Daily Trends: May 7, 2015

DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting new offering from the Alarm is here! It’s the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters –Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach).

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RIZZO RIPPING

Anthony Rizzo has a .507 OBP over his last 15 games during which time he has gotten on base every single game. On the year his slash line is scintillating (.341/.474/.593). Dude is killing it. He’s only struck out 14 times in 26 games and scored 22 times. I’ve heard a few people complain about his RBI total, it was just 12 before he drove in three last night, to which I’ve responded – you’re bonkers stupid if you’re bitching about Rizzo. Dude has even stolen seven bases. Pace mean nothing really, but here is his: .341-30-90-130-40. Yes, he’s on a 30/40 pace.

PEDERSON BLASTING

Joc Pederson has hit seven homers in his last nine games. That fact alone is stupendous. Add in that he’s a rookie and it becomes otherworldly. Want to take it into the outer reaches of the universe? His last seven hits --- have all been big flies making him the first rookie to that that since at least 1958 (according to Elias Sports). Despite hitting just .260 the guy has a .420 OBP and .597 SLG. It is he and not Kris Bryant who has been THE rookie of the first month plus. What a start to a career. Speaking of…

BRYANT NOT BLASTING

Kris Bryant is now nearly 80 plate appearances into his career without a homer. His .391 SLG is lower than that of Yunel Escobar (.397). Ugly. On the flip Bryant has a stupendous .444 OBP which leads all third sackers. He’s had an impressive start to his career but it’s just not been what was expected in the fantasy game.

I CAN’T HIT LEFTIES

Pablo Sandoval has had a solid start to his career with the Red Sox. When a righty is on the bump the guy looks like the second coming of George Brett batting .384 with a .464 OBP and .500 SLG. That’s stupendous work. When a lefty is on the hill though he’s hitting like he’s Rick Porcello with a bat in his hands. In 28 plate appearances against portsiders Sandoval is batting .074 with a .181 OPS. Yeah, you read that right. For his career Pablo has always been better against righties (.306/.360/.494) but he’s also been passable against lefties (.264/.311/.381). Expect a rebound from Pablo, duh, but right now you’re a masochist if you’re starting him against lefties.

FINALLY HITTING

I preach patience, perhaps you’ve heard me say that before? Brett Lawrie has a hit in action Thursday to extend his hitting streak out to 11 games. The streak has pushed Lawrie’s mark up to .278 in the batting average category though it’s admittedly been a bit hollow. The guy has whiffed an incredible, for him, 33 times in 107 at-bats and he simply must rectify that. Odd to see his K-rate over 28 percent given that the mark has never been above 18.1 percent the previous four seasons. He’s also only walked three times leading to a poor .307 OBP. At least he’s driven in 14 runs. I still maintain that the 2B/3B eligible Lawrie will be a productive player if he can stay on the field and avoid the injury bug that seems to bite him every year.

D’BACKS ADD CATCHER

Tuffy Gosewisch is batting .208 with five RBIs over 72 at-bats. My goodness, the backstop has a .458 OPS. Jordan Pacheco really isn’t very good defensively but he’s always hit lefties with a .293 career mark (338 ABs). The club needed some offense from their catcher spot so they are bringing in Jarrod Saltalamacchia who I broke down a few days ago in the May 5^th Daily Trends piece.

BABIP TALK

Definition: BABIP, also referred to as a player's hit rate, is the rate at which batted balls end up as base hits. There is one caveat with BABIP – it removes home runs from the equation because technically the ball isn't in the field of play on a home run. The major league average is usually in the .290-.300 range but players establish their own levels so that some hitters consistently come in at the .270 range while others seem to record marks in the .330's etc. The league leaders are usually above .380, a level that is nearly impossible to repeat year-to-year.

Some early returns…

There are 11 men over .400. All those numbers will dip, significantly, over the course of the season meaning all 11 men are extremely likely to see their batting averages go down, some substantially so…

Here are some guys that are at the other end of the spectrum… guys that are really not making it happen but odds suggest they should… well at least get better no doubt. I mean, like adding .100 points to the party better… if they can convince their clubs to keep running them out there that is. 

NUMBERS TO KNOW

Ben Revere was inexplicably benched earlier this season by Ryne Sandberg. I know Ryne was a hell of a player, but how do you bench a guy who hit .300 with nearly 50 steals the season before after two weeks? That’s just awful. Placed back in the lineup guess what’s happened. He’s started to hit. Over his last 12 games Revere has hit .375 with five RBIs and a .912 OPS. If he’s sitting on waivers in your mixed league now is the time to pounce.

Steven Souza over his last 12 starts: no homers, no steals and a .480 OPS. He’s also struck out an absurd 41 times in 95 at-bats. He’s closer to Triple-A than he is to fantasy stardom. 
 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).