So I spent three days in New Jersey attending Dodgers-Mets games at Citi Field. I love that stadium but I have noticed a significant change in the demeanor of Mets fans. Prior to last season they were the among the kindest fans to the fans of visiting teams I have seen. This season, not so much. I heard insults (not at me) and even threats in some cases thrown at fans in Dodgers jerseys. This really bothers me as a Dodger fan, a baseball fan, and a human being. This is baseball, there is kids at the park. Lots of them. Behave.
We got our usual full Saturday slate today with all the usual risk from subpar SP that goes with it. Outside of the top few I really struggled to find a viable SP that I actually wanted to use today. This tells me it is a pay up for pitching kind of day. What I mean by this is on FanDuel you want to get that top stud and on a two-pitcher site if you can (especially with no Coors Field game) spend up for two studs and hunt down value. I would try and save at the catcher, second base, and an outfield position while looking for power out of first base, third base, and one outfield spot at least. Also the weather situation today is precarious so keep a close eye on it.
So with a whole slate of risky starting pitching ahead of us, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.
Top Cash Game Plays
As always these plays are the ones to be used on a one-pitcher site and you should have at least one of these players in your lineup on a two-pitcher site in cash games. I give more consideration to FanDuel pricing rather than DraftKings pricing for this section.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hello, McFly? This has to be the no-brainer play of the day in DFS. Kershaw has been utterly dominant this season up till now and tonight faces the Atlanta Braves. How bad are the Braves? Terrible. The Braves are striking out 23 percent of the time with a .264 wOBA (30th in MLB) and wRC+ of 62 (also 30th in MLB) versus LHP on the season. On the road their woes do not get much better coming in with a .283 wOBA (29th in MLB) and over the last seven days they are batting a lousy .157 and have a wRC+ of 21 (both dead last in MLB). On the other side of the coin, Kershaw over his last five starts has 51 strikeouts over 40 2/3 innings with a 1.11 ERA. He also benefits from a positive park shift at Dodger Stadium that is 30th in MLB in runs scored. Tonight he faces Bud Norris who belongs anywhere but on the mound so the Dodger bats should bring home the bonus for the win. He does not walk batters, has a 10.90 K/9, is elite in pretty much every category, and gets my call as the top play of the day in cash games and the must pair on two-pitcher sites. Prior to the announcement Bud Norris would be facing Kershaw today he was a -400 favorite. A number I cannot remember seeing.
Danger Zone
I don’t know, he cuts his finger before the game slicing an apple and cannot pitch tonight. Outside of that I see NOTHING to worry about here.
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (Weather risk!)
First off, I just want to say that the difference between Clayton Kershaw today and Stephen Strasburg is larger than the dinner plates on “My six-hundred-pound life." At first I looked at Sale but saw things that scared me off. Mostly, the Tigers facing LHP. Then I took a look at Steven Wright facing Toronto. It looked decent enough until I saw how expensive he was today across the sites. Way overpriced for my liking. So I am kind of forcing Stephen Strasburg here. A theme that will feel very familiar by the end of this article. Today is really, really yucky.
Strasburg today gets a less than favorable park shift today on the road at the “Great American Small Park” in Cincinnati, where he has struggled terribly over the small 6 1/3 innings pitched sample size we have. In his only start there back in 2013 he gave up nine hits and six earned runs over 5 1/3 innings pitched. I do believe the difference between 2013 Strasburg and 2016 Strasburg is like night and day so this scares me little. The Reds are striking out 21.8 percent of the time with a low .307 wOBA versus RHP. At home the wOBA elevates slightly rising to .315 and over the last seven days they are batting a whopping .321. Keep in mind they just played a high scoring series at Coors Field. This game has an expected run total of eight with the Nationals being -195 favorites and Strasburg over his last two starts versus the Mets and Cardinals has 15 strikeouts over 12 2/3 innings with a 2.13 ERA. If you are going to pivot off of Kershaw in cash games on a one-pitcher site than Strasburg is the man. On a two-pitcher site I would try like hell to pair him with Kershaw although doing so is very, very, difficult. Nearly impossible, if you do not want to throw up looking at your lineup.
Danger Zone
The current Reds roster is batting .273 (12-for-44) with one HR (Joey Votto) and four RBI off of Strasburg with eight strikeouts. I will gladly attack the Reds before the Tigers or the Blue Jays.
Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).
Tough would be an understatement here for this section. Outside of Kershaw things get real difficult and trying to find a decent SP to pair with him is even tougher. As always when doing this section, I pay more attention to the pricing on DraftKings rather than FanDuel. I also want to add that on DraftKings today it feels like prices are over-inflated for some mediocre pitchers.Next add in the precarious weather situations which could scratch starters for DFS purposes and the choices slim even more.
Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers
Guerra today for the price of $6,800 on DraftKings is by far my favorite option to pair with Kershaw tonight. The problem is this game is at 3:05 p.m. and is unavailable on most slates. So unless you are playing an all-day or early slate he will be unavailable. Which sucks big time.
Today Guerra gets a positive park shift facing the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park which is 25th in runs scored in MLB. He also benefits from facing the Phillies themselves who are striking out 21.8 percent of the time with a low .292 wOBA (tied for 28th in MLB with the Atlanta Braves) and wRC+ of 79 (29th in MLB) versus RHP. They also are 29th in home wOBA at .280 and are batting a pathetic .179 over the last seven days striking out 25.8 percent of the time. Guerra has a 2.38 ERA over his last two starts versus the tough Cardinals and horrible Braves striking out 12 batters over 11 1/3 innings. He is a -104 favorite on the road pitching in a game with a low (compared to the rest today) expected run total of eight. I am going to be playing exclusively on the all-day slate on DraftKings today for the sole purpose of using Guerra. That is how confident I am this one will be low scoring today.
Danger Zone
We have little to go by as he has yet to face any of the batters on the current Phillies roster (at least in the majors). You still have a few big bats to navigate around but with no extreme splits to the left or right for batters Guerra certainly leaves things open in the form of a question that will be answered by days’ end.
Matt Andriese, Tampa Bay Rays (Weather risk!)
Once again we have weather concerns in Minnesota. A theme very popular there this week. If you want to use Kershaw today,you will have to find someone to pair with him on two-pitcher sites for the main slate. Although the strikeout totals are anything but impressive I am opting for the safety side of things today and passing on the K upside with my complimentary pitcher and using Matt Andriese. Today he gets a positive park shift pitching at Target Field facing a Twins team that is striking out 21.7 percent of the time with a .312 wOBA versus RHP. At home the Twins have a .314 wOBA and have been picking things up as of late batting .278 over the last seven days. Meanwhile, Andriese has continued to get it done posting a 2.36 ERA over his last five starts but only has 20 strikeouts over them 34 1/3 innings. Outside of the 5.24 K/9 his numbers are excellent and I will gladly try to snag 15-to-20 fantasy points on DraftKings out of him today to go along with Kersh. This game also has an 8.5 expected run total (which is right in line with the rest of the slate) and Andriese is a -117 favorite.
Danger Zone
He has a very small sample size to work with here facing the Twins but it is not pretty. The current Twins roster is batting .357 (5-for-14) with one HR (Brian Dozier) and six RBI with four strikeouts. I have no problem at the price dealing with this risk.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
The weird thing is today is the GPP plays are not cheap. Like I mentioned earlier it seems the pricing is a little inflated for pitching today across the industry. Of course anytime you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.
Colin McHugh, Houston Astros
Although we have a ton of risk here the weather is not one of them. Believe it or not, although Minute Maid Park is generally perceived as a hitter’s park, so far this season it is 27th in HR allowed and runs scored in MLB. So perception or not, the numbers say at least for now Colin McHugh gets a positive park shift at home. The Oakland Athletics may be strikeout stingy doing so at a low 18.6 percent of the time versus RHP but they have a low .295 wOBA to go with it. On the road it does not get much better elevating to .306. The reason I bumped McHugh from the paring section to the GPP is this. The Athletics over the last seven days have a .325 average with a 145 wRC+. Against an ace this would not scare me, against McHugh it certainly does. He had a rough start to the 2016 season but seems to have righted the ship as of late striking out 18 batters over his last 14 1/3 innings pitched. He did also allow six earned runs in this span but considering he pitched a complete game in Arizona and faced the Orioles at home, six earned runs is more than stellar. For the price of $8,200 on DraftKings and $8,000 FanDuel ownership here should be low. He is also the -120 favorite and this game by slate standards has a low expected run total of eight.
Danger Zone
McHugh has actually dominated the current Athletics roster. They are batting .214 (21-for-98) with two HR (Billy Butler and Josh Reddick), nine RBI, and a whopping 26 strikeouts. Which I find nice for a team that is strikeout stingy.
Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies
This GPP play is more FanDuel specific. I mean on what planet does DraftKings think $9,300 is fair for Jeremy Hellickson? Anyhow much like Guerra, Hellickson has a great matchup today. The Brewers are striking out 25.8 percent of the time with a mediocre .318 wOBA versus RHP. On the road they have a .303 wOBA and are only batting .236 over the last seven days. Hellickson gets a positive park shift at home tonight and has looked pretty good lately. Over his last two starts versus the Nationals at home and Tigers on the road he has a 2.57 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 14 innings. Hellickson is one of them guys who is prone to the blow up but I am more than willing to ride the hot hand in this one in GPPs on FanDuel. On DraftKings, I will pass on him altogether unless I want to get cute and fade Kershaw. Which would be pretty stupid in cash games.
Danger Zone
Historically the Brewers have lit up Hellickson batting .351 (13-for-37) with three HR (Chris Carter and Kirk Nieuwenhuis twice) and only four strikeouts. All this aside this slate is just ugly enough to make all this acceptable.
| Name | Team | Hand | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | AVG | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | FD$ | DK$ | Aces$ |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | L | ATL | 86.2 | 10.90 | 0.52 | 0.42 | 0.168 | 15.4% | 1.56 | 1.93 | 0.65 | 51.3% | 28.2% | 1.82 | $13,500.00 | $14,100.00 | $8,250.00 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | R | CIN | 73.2 | 11.00 | 2.44 | 0.73 | 0.219 | 11.5% | 2.69 | 2.96 | 1.09 | 44.8% | 35.9% | 1.25 | $12,000.00 | $11,900.00 | $7,250.00 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | L | DET | 78.2 | 8.69 | 1.83 | 0.69 | 0.187 | 9.4% | 2.29 | 3.54 | 0.88 | 41.2% | 38.7% | 1.06 | $11,100.00 | $12,700.00 | $7,700.00 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SF | R | STL | 76.0 | 7.82 | 2.13 | 0.59 | 0.229 | 10.1% | 2.84 | 3.54 | 1.09 | 47.0% | 31.3% | 1.50 | $10,200.00 | $10,200.00 | $7,000.00 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | R | ARI | 56.0 | 8.04 | 3.54 | 0.48 | 0.213 | 10.3% | 2.09 | 4.21 | 1.16 | 44.6% | 37.2% | 1.20 | $9,300.00 | $8,700.00 | $5,950.00 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | R | TOR | 69.2 | 7.88 | 3.36 | 0.39 | 0.198 | 12.0% | 2.45 | 4.15 | 1.09 | 43.9% | 34.9% | 1.26 | $9,200.00 | $11,000.00 | $5,850.00 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | R | KC | 54.2 | 6.09 | 0.99 | 1.65 | 0.245 | 7.2% | 3.79 | 4.10 | 1.08 | 41.2% | 37.3% | 1.11 | $8,500.00 | $6,700.00 | $6,050.00 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | R | TEX | 57.2 | 8.90 | 3.28 | 0.94 | 0.245 | 10.1% | 3.43 | 3.72 | 1.30 | 41.6% | 32.9% | 1.26 | $8,300.00 | $6,900.00 | $5,950.00 |
| Ian Kennedy | KC | R | CLE | 59.1 | 8.95 | 3.49 | 1.21 | 0.217 | 10.5% | 3.03 | 4.48 | 1.18 | 36.1% | 45.8% | 0.79 | $8,100.00 | $8,300.00 | $6,800.00 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | R | OAK | 61.2 | 8.17 | 2.04 | 1.17 | 0.297 | 10.4% | 4.82 | 3.93 | 1.46 | 42.7% | 37.2% | 1.15 | $8,000.00 | $8,200.00 | $6,000.00 |
| Matt Andriese | TB | R | MIN | 34.1 | 5.24 | 2.10 | 0.26 | 0.197 | 8.5% | 2.36 | 4.30 | 0.93 | 49.0% | 32.4% | 1.52 | $7,800.00 | $8,900.00 | $5,500.00 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | L | SEA | 66.1 | 5.43 | 4.21 | 0.68 | 0.236 | 7.9% | 3.12 | 4.60 | 1.33 | 57.4% | 24.9% | 2.31 | $7,600.00 | $5,800.00 | $5,750.00 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | R | SF | 61.1 | 7.92 | 3.38 | 0.73 | 0.279 | 7.8% | 4.99 | 3.98 | 1.50 | 45.0% | 28.8% | 1.56 | $7,400.00 | $5,700.00 | $6,000.00 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | R | MIA | 61.0 | 6.64 | 1.77 | 0.89 | 0.261 | 6.0% | 3.39 | 4.03 | 1.23 | 38.9% | 34.7% | 1.12 | $7,300.00 | $7,000.00 | $6,000.00 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | R | MIL | 63.2 | 9.19 | 1.98 | 1.41 | 0.244 | 12.6% | 3.68 | 3.38 | 1.15 | 41.5% | 35.7% | 1.16 | $7,300.00 | $9,300.00 | $5,750.00 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | R | PHI | 36.1 | 8.92 | 2.97 | 0.50 | 0.224 | 12.5% | 3.47 | 3.82 | 1.16 | 38.9% | 40.0% | 0.97 | $7,200.00 | $6,800.00 | $5,450.00 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | R | NYY | 49.1 | 4.74 | 2.19 | 1.28 | 0.237 | 6.1% | 3.83 | 4.63 | 1.18 | 49.4% | 32.5% | 1.52 | $7,200.00 | $4,700.00 | $5,550.00 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | R | BOS | 74.2 | 6.15 | 2.41 | 0.72 | 0.253 | 8.1% | 4.46 | 3.79 | 1.25 | 59.9% | 22.4% | 2.68 | $7,000.00 | $7,100.00 | $6,350.00 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | R | WSH | 60.1 | 8.35 | 4.03 | 1.04 | 0.204 | 10.7% | 3.43 | 4.44 | 1.19 | 39.9% | 37.3% | 1.07 | $6,900.00 | $6,300.00 | $5,450.00 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | R | BAL | 43.0 | 5.65 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 0.266 | 9.0% | 3.98 | 3.62 | 1.19 | 61.3% | 21.1% | 2.90 | $6,900.00 | $8,500.00 | $5,800.00 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | L | LAA | 60.1 | 4.92 | 3.58 | 1.19 | 0.253 | 7.8% | 4.33 | 4.93 | 1.36 | 50.5% | 33.0% | 1.53 | $6,900.00 | $6,400.00 | $5,600.00 |
| Andrew Cashner | SD | R | COL | 47.0 | 6.13 | 3.64 | 0.96 | 0.254 | 5.9% | 4.79 | 4.82 | 1.40 | 48.6% | 32.9% | 1.48 | $6,500.00 | $5,000.00 | $6,000.00 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | R | TB | 48.0 | 7.69 | 3.38 | 0.94 | 0.275 | 9.5% | 4.13 | 4.15 | 1.46 | 43.4% | 33.1% | 1.31 | $6,300.00 | $8,000.00 | $5,900.00 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | LAA | R | PIT | 53.0 | 7.98 | 2.38 | 1.02 | 0.237 | 9.5% | 4.42 | 3.48 | 1.19 | 52.6% | 26.9% | 1.95 | $6,100.00 | $6,700.00 | $5,400.00 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | L | NYM | 40.0 | 3.60 | 2.70 | 0.90 | 0.266 | 3.7% | 4.50 | 5.28 | 1.33 | 42.2% | 36.3% | 1.16 | $6,100.00 | $5,200.00 | $5,400.00 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | R | CWS | 52.2 | 4.96 | 3.42 | 1.71 | 0.330 | 8.3% | 4.96 | 4.85 | 1.77 | 47.6% | 29.1% | 1.64 | $6,000.00 | $4,600.00 | $5,850.00 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | R | SD | 64.1 | 6.44 | 2.52 | 1.26 | 0.274 | 7.6% | 5.46 | 4.18 | 1.38 | 49.0% | 30.1% | 1.63 | $5,900.00 | $5,600.00 | $5,250.00 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | R | HOU | 53.0 | 6.96 | 3.74 | 1.70 | 0.291 | 9.3% | 5.09 | 4.46 | 1.58 | 50.6% | 29.4% | 1.72 | $5,000.00 | $6,100.00 | $5,550.00 |
| Edwin Escobar | ARI | L | CHI | 3.1 | 5.40 | 2.70 | 0.00 | 0.526 | 9.2% | 18.90 | 6.56 | 3.30 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 1.50 | $4,600.00 | $4,000.00 | $5,300.00 |
| Bud Norris | ATL | R | LA | 41.0 | 6.80 | 4.39 | 1.32 | 0.287 | 7.5% | 5.71 | 4.88 | 1.63 | 44.2% | 32.6% | 1.36 | $4,000.00 | $7,300.00 | $5,550.00 |
Good luck today and keep an eye on your players. The weekend is here and players do get rested. And make sure to keep an eye on the weather.
Go Dodgers!
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com