“I’m flying high over Tupelo, Mississippi…with America’s hottest band…and we’re all about to die.” 

These are the words that begin the Rolling Stone cover story written by 15-year-old William Miller in Almost Famous, the autobiographical story penned by Cameron Crowe. Almost Famous is set in the early ’70s and depicts a young man’s willingness to risk it all for a chance to live the life he wants. Miller pretends to be 21 years old and convinces Rolling Stone’s Managing Editor to take a chance on him to write a story on an up-and-coming band, Stillwater. What the young man finds is that home is a confusing word and understanding real love is impossible for a 15-year-old. Enjoying the ride can teach you what you need to learn and give you a great story. Same was true with our fantasy baseball season in 2014.

So, now in 2015, we are looking to write the sequel. It will have the same base storyline of the SMART system (which Glenn Colton writes about elsewhere in the Guide). Glenn and I know winning championships is not easy and winning both Tout Wars and the FSTA Experts League and finishing 2nd in LABR is a rare accomplishment. I could stand on the rooftop and yell, “I am a golden god.” However, you are only as good as the current year. We will need to find diamonds in the rough again. Last year, we unearthed Corey Kluber, Tyson Ross and Chris Archer plus banked on Anthony Rizzo. We missed with a couple of guys, like Brandon Belt and Matt Dominguez and everyone missed on the uber-talented but under-performing Danny Salazar. So goes the prediction game.

Note: The use of "we" in this column denotes the thoughts of Colton and the Wolfman.

“Aw, man. You made friends with them. See, friendship is the booze they feed you. They want you to get drunk on feeling like you belong.”

Everyone in the fantasy baseball prediction business has the same sleepers. That way no one or everyone is wrong. We find players ourselves. Let’s just be clear that predicting hitters is really hard. Getting an inexpensive hitting performer can boost your entire team. For more than a decade, Colton & the Wolfman have been preaching that you want to make sure that you stay away from players who have not done it in the majors. So, let’s be clear, we will not be on any bandwagons here and we encourage you to not make friends with the pundits. Don’t drink their booze. Make your own decisions based on what you learn from them or us.

So, for hitters, the player must be 23-26 years old with 800 or more at-bats in the major leagues. Those hitters must have shown the skills to take the leap in the coming year by performing significantly better than the first year they played in the major leagues. In recent years, we have seen players make the jump in their rookie years, but Mike Trout-types are anomalies and the strategy is to stay away from players in their first season unless it’s the late rounds or for little money in auction drafts.

So, let’s go backstage.

Anthony Rendon, WAS, 2B/3B – Hard to call Rendon a breakout after last year’s nearly 20/20 season. He will turn 25 this season and all skills indicators are going up. He is not as fast as other base stealers, but has guile. He is not as powerful as pure power hitters, but doesn’t miss many mistakes. His splits are almost identical on all metrics. His eye is getting better year after year. He will not be under ANYONE’S radar, but with multi-positional eligibility at two scarce positions, it is really hard to pass up on a player like Rendon. We think that 30-30 is distinct possibility.

Jason Heyward, STL, OF – How the hell can you have Heyward in a breakout column? Well, the move to St. Louis will create a second breakout that will be bigger than the first. In 2012, at age 22, he had a breakout year by most accounts with 27 home runs, 21 stolen bases and a .269 batting average. The power outage last year is worrying people, but the metrics that people need to look at with Heyward are strikeout rate and walk rate. He is growing up. When ballplayers grow up, they learn the strike zone. With a better lineup around him, he will see more strikes and with an 83 percent contact rate, he will mash the ball. Expect the average to continue to rise to .280, the power to be back with 26 home runs, and for him to continue to run with 20-25 stolen bases. Maybe more of a bounce back than a breakout, but it will be there.

Nolan Arenado, COL, 3B – When looking at players who will be Almost Famous, we have to be careful about them breaking other rules within the SMART system. With almost 1,000 at-bats in the majors at age 24, Arenado fits those two criteria. Can he stay healthy? The two injuries last year, finger injury and chest contusion, were freak accidents and not the type of injuries that are indicative of oft-injured players. One red flag is that he is a product of his ballpark. His home/road splits are crazy. His run production at home is three times his production on the road and only two of his 18 home runs were on the road. He hits lefties as well as righties, but the main reason he makes this list is that in similar at-bats with the exact same batting average in the second half, he hit twice as many home runs. The power surge is coming this year, and he is especially valuable in daily leagues where you can sit him on the road.

Christian Yelich, MIA, OF – Another example of a player who has yet to find his power potential. His 21 stolen bases last year, coupled with his age and opportunity in a weak division, will make him command a healthy price. However, we believe that the extreme ground ball percentage will change. Turning 23 this season, his power potential may still be a year away, but you can safely spend on him because he will play every day and the stolen bases will give you enough value to protect the downside. Yelich had a complete power outage in the last half of the season, hitting only one home run. Young players need to figure things out, and maybe we are a year early, but he won’t hurt you, so a low-risk high-reward player is always on our list.

Avisail Garcia, CHW, OF – He breaks a lot of the rules. He had surgery last year, but he came back way ahead of schedule and played effectively. He only had 500 or so at bats in the majors, but he has had well over 2,500 at bats at all levels. His power potential has not started yet, and his numbers are not that enticing. He will be cheap. As he grows into his potential, he will increase his fly ball ratio, which will provide the power surge. We think it comes in 2015.

“Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid. Goethe said that. It's not too late for you to become a person of substance, Russell.”

You can take more risks with the pitching side of things because you are likely to replace a lot of pitchers and use some shots on reserve or taxi. So be bold. For pitchers, you want to target 24-29 year olds with at least 200 innings in the majors. Most pitchers have a tendency to come up, pitch, regress, and then make necessary adjustments. At that point, they either succeed or fall off a cliff. Let’s go back behind the curtain.

Alex Wood, ATL, SP – Although Wood is a year younger than we usually look at 23, he possesses the ability and track record to take the leap. With 170+ innings pitched and a sub 3.00 earned run average last year, he won’t fly under the radar. For a southpaw, Wood gets right-handed hitters out better than lefties. Although he doesn’t normally fit into the SMART system because his fastball barely touches 90 mph, we think he will be elite this season.

Marcus Stroman, TOR, SP – At only 5’9” tall and 185 pounds, Stroman is not scary on the mound. However, he does bring the heat with an average fastball last year of around 93.5 mph. Drafted in 2012, he had some trouble with a drug suspension in 2013 before finally getting himself together in 2014. Helped by a great infield, he was 7-2 with a 2.65 earned run average at home last season. When looking at pitchers, you want to make sure that the player you are getting has a high floor. You will get great late round value in Stroman.

Zack Wheeler, NYM, SP – Wheeler throws gas, averaging 95 mph on his fastball. Many will shy away from players on bad teams like the Mets. Wheeler pitches in a pitcher’s park, with a 2-to-1 ground ball to fly ball ratio and a good defense behind him. With a strikeout rate of one per inning, he is primed to have a 200 K season with a sub 3.00 ERA. This is elite, and you will not have to pay nearly as much for him as some others with more risk. Invest with confidence.

Danny Salazar, CLE, SP – Appearing on our list last year with disappointing results, Salazar is set to surprise a lot of people in your leagues. His fastball is close to 95 and he strikes out about 10 for each nine innings. In 2014, he had some trouble with the strike zone as he walked more than four batters per nine innings. Expect that to be corrected as the young hurler finds himself at just 25 years old this season. Don’t reach for Salazar, but based on the disappointment, high ratios, and earned run average, you should be able to get him cheap and reap the rewards of waiting a year.

Shelby Miller, ATL, SP – The change of scenery for Miller will help him a ton, like the player he was traded for above. Miller was a touted prospect and on many a keeper league farm roster two years ago. His step back last year will help you get him at a much better price this year. Miller lost the strike zone a bit, which caused him to walk more hitters and strike out less. He still had an ERA and WHIP well under the league average. The move to Atlanta will help his control enough to get him back to star status of a strikeout per inning and a 3.00 earned run average. Miller will be on a lot of our teams.

“If you think Mick Jagger will still be out there trying to be a rock star at age fifty, then you are sadly, sadly mistaken.”

Well, having just turned fifty, I will tell you that you cannot be a Rock Star at fifty. Youth, although wasted on the young, should be embraced when looking for your breakout candidates. You don’t have to be a groupie following all the so-called experts out there like Penny Lane, you can make a path for yourself. History shows that when you reach for rookies, you end up with wanna be stars like Russell Hammond. So make sure that you remember to look at the age and experience of each player and then examine their performance trend, ballpark, and team. Then bid accordingly. Oh, yeah…when reading this or any other magazine or website, take all the information in, enjoy the ride, but at the end of the day, do like William Miller did and write your own story- drawing your own conclusions and decide who you love, who you respect and what you are willing to do to be Almost Famous.