DYLAN BUNDY TO PITCH

Prior to the start of the 2013 season, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com all had Bundy inside their top-4 overall prospects. A couple of years of injuries, more on that below, and he was still inside the top-20 prospects heading into this season according to MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. More health woes have follow him…

Bundy had Tommy John in 2013 (June). Coming back from that surgery Bundy hurt his shoulder and had to be shut down due to calcification in the Teres minor muscle in his shoulder this season. He just started throwing recently, he had his first bullpen session on October 7th after last throwing in a game on May 21st, and is now on his way to the Arizona Fall League to pitch which is heartening.

Reports suggest he isn’t quite as gifted as he was before injuries stuck, though his baseball acumen and current skill set should still allow him to have tremendous amounts of success is he can just stay healthy. Given that he is out of options he will either be on the Orioles opening day roster in 2016 or they will have to put him on waivers at which point he would be immediately scooped up by another team.

JASON HAMMEL TANKS

This from Chris Jaffe. “On July 1, 2015, Jason Hammel had a better ERA than Jake Arrieta: 2.92 to 2.94.”

From that point forward Arrieta had a 0.89 ERA over 18 starts while Hammel was at 4.80 over 16 starts.

One stupendous. One dicey as hell. The dicey one, Hammel, then went out and allowed seven runs over 4.1 outings in two playoff starts. That leaves Hammel with an ERA over five over his last 18 outings. That is scary bad. Let’s look at the totality of the season.

Hammel had a passable 3.74 ERA but a strong 1.16 WHIP and 172 punchouts over 170.2 innings. That was the best K/9 rate of his career, 9.07, and he also brought his best walk rate ever as well (2.11 per nine). The result was an impressive 4.30 K/BB ratio. All of that intrigues. However, you should consider a major data point when ranking Hammel for 2016 (in addition to his poor finish this season).

Hammel threw 170.2 innings over a career best 31 starts. That’s his 5th season over 170 innings pitched the past seven years. Alas, do you know how many seasons Hammel has thrown 180-innings? Zero. Not once. In a career that began in 2006 Jason Hammel has never thrown 180-innings in the big leagues. Did he just wear down as the innings piled up? Hard to trust a guy who ended as poorly as Hammel did given that track record.

Finally on Arrieta, who just completed one of the greatest half season performances in recent memory, should there be concern moving forward? I ask because we need to consider one major fact. Arrieta saw a major increase with his workload. The 29 year old hurler had never thrown more than 176.2 innings in a season. Here are his innings pitched marks the last four years.

2012: 170.2 innings

2013: 154.2 innings

2014: 176.2 innings

2015: 248.2 innings

That means Arrieta just completed a season in which he eclipsed his previous career-high by 72 innings, a huge leap. Just something to file away when you start thinking about who to build your pitching staff around in 2016.  

 

DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting offering from the Alarm is the DFS Playbook Pro. We have four coaches for football (QB, RB, WR and TE). Yours truly writes the QB piece each week by the way. We also offer weekly DFS Rankings and Optimal lineups. We also have DFS articles for the NBA and NHL, and even the PGA.

 

WHO IS JORGE SOLER?

Jorge Soler had a massive run in the playoffs (see my LCS Review). I’ve already received a few questions on Twitter about his 2016 outlook. A quick series of thoughts.

In 125 regular season games Soler is batting .268 with a .325 OBP and .433 SLG. That’s all slightly better than league average stuff, but nothing that gets you excited at all. He’s hit 15 homers with 67 RBIs over 455 at-bats. Same as the slash line – decent but nothing of note. He has 145 strikeouts leading to a 29 percent strikeout rate. That’s really poor. His 0.26 BB/K ratio is about 2/3 of the league average. Again, not good. He has a 31 percent fly ball ratio for his career, below the league average of about 35 percent. His 1.43 GB/FB ratio is way above the 1.10 mark that the league average hitter holds. It’s also a very disconcerting number for a hitter who wants to be a 25 home run bat because you have to lift the ball consistently to be swatting big flies.

A strong talent who could break out in 2016, be wary of overpaying based off the postseason hype. He’s still a long way from transitioning his talent to high levels of production.

YOAN MONCADA SLOW DOWN

A future star, the 20 year old prospect of the Red Sox may not play in the Puerto Rican Winter League due to a bruise on his hand. If his 2015 “season” is indeed over, well, it was a heck of a start to his professional career. The second baseman appeared in 81 games at Single-A ball hitting .278 with eight homers. That doesn’t stand out at all, but there is more. He had a .380 OBP. That’s an OBP more than .100 points above his average. Love that. He walked 42 times though he did strike out 83 times in 81 games and that’s not great. But here’s the real treat. Moncada was only caught stealing three times… and he stole 49 bases. Wow is right. If he can maintain that stolen base prowess fantasy stardom could be in the cards.

DOMONIC BROWN RELEASED?

Domonic Brown was sent outright to Triple-A. He has the choice of accepting the offer or electing to become a free agent. He won’t be with the Phillies next season barring a surprise. Brown first played a big league game in 2010 and he entered the 2011 season as a top-5 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America and Baseball Prospects. He was one of the elite prospects in the game. Where does the 28 year old stand now? On the brink of becoming just a guy.

Over nearly 1,750 plate appearances, Brown has a .246 average, .305 OBP and .405 SLG. Since 2010 the average big leaguer has been at .254/.320/.404. Domonic Brown hasn’t even been an average big league performer. Additionally, a little exercise. Remove May of 2013 when he was the best power hitter in baseball (.303-12-25-17 with a .991 OPS), and this is what you are left with: a guy who has hit .242 with 42 homers in 465 games. Put it all together and we’re looking at a .242 hitter who has averaged 14 homers per 150 games.

Remember this tale next time you go all in on a rookie. Even the elite prospects in the game often fail.

DAN HAREN, BARRY ZITO RETIRE

Dan Haren ends his career with a 153-131 record, a 3.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 2,419.2 innings. Each year since 2005, a streak off 11-straight years, Haren made at least 30 starts. Over that 11 year time period he was a double-digit winner in every season. Over those 11 seasons his average effort was thus: 13 wins, 3.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 176 strikeouts over 209 innings. Compare that to the 2015 effort of Johnny Cueto: 11 wins, 3.44 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 176 strikeouts over 212 innings.

Barry Zito also retired with a 165-143 career record. Some may have forgotten his 2002 effort when he went 23-5 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 229.1 innings when he won the Cy Young award.

 

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