Digging a Bit Deeper into the Effects of the Deadline Deals
Published: Aug 04, 2015
Some effects of deadline deals that may have flown under the radar highlight this Week’s Week That Was.
Troy Tulowitzki: There is no question that the Blue Jays new SS is stud. There is no question he is the best hitting shortstop in the game – when he plays. Obviously, if you are in the hunt this year, Tulo is a great grab. However, if you are looking ahead to 2016, I would not bet the farm on Tulo. Why? Health of course. Tulo has managed 600 AB only once in his 10 years. He has managed 500 or more AB only three times. Add to that sorry health record the need to play on that concrete they call turf in Toronto and you will see trouble on the horizon. I am rooting for Tulo to stay healthy because it is good for baseball to have the stars on the field. However, fantasy owners must be realistic. Buy for 2015, sell if you are planning for the future.
Jesus Montero: With Dustin Ackley off to New York, the Mariners may finally give Jesus Montero a real chance. They should. Yes, he was young and stupid and got out of shape. However, many forget that even now, Montero is just 25 years old and had some of his offensive development time taken away by trying to learn to catch at the major league level. Now that he is a DH/1B and in shape, the results have been darn good -- .346 with 16 HR and 75 RBI at AAA in just 376 AB this year. Yes, it is the PCL but still. Oh, and in the small sample size in the show this year, Jesus is sporting a gaudy .364 average and 1,000+ OPS. The Mariners need offense and Montero can hit. Jump on this bandwagon while you still can. [Note, remember, this is a kid who hit .328 under the bright lights of New York at the tender age of 21].
Hector Olivera: Keeper leaguers beware. Olivera is now in Atlanta and the path to playing time is smooth. The Cuban import is rounding into shape in the minor leagues. Thus far, Olivera is hitting .387 in his first 31 plate appearances at AAA. When teams were courting him after he became eligible to sign, word on the street was he was MLB ready. So far, his minor league numbers support that. It is a small sample size, however, Atlanta has nothing to lose so Olivera will play. This is worth a shot whether you are competing for the title in 2015 or rebuilding.
Domingo Santana: It is only a matter of time before Santana comes up to Milwaukee to fill the gap left by the departures of Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra. Santana is just 21. However, he has already showed some spark in the bigs hitting .256 with two dingers and 8 RBI in 39 AB. Yes, the 17K/2BB ratio is worrisome but he is 21 after all. In the minors, Santana has proven all he needs to prove. This year, his OPS is over 1,000 and his walk rate a gaudy 14+%. I cannot see Santana staying in AAA very long. Invest now for the dog days of August this year and the future. Huge upside, moderate cost -- what else could you want?
Arodys Vizcaino: It seems like we have been talking about this guy forever and each time we think it is his time, he gets hurt. Well, now his time seems to have come and he looks ready to pounce. Atlanta has handed him the closer role and I think he will run with it. Still just 24 years old with an average fastball velocity over 97 and time in professional baseball since his 17th birthday, Vizcaino is a good bet to succeed. Oh, add in the fact that he is in his second full year post TJS and you have another very good reason to believe he is here to stay. Buy!
J.A. Happ: J.A. Happ is now in Pittsburgh and back in the NL. Nothing here to see. Move along. Like many, I thought Happ would succeed in his first pitchers’ park. It did not happen. Pass.
Michael Fiers: The Astros are already messing with their new righthander. First he was going to pitch in the pen, then he was going to start twice this week. What happens? They pitch him in relief of course! This is not a pure stuff pitcher. Fiers relies on deception and control to register those K’s. Thus, moving him around and yo-yo-ing him can only cause problems. Shockingly (not), he was rocked in his surprise relief performance. Pass.
And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “At the beginning of each roto-season, a bevy of roto-pundits will admonish those that invest too heavily in non-stud closers, pointing out their mercurial nature and relative interchangeability. While Schultz rarely takes joy in endorsing the collective wisdom that homogenizes roto-sports across the country, Schultz cannot help but note that this year's trading deadline once again proved the point. I can only imagine that the roto-owner that put together a bullpen of Drew Storen and Joakim Soria spent this past week staring at the MLB transaction line in abject horror. Even more so if they spent any time this season acting giddy over roto-owning Jim Johnson. Although anyone that did gloat over roto-owning Jim Johnson deserved whatever happened to them this week. With the recent trades, Arodys Vizcaino, Ken Giles and random Tigers' middle relievers have become this week's hottest waiver wire targets. If they weren't already snapped up by "closer prospectors," this week likely marks the last time that "cheap saves" may be available.
The other takeaway from this week's trading deadline would be to store away in the recesses of your roto-knowledge some of the names that went the other way in some of these deals. Rob Kaminsky, the Indians' return for Brandon Moss, has quite a bit of potential. Daniel Norris, a key piece of the David Price trade will alleviate all qualms in Detroit about losing a former Cy Young winner, possibly as soon as next season. Astros fans are happy to welcome Carlos Gomez to town but are ruing the departure of Brett Phillips, a potential 5-category outfield prospect. Philadelphia may have dealt its best player but obtaining Jake Thompson (pitcher), Nick Williams (outfield) and Jorge Alfaro (catcher) may have exponentially made them better in the future. Don't do anything rash like investing in any of those players this year (except for Norris, who is major-league ready) but don't lose track of them as they make their way to the big show. You never know when the next Troutian Saviour of Roto-Baseball will emerge.”
Response: Schultz repeats one of his mantras worth repeating. Keep track of the minor leaguers moved at the deadline. Many of those will be stars of the future.