I'm sitting here thinking about last weekend and the coming weekend. Last weekend was all filled up with beautiful ladies. This weekend will likely be filled with booze in search of pretty ladies. Boy can things change in seven days. One thing that never changes is my unending quest to break down BVP data for daily matchups for the baseball season. Hope it's helping someone. Anyone? Bueller? Here are the matchups for August 28th, 2014.
* NOTE: Players are listed in alphabetical order for the sake of making them easily sortable/findable. The matchups are also generated based on Batter vs. Pitcher data. Just because a player is not listed does not mean that he is a bad or good play. The players listed below are mentioned merely because of the BVP data for the matchup.
DISH DIAMONDS – The Best Hitting Matchups of the Day
Mike Aviles has a .304 batting average in 23 at-bats against John Danks. His OPS is only .683 though so don't get too excited.
Billy Butler is hitting, finally. He's also produced six hits in 14 at-bats (.429) against Tommy Milone.
Miguel Cabrera has hit two homers to go along with a 1.417 OPS against Hiroki Kuroda over 12 plate appearances. Rajai Davis is batting .316 over 19 at-bats.
Chris Davis has long mashed Jeremy Hellickson. Can he keep that up Thursday? In 27 at-bats here is the damage: .407/.429/.741 with two homers and nine RBIs. Adam Jones has also ripped the righty with a .333 average and four big flies in a mere 42 at-bats.
Jonny Gomes mashes lefties like C.J. Wilson. He's hit .350 with a homer an a .480 OBP over 25 plate appearances in their previous battles.
Jason Heyward has a .375/.444/.708 slash line over 26 plate appearances when facing Jonathon Niese. He's also hit two homers and driven in eight runners. Justin Upton doesn't have a homer in 17 at-bats but he has hit .529 with a 1.188 OPS. Poor Freddie Freeman is just good with a .300-2-6 line over 30 at-bats.
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James Loney has stars in his eyes when Bud Norris toes the rubber. Loney has nine hits in 18 at-bats. Yes, that's a .500 average.
Joe Mauer has remembered he's a hitting star. Finally. Mauer has also ripped up Jeremy Guthrie with no mercy. Mauer has hit .360 with three homers in 25 at-bats and his OPS is a sterling 1.204.
Ruben Tejada has a .364 batting average over 22 at-bats against the up and down Mike Minor. Lucas Duda has hit .316 with a homer in 19 at-bats.
DISH DISASTERS – Worst Hitting Matchups of the Day
Michael Brantley has a .227 batting average and .670 OPS over 23 plate appearances against John Danks. That's the same batting average as Carlos Santana over his 22 at-bats. Santana has also struck out six times.
Josh Donaldson is just one of many Athletics' batters that seem to have no idea what to do with C.J. Wilson. Donaldson is batting .167 over 24 at-bats. Nate Freiman is batting .188 over 16 at-bats. Coco Crisp is hitting .135 over 37 at-bats. Alberto Callaspo is batting .192 over 26 at-bats. Josh Reddick is batting .143 over 21 at-bats. Derek Norris is the winner of the group batting .217 over 23 at-bats.
Brian Dozier has a .125/.125/.188 line over 16 plate appearances against Jeremy Guthrie. Dozier is a very limited batter against righties who can locate.
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Nick Markakis has been slumping the past week, and he takes on Jeremy Hellickson who has long had his number. In 40 plate appearances Markakis has two homers and six runs batted in but he's also hit just .211 with a .250 OBP.
Daniel Murphy is an extremely competent hitter, but he's not 100 percent physically right now. Not so much when Mike Minor is on the bump. In 21 at-bats Murphy has drive in five runs but he's also hit .143 with a .517 OPS.
Two Tigers cannot hit Hiroki Kuroda. The first is Ian Kinsler who has batted .176 over 17 at-bats (he's also been caught stealing twice). The other is Torii Hunter who has nary a bingo in 10 at-bats.
