With the fantasy sites now starting to post MLB contests in their lobbies, it is time to start talking DFS baseball strategies. This article will focus on the guaranteed prize pools, or GPP for short. For many users, going for the big tournament win is why they play, and with baseball, one swing of the bat could make all the difference. The first thing to know about DFS baseball is that every hitter starts off with a floor of zero points. When healthy, you won’t see a player like Steph Curry just stand on the court for 30-plus minutes without producing any points, but in baseball, a high-priced player like Mike Trout   can go 0-4. The good news is that a zero from a hitter doesn’t mean you are done for, but it’s worth knowing that every hitter starts off the same. After that, it comes down to outthinking your opponents in order to create a roster that not only has the potential to score plenty of points, but also has the ability to stand out from field you are up against.

Standing out from the field is key in GPPs, as most of the contests have top-heavy payout structures, meaning that most of the prize pool goes to the very top finishers. For example, DraftKings has a $15 entry, $500,000 season-opening contest up in their lobby. Even though this contest pays out the top 21.59%, first place will receive 20% of the prize pool, while the top-10 receives 38% of the prizes. FanDuel is pretty similar, with their $4 entry, $500,000 season-opener contest, paying 26.88% to first, and just 20.00% of the field. Please note that not every site, and contest has a top-heavy payout, and if you’re not looking for those type of payouts, many of the other sites have a more even payout structure. 

Either way, the goal when entering GPPs should not be just to cash, but to win the contest you are entering. Below are strategies for attacking GPPs.

Types of GPPs:

Each site will have multiple types of GPP contests in their lobbies for each slate. Depending on the type of player you are, certain structures may work better for you than others. It’s always best to know your strengths, and which contests work best for your style and goals.

  • Single-Entry:   Single-entry GPPs are like the title states, each user can only enter one lineup for this contest. Typically, you’ll see a mix of approaches in these contests, ranging from a user’s cash game lineup, to a full-contrarian stack play. I suggest playing what you think is your best lineup in these contests, rather than trying to be different just to be different. Having said that, if entering multiple single-entry GPPs, I suggest entering different lineups in each one.
  • Limited Entry:   Sites are starting to create a middle ground between single-entry contests, and max entry ones in hopes to provide another opportunity for the non-max entry user to take down a tournament. