) and wRC+ of 79 (also 29^th in MLB) show it. At the time or writing this article the Vegas line is unavailable but I well imagine he will be a heavy favorite in a game with a low expected run total. I am going to take a stab and say the expected run total will be around seven in this one. Fernandez continues to get better each start. In his last two versus the Cubs and Braves at home he has 20 strikeouts over 14 innings with a 0.64 ERA and the second-highest swinging strike rate on the slate at 16 percent. Who's No. 1? That may surprise you.

Danger Zone

Honestly even if the BVP had been bad it would have meant nothing to me here. The current Braves roster is batting .217 (13-for-60) with two HR (Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman), six RBI, and 15 strikeouts versus Jose.

Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals

Sometimes the cosmos all line up just right and that is the moment you need to make a move. Nobody on the slate has better swing and miss stuff than Danny Duffy. Really. He has the highest swinging strike percentage on the slate today at 17 percent. The best part is he is facing a team in the Phillies who are absolutely abysmal versus LHP. The Phillies are striking out a whopping 23.4 percent of the time and are dead last in MLB in both wOBA (.273) and wRC+ (64) versus LHP this season. It gets better, the Phillies are also dead last in wOBA (.273) and wRC+ (63) at home. Here is the downside, Over the last seven days the Phils have been red hot, batting a whopping .330. Duffy since returning has really proven he has what it takes. He is a -138 favorite today pitching in a game with an expected run total of eight. Duffy benefits from a great park shift in Citizens Bank Park which is 29^th in MLB in runs scored. Over his last two starts versus the powerful Cardinals at home and the Mets on the road he has 20 strikeouts over 17 2/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA. I know the ERA is a bit concerning but both the Mets and Cardinals are better teams than the Phillies and for the price I am all about the Duff today.

Danger Zone

We have little BVP here but the three big concerns for me would be that RHB have a .332 wOBA versus Duffy, he is a fly ball pitcher, and as mentioned, the Phillies are RED hot.

Doug Fister, Houston Astros

First off, I prefer this play much more on FanDuel where his price is only $7,600 than I do on DraftKings where it is an outrageous $9,200. The Houston Astros, who a lot of us had written off a month ago, have resurfaced. They keep winning games and some great starting pitching is certainly helping. Doug Fister has been a pleasant surprise for them. Over his last six starts he has a 2.31 ERA with 31 strikeouts over 39 innings. I realize this does not look all that impressive for strikeouts but think about the price tag here versus possible production today. Fister is facing the Chicago White Sox who are striking out 21.4 percent of the time with a low .310 wOBA versus RHP. They are 25^th in wOBA on the road coming in at .303 and have a wRC+ of 87. Last week yielded a lot of runs in MLB and a lot of teams have hotter than normal bats with the White Sox being no exception hitting .274 over the last seven. He actually gets a positive park shift at home in Minute Maid Park which is currently 27^th in runs scored in MLB. He is a -108 favorite facing Chris Sale in a game with an expected run total of eight and gets my call as cash game and GPP viable.

Danger Zone

Well, he is Doug Fister so a number things concern me besides BVP. First his ERA may be 3.36 but his xFIP is 4.39. That is more than a full run difference which I find disheartening. Also, LHB have a .377 wOBA versus Fister which makes players like Adam Eaton extra scary. The current White Sox roster is 21-for-77 with zero HR, eight RBI, and 16 strikeouts off of Fister.

I just want to quickly touch on why I am fading Chris Sale. Although there is a ton of strikeout upside and he does have the ability to shut a team down, this matchup is less than favorable. First off, he is a Vegas underdog which sets off a huge red flag for me. Second, even though the Astros strike out a lot they crush LHP. They have a .326 wOBA versus lefties and it rises to .340 at home. Why take this risk when you have easier options?

Also, keep an eye on the Indians roster. If Marco Estrada finds himself facing a scrub lineup today after their long, long game last night, then he may be something to look at.

Night Slate

Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs

It’s Jake from State Farm, that’s right, none other than Jake Arrieta. Tonight he faces the New York Mets and gets a positive park shift pitching at Citi Field which is 19^th in MLB in runs scored. He is a -174 favorite and this game has a low expected run total of seven. The Mets are striking out 22.3 percent of the time and are 28^th in wOBA at .297 versus RHP. At home the numbers are stable and the .297 home wOBA shows it. Over the last seven days, besides the home run debacle last night, the Mets are batting .243 with a wRC+ of 79, striking out 23 percent of the time. I am hoping a lot of the newer players are scared off by the five earned runs he surrendered in his last outing to the Reds over five innings in Cincinnati, opening the door for some lower ownership today. His price is high but the reward can be as well and I can tell you now that although he is NOT my favorite play on the night slate he is the best. If that makes any sense.

Danger Zone

We have plenty of BVP here with the current Mets roster batting .248 (29-for-117) with six HR (Asdrubal Cabrera (2), Yoenis Cespedes, and Curtis Granderson (3)), 19 RBI, and 29 strikeouts.

Joe Ross, Washington Nationals

Here is where the dilemma starts on the night slate. It is about salary. Joe Ross is literally thousands of dollars cheaper on the sites than Arrieta. On DraftKings the difference is gigantic. So you have to ask yourself when you look at the matchups, where is the value? Ross gets a positive park shift at home with Nationals Park being 21^st in runs scored in MLB. Ross is also a higher favorite at -200 than Arrieta even though the game has a higher 8.5 expected run total. The Reds are striking out 22 percent of the time with a low .304 wOBA and wRC+ of 85 versus RHP. They are equally pathetic on the road where there wOBA is .302 (26^th in MLB). It may be hot outside but the Reds are ice cold batting .222 (29^th in MLB) over the last seven days coming in dead last in wRC+ at 69. Ross over his last three starts has 18 strikeouts over his last 18 1/3 innings with a 4.42 ERA mostly due to a bad outing versus the Mets. Everything I see here says, "attack!" I am all in on Ross today.

Danger Zone

The BVP here is zero so my biggest concern at this point would be the fact LHB have a .350 wOBA versus Ross. It makes players like Joey Votto exceptionally dangerous today.

Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres

Even the San Diego Chicken will be playing Drew Pomeranz tonight in DFS. Tonight he is facing the Yankees who are striking out a low 17.6 percent of the time with a .303 wOBA versus LHP. The Yanks are also 29^th in MLB in both road wOBA at .288 and wRC+ at 76. Pomeranz gets a positive park shift historically at home in Petco Park and is a -125 favorite in a game with an expected run total of 7.5. Over his last two starts versus the Nationals at home and Reds on the road he has 13 strikeouts over 13 innings with a 2.08 ERA. He is also a groundball pitcher (1.39 GB/FB) and has the highest swinging strike percentage on the night slate (12.4 percent) and gets my call as the top play on DraftKings for cash games due to the savings over Arrieta.

Danger Zone

We have a little bit of BVP here with the current Yankees roster batting .158 (6-for-38) with one HR (Brett Gardner), one RBI, and seven strikeouts. Go get 'em Drew!

Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Dodgers

If you are a new DFS player then you are about to get the “Coors Field” lesson. The Colorado Rockies are striking out 23.9 percent of the time with a nice .339 wOBA versus LHP on the season. You ready? Get your pencils. Half of these games are at Coors Field which allows the most runs in MLB. The Rockies, although having scary numbers, rival the Phillies on the road. Outside of Coors Field the Rockies have a .313 wOBA which is significantly lower. Tonight they also are playing in the best pitcher’s park in MLB, you guessed it, the home of my beloved Dodgers. Yes, Dodger Stadium is 30^th in runs scored and 18^th in HR allowed in MLB so my man Scott Kazmir gets a great park shift at home. Although Kazmir often has first inning woes his low $6,400 salary on DraftKings could make you smile. He is, for sure that guy who is going to give up some runs most of the time but at home his ERA is 3.97 as opposed to his 5.40 road ERA. His xFIP is also almost a half run lower which suggests perhaps he is half unlucky. Either way, with Kazmir you are looking at him giving up three runs over 6 2/3 innings tonight with seven strikeouts for peanuts. The weather is going to be nice in cool in Los Angeles tonight dragging the ball down with it. He is the guy I will pairing a stud with on DraftKings tonight and I will have at least one FanDuel lineup with Kazmir at the top.

Danger Zone

First off, do not get nervous if he comes out tonight and gives up three runs in the first inning. It is a very likely occurrence from which he usually bounces back from and starts punching out batters. The current Rockies roster is batting .213 (10-for-47) with three HR (Nolan Arenado, Brandon Barnes, and Ryan Raburn), seven RBI, and 13 strikeouts.

James Paxton I find slightly intriguing tonight but not enough to commit to him. But in a GPP, maybe for a few bucks.

I will be on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio tonight at 11 p.m. with Joe Pisapia talking baseball. Hopefully anyway. This will be our third try to get this done. Some unforeseen emergency keeps happening on my end. So, keep your fingers crossed.

Go Dodgers!

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com

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