I play a decent amount of DFS in three sports: NBA, NFL, and MLB. Probably two-thirds of that is in cash games. When I have conversations with friends or fantasy players who are new to DFS, they often ask some variation of the question, “Which one is the easiest to win?” While none are “easy” to win, I often realize they are asking the question, “Which one is the most predictable?” 

To that question, here is how I usually answer:

1) NBA 

NBA DFS, to me, is by far the most predictable and easiest to forecast outcomes. It comes down to an equation of dollars and minutes. You have a certain amount of dollars in the salary cap and both teams must fill 48 minutes in a single game, so you figure out the best bang for your buck in cash game settings. The best players score the most points, almost without fail.

2) NFL

NFL DFS falls in the middle. For the most part, you know who will touch the ball most often or get the most targets, but several factors can impact that. The game script, defense, injury, hot hand, etc. The running back and the quarterback positions are simpler to predict while the wide receiver and tight end positions are tougher to forecast while being dependent on the QB's doing their job well. 

3) MLB

MLB DFS is the most difficult. It is often a game that makes you rip your hair out in frustration after a high-salary hitter goes 0-for-4, or a pitcher gives up four runs with three strikeouts to a middling offense and loses out on a win because of it. You can roster the best possible players in the best possible scenarios and still end up in the bottom quartile of a contest just because of dumb luck. 

 


Think about it: Unless he’s injured in the first couple of plays, Nikola Jokic isn't ever scoring zero points in an NBA DFS contest. This season, Jokic’s lowest score on DraftKings is 29.25 points. You were supremely disappointed by that outcome, relative to the salary, but you can potentially overcome it. During the 2021 NFL season, Jonathan Taylor’s lowest opportunity count in one game was 11. Again, disappointing, but he at least gave managers 8.2 fantasy points. 

In 2021, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – one of the game’s most feared hitters – had 36 of 161 games played where he went either 0-for-4, 0-for-5, or 0-for-6 from the plate. That's maddening if you spent the roughly $6,000 he cost to roster on DK or $20 on Yahoo. 

If you are new to MLB DFS, that’s the game you have to know you are about to play. This column will look at ways to minimize that risk in MLB DFS cash games and what variables to consider when building a strong roster. 

 

What Are Cash Games?

There are several types of games that can be considered “cash games,” but these contests don't tend to be as top-heavy with the prizes like big tournaments. Plus, everyone above the “cash line” receives the same amount of winnings. These can be: 

Double-Ups – In these games, managers are looking to double their entry fee ($2, $10, $109, etc.) and everyone who finishes in the top 44% will double their money.

50/50 – The same concept as Double-Ups, but 50% of the pool wins and you get slightly less than double your money in winnings. The reason this is the case is because the DFS site takes its rake from the game – leaving a $10 50/50 winner to usually win $19, for example.  

Head-to-Head – In these contests, you are competing heads-up against another DFS player. The same rules as 50/50 apply. You will win slightly less than double your money after the rake is removed.

Triple-Ups – In this contest, around a third of the participants will triple their entry fee with everyone receiving the same amount. 

Each will have variants or off-shoots, but these tend to be the most popular cash games. 

 

How To Build A Cash Lineup

1) Prioritize the Pitchers

With how much variance there can be around the typical hitting slots in your DFS build, cash-game managers tend to start and prioritize pitching. Why? It is extremely rare for top-level pitchers to get a score of zero or even negative points. For example, take an upper mid-range pitcher like José Berríos. In 2021, his worst performance for DFS came on August 12th against the Angels. In that game, he pitched four innings, gave up eight hits, four walks and six earned runs – a truly terrible performance. That ended up being his only negative performance of the year with -3.45 DK points. 

In his other 30 starts, he averaged 19.7 DK points per game with seven of those games eclipsing 25 points. In order for a hitter to reach 19.7 points on DK, they would need to hit a grand slam. Or a three-run homer plus a single. Or go 4-for-4 with four doubles. To get above 25 points, you’re almost talking about needing a double-dong game. 

Since those outcomes are very unlikely for hitters and are much more common for pitchers, we prioritize what even average production can get us from the pitcher spots. Berrios had 19.1 points on September 29th allowing three earned runs and striking out seven over six innings with a no-decision. It’s not that hard (or expensive) for a pitcher to get 20 points. 

2) Plate Appearances Equal Profit

In NBA, the adage is Minutes = Money. That means if you can find guys playing huge minutes at low salaries, they are often the first place to start when building a lineup. Similarly, in baseball, a guy who is batting near the top of the order at a low salary for a team projected to score a lot of runs – that's the first place we should look. 

In addition to looking at teams who are projected to score a lot of runs, batters who have excellent on-base skills are a good place to start – as opposed to mashers who might smack one out of the park once every 10 at-bats. Walks, singles, runs, stolen bases, doubles all count in DFS and players who can compile these stats for a low salary in your lineups can help add to the points floor. The guys who you pay up for can then carry your lineup with an extra power boost. 

The name Bryan Reynolds may not be one that gets you out of bed in the morning, but he was one of the best cash-game hitters in the majors in 2021. In his 158 games played, he scored zero points just 22 times (13.9%). His salary on DK was rarely above the upper-$4,000s, but he got you points over 86% of the time he was in the lineup. He only gave you a home run in 24 of those games, but his OBP ranked fifth in the majors. He may not have been a part of an elite offense with the Pirates, but he hit in the top three of the order 151 times out of 158 games. 

3) Putting It All Together

How does this all work in tandem? Here are two examples of lineups from contests I played on Yahoo last season. See if you can spot the differences in the build. 

Lineup 1:

Lineup 2:

Looking past some of the transgressions of the players in the second lineup, you can see some of the differences between the two. 

Lineup 1 went with a double-ace approach. Rostering both Scherzer and Kershaw that day ate up $105 of my $200 budget, so I had to roster cheaper players like Austin Nola, Michael Chavis, and Tommy Pham. The high floor of the two pitcher scores, plus some strong power showings from a couple of my high-priced bats, was able to overcome some of the cheapies who did next to nothing. 

Conversely, the build of Lineup 2 spent $92 on pitching and allowed $108 for hitting. This was something I prioritized because I wanted several pieces of the Rockies' hitters in Coors Field that night. Some of those pieces paid off and another spend-up in Ozuna led the way for the offense. But even a lower-tier pitcher like Minor outpaced all of my hitters, save for two. His 17 points for $37 was the key to being able to roster higher-salaried hitters and an ace pitcher.

Typically, this is what your cash game lineup will look like. Either a double-ace build where you are finding good hitting value, or one ace plus a mediocre pitcher in an elite matchup that allows you to pay up for more hitters. 

There are certainly countless variations of these strategies. Some days, there will be no aces on the slate and you are forced to look at pitchers who just have the best matchups. Those days are ones to prioritize the bats. But pitching, plate appearances, and power will typically rule the day. 

 

 

DFS Factors to Consider For Hitters and Pitchers

When building your lineups, here is a quick checklist of what to consider on each side of the ball.

Hitters

  • Salary
  • Ballpark
  • Handedness of batter vs. pitcher
  • Lineup slot
  • wOBA (weighted on-base average) for batters
  • Team projected runs
  • Weather
  • Batter is home or away
  • Batter facing my rostered pitcher?

Pitchers

  • Salary
  • Ballpark
  • Strikeout rate
  • Tendencies of managers
  • Handedness of pitchers vs. opposing lineup
  • Weather
  • wOBA of opposing lineup
  • Performance of opposing lineup against pitchers’ pitches
  • Typically do not roster opposing pitchers