DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting new offering from the Alarm is here! It’s the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters –Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.
OTHER LINKS TO BOOKMARK
AM I GOING TO BE OK?
Shane Greene has been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Look at his per start card.
| Date | Opp | W | L | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| 5/10/2015 | KCR | 0 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5/5/2015 | @CHW | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 4/29/2015 | @MIN | 0 | 0 | 4.1 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4/24/2015 | CLE | 0 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 4/19/2015 | CHW | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4/14/2015 | @PIT | 1 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4/9/2015 | MIN | 1 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
In seven starts he’s been atrocious three times (16.36 ERA, 2.64 WHIP) and magnificent four times (0.60 ERA, 0.67 WHIP). Flipping nuts ain’t it?
A quick rundown of what is happening.
(1) After a strikeout per inning last season the mark this year is 5.14 per nine this year. Scary drop there as his swinging strike rate has plummeted from 9.9 to 6.9 percent. His velocity is down one mph but of course that doesn’t explain the lack of punchouts.
(2) Batters are torching his sinker to the tune of a .357 average over 56 at-bats. The BABIP there is .385 as well. Come on. Neither of those paces are sustainable for the batters (prior to this season the numbers were .318 and .337). Odd too since his sinker is really diving.
The problem isn’t movement, it’s where the pitches are ending up, right down the chute.
(3) On the plus side the walks are way down, 2.36 per nine, he’s not allowing homers, only two all year, and he’s still getting those grounders (50.8 percent this year after 50.2 percent last year. He’s also tossing out a 1.19 WHIP.
It’s been as crazy up and down as could possibly be imagined. Same time, there’s still hope if he can just locate his pitches a wee bit better. I’m still in Greene’s corner. So should you be.
WHAT’S WRONG WITH ME?
Adam Eaton has been awful. No sugar coating. He’s been dreadful. He’s been sick a bit but he is supposedly healthy, so what gives? (1) His walk rate is the 
same as last year. (2) His strikeout rate is the same as last year. (2) His 2.56 GB/FB ratio is just off his 2.69 career mark. (3) His hard hit ball rate was 24.3 percent last year, and though down a bit this year, it’s still close (25.4 percent). (4) His line drive rate is 17.9 percent, a bit down off his 18.8 percent career mark but nothing drastic. Now the issues. (A) His BABIP is down nearly .090 points from his career level and .124 points down from last season at .235. That’s stupid. Each of his previous three seasons the mark has been .294. With his speed and slashing style of hitting it would be rather surprising if his BABIP wasn’t pushing .300 by year’s end. (B) He’s a career .285 batter against lefties. In the early going this year that number is a mere .172. Let’s give it some time to even out. (C) After swiping 15 bases in 123 games last year he only has one this season through 24 games. That’s what happens when your OBP falls .105 points (.362 last year to .257 this season). That will improve.
As long as Eaton is healthy, and the Sox keep running him out there, a reasonable position to hold would be that Eaton is an excellent buy low option or add off the waiver-wire if he was cut loose. A strong run is on the horizon.
WHY AM I SO GOOD?
Mike Leake has made six starts with a 2.47 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Yep, those numbers belong to Mr. Leake and not Johnny Cueto. Terrific work. But you know me… I’m always Debbie Downer. The truth with Leake is that he’s in the midst of a great run right now but the good times won’t last forever. He rarely beats himself, his walk rate has been 2.25 per nine or lower each year since 2011, but he’s also never been a strikeout guy with a 6.14 per nine mark. Unless he’s throwing 200+ innings like he did last season, he’s nothing more than a place holder in that category. His success this year isn’t due to domination, but it is fair to point out two things about his pitch selection. (1) He’s throwing his four seem fastball less than ever before. (2) He’s increased his sinker percentage substantially. For his career he throws that pitch 36.2 percent of the time. Through the early going in 2015 the rate has spiked to 48.7 percent. Oddly, he’s still allowing homers at the same rate – his HR/9 mark is 1.03 this season – because when he leaves the pitch in the hitting zone it can get hit hard cause the velocity just isn’t overwhelming (90 mph).
Ultimately Leake could slightly improve up the totals he posted the last two years but he’s still nothing more than a low end mixed league option.
WHY AM I SO GOOD II?
Wandy Rodriguez retired 34-straight batters over a two game span, an all-time Rangers record. He’s been straight nails for the Rangers over four starts actually with a 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. The bad? The last time he’s thrown 100 big league innings was 2012, there’s no way he holds on to his 8.49 K/9 mark and his 3.86 BB/9 rate would be his worst since 2006. AL-only fodder is Wandy. Don’t be fooled into thinking he’s going to have some magical 25 start run to lead your mixed league squad to a championship. Look at his career ratios – 4.04 ERA, 1.33 WHIP – for the correct diagnosis of how this patient will play out.
A 9th INNING CHANGE IN FLORIDA?
Steve Cishek blew his third save chance in six tries this season when Matt Duffy took him deep Sunday for a game winning homer. "I was hoping [Cishek] would get out of it," Marlins manager Mike Redmond said. "It was one of those situations where he got jammed up. He walked the guy [Nori Aoki]. It's unfortunate.” Here’s what Cishek said. "I don't want to push the panic button now and try to reset everything," Cishek said. "Keep plugging away and grinding.” What do the Marlins do?
Cishek has a 10.64 K/9 mark this season. Great.
Cishek has a 5.73 BB9 rate this season. Horrific.
Wait, I’m gonna stop.
The fact is the guy has recorded 11 innings of outs this season. Simply can’t draw anything meaningful from that. The real question is how much rope does Cishek receiving? The man does have back-to-back seasons of 34 and 39 saves, but in those two seasons he only blew six saves (remember, he’s already torpedoed three games this season). You can’t have your 9th inning man just giving games away, but you also have to maintain the faith in your best arm.
If you want to be forward thinking… I would assume A.J. Ramos would get the call if the team moved away from Cishek. Ramos is in his fourth season for the Marlins and he’s coming off back-to-back efforts that included 68 games pitched. He’s got a strong strikeout game – 10.20 per nine – but he walks the house at times with a career mark of 5.07 per nine. The number is down to 3.18 per nine this season. It’s like he and Cishek swapped walk rates. I would expect both hurler to be closer to their career norms as we move forward and that paints Ramos as a risky proposition even if he garners some 9th inning work.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).