Ben Zobrist is 1-for-10 against Bud Norris. Evan Longoria is 1-for-9. Wil Myers is 1-for-7.
Bookmark the following four sources to check daily after you read this piece.
Batter Versus Pitcher
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MOUND MAVENS – Starting Pitchers to Target
Carlos Carrasco is good. For my thoughts on him see this week's Mailbag piece. He should be starting against the White Sox.
Jeremy Guthrie pitches at home against the Twins. The last time he faced the club, on August 17th, he allowed four runs over seven innings while picking up the win. He's also picked up a “W' in five of his last six starts (he's allowed a total of 11 runs in those starts), and for his career he's 9-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.12 WHIP against the Twins.
Jeremy Hellickson might not be able to get a couple of Orioles out but that doesn't mean he's a poor option Thursday. Through seven starts he has only one victory, but he's also allowed two or fewer runs in five of seven games and three or fewer runs in six of seven. He's kept the ball out of the seats as well with only three homers allowed, and he's not beating himself with nine walks on the year. Toss in the 3.25 ERA and 1.11 WHIP he has against the Orioles over 97 career innings and you have to favor him as a decent option once the elites are out of the way Thursday.
Hiroki Kuroda is boring good. Examples. (1) He has a 1.18 WHIP in four career outings against the Tigers. (2) The last time he faced the Tigers he allowed three runs in seven innings (August 5th ). (3) He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts during which time he's only allowed one homer. (4) In 14 home starts this season he has a 1.20 WHIP. (5) He has a 1.19 WHIP and 3.58 ERA during day games. Solid is as solid does.
Collin McHugh pitches at home against the Rangers. He has a slightly elevated ERA of 4.09 at home, but his WHIP in 10 home starts is still 1.09. Plus, McHugh has allowed a total of six runs over his five starts and during that time he's struck out 24 batters while walking only six.
Mike Minor pitches at Citi Field against the Mets. Both David Wright and Daniel Murphy are beat up, and the last time Minor faced this club on July 7th he looked sharp (2 R, 7 IP). Minor has tossed 3-straight “quality” outings and he has 19 strikeouts in his last 21.1 innings as he's finally seemed to turn things around. The Mets also have the second worst batting average in baseball against southpaws (.237).
C.J. Wilson sorta owns the Athletics. The current A's roster has hit .214 with a .612 OPS against Wilson in more than 250 plate appearances (you read the dreadful numbers of some of the fellas above). Wilson has certainly had an unsettled season, but he's allowed two runs over his last two starts and four runs over his last three. Plus, his last outing was on August 23rd when he held the A's to one run over 6.1 innings.
MOUND MESSES – Starting Pitchers to Avoid
Sonny Gray faces the Angels, and he held the club to three runs over 8.1 innings in his last start. At the same time he's also lost four of his last five games and his last four starts haven't exactly been glowing: 1-3, 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP with just 5.40 strikeouts per nine. Tough to trust right now.
Tommy Milone has a 8.49 ERA and 2.31 WHIP in three starts with the Twins. He faces the Royals in Kansas City Thursday but with his lack of strikeouts and recent struggles, how can you trust him?
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Bud Norris faces the Rays, the 19th ranked team in OPS against righties. Norris has also failed to go deep into games, failing to make 5.2 innings in three of his last four outings as his ERA has gone from 3.68 to 3.91. He's not pitching terribly, but at the same time he's just not going deep into games making him nothing more than a moderate starter with his win potential taking a hit.
Yusmeiro Petit is taking the rotation spot of Tim Lincecum, for now. He's pitched very well this season with a 1.02 WHIP and 87 strikeouts in 80.1 innings, but he's also made only six starts on the year. In fact, the last time he went five innings in an outing was back on July 22nd. That leaves open the question of how long the Giants will let him go. The numbers look solid, and the Rockies don't hit that well on the road, but the workload concerns makes Petit a moderate bump option.