DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting offering from the Alarm is the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters –Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.
OTHER LINKS TO BOOKMARK
A.J. Burnett gave up 14 hits against the Nationals, the most he’s ever allowed in a contest, in his last outing. That’s a lot. In fact, according to Andrew Simon of MLB.com, Burnett is the first pitcher since August 21st, 2007 to give up 14 hits in a game but no more than three earned runs (Scott Baker). No one can be complaining about Burnett’s 2.05 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, which is pretty darn impressive work. His swinging strike rate is 8.5 percent which would be a five year low, but that 53 percent ground ball rate helps to mitigate some of the concerns. The key is the walks. Dude issues 3.64 walks per nine over the course of his career. This year the mark is 2.44 which would be a career best. I can’t see how that continues but even if it ticks up without exploding Burnett has the look of a guy who is going to be a second half stalwart in mixed leagues.
Carlos Carrasco has a 4.35 ERA and people are disappointed. I get it, but it’s not really reflective of his work. Check out the massive K-rate (10.04) and the terrific walk rate (2.01). The result is an elite K/BB ratio of 5.00 that is the 14th best mark in baseball. His groundball rate is down a bit at 47 percent, it’s 50 percent for his career, but the guy is pretty much pitching as well as could be expected, even if he hasn’t taken the next step as some had hoped. Some of that is due to a .347 BABIP, but it’s noteworthy that his xFIP last year was 2.66. This year the mark is nearly the same at 2.83. Last year his raw ERA was 2.55 (too low). This year the mark is 4.35 (too high). Split that and you have a guide rest of the way.
Jacob deGrom – maybe I was wrong about him. Over his last seven starts he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs each time out. He’s also been taken deep 
just once in seven outings and has walked a total of six batters in that time. Pretty difficult to pitch much better than that. I still have to worry a bit about his 23.8 percent line drive rate and his ability to keep his BAA barely above .200 and his BABIP at .263, but the K-inning arm we saw last year is back. The walks? The rate was 2.76 per nine last year and this season it’s down to 1.75 per nine. Can he sustain this level? I still having a hard time accepting that.
Marco Estrada threw 118 pitches Friday as he won his 4th straight start for the Blue Jays. He has a no hitter heading into the 8th inning before a bloop single led to his removal (the pen allowed the runner to score). Here’s what we have with Estrada. His 7.41 K/9 rate is the lowest of his career. His 3.22 BB/9 rate is a five year high. His 1.12 HR/9 rate is a four year low. His 9.6 percent HR/F ratio is a 6-year low. His .255 BABIP is an 8-year low. None of that suggests continued success at his current levels, especially being such a fly ball pitcher in a bad park for that in Toronto. Might be wise to try and deal after his great start.
Nate Karns has made 14 starts this season. Only twice has he lasted seven innings. Of the other 12 starts only three have made it six innings. He’s basically a five inning pitcher at this point. The ratios are solid at 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and who doesn’t appreciate the 8.20 K/9 mark? But the lack of depths going into games is a concern. Also can’t like the 3.53 per nine walk rate, and 17 homers allowed in 103 career innings has led to a 1.49 HR/9 mark for his career. That’s no Bueno. Do like the 46.2 percent ground ball rate though. Seeds but the next time may not happen until 2015. A solid mixed league option, but one who will see his ratios climb as the innings pile up.
Mike Leake has a 2.42 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over his last four starts. That’s the good Mike Leake. Over the previous three starts his ERA was 12.86 and his WHIP was ghastly at 2.50. Put it all together and you’ve got a seven start run with a 6.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Pulling back further his 14 starts have produced a 4.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. As a result, he’s a passable NL-only arm, but really nothing more than a spot starter in mixed leagues. He just doesn’t strike out enough batters (5.52 per nine) and right now his 2.61 BB/9 rate is three tenths of a batter above his career rate. Gotta bring that rate down. On the plus side, his ERA could come down a bit when that HR/F ratio of 18.8 percent regresses (career 14.0 and 13.1 or lower the last two seasons).
Max Scherzer is a bulldog on the bump. He was jobbed on his perfect game attempt over the weekend when Jose Tabata pretty much leaned into the pitch to take it off his elbow, one strike away from a perfect game. Totally bush league. Tabata, his friends, his family, his teammates, should be ashamed. Dreadful. Despicable. At least Scherzer was able to throw a no-hitter in the outing. Scherzer pitched his no-no on the heels of a complete game, one hitter against the Brewers. He struck out 16 batters in that effort and struck out 10 Saturday. In those two complete games he walked one batter. That means over his last two starts Scherzer has retired 54 of the 57 batters who have come to the plate. Finally, from Trent McCotter of SABR. The only pitcher to ever allow fewer than three baserunners in two complete game efforts is Pud Galvin… in 1884.
Justin Verlander – I told you. Through two starts he’s posted a 6.17 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. He’s also struck out four batters in 11.2 inning. Talk of the return of his fastball velocity is a lie. PITCHf/x data has his average fastball through two starts at 93.1 mph. That would match the career low mark he posted last season. Stop living in denial folks. Give his Player Profile a read for more information if you’re not convinced.
Adam Warren has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last eight outings. Granted two of them were efforts that didn’t last five innings, but more times than not he is keeping the Yankees in the game. No better example can be given than his last outing against the Tigers when he allowed two runs with no walks and seven strikeouts over eight innings. Now the not so enticing. His K-rate for the year is under six. His walk rate is league average stuff at 2.92 per nine. His HR/F is league average stuff as well at 0.94. Just not much to love. Like, OK. Love, no.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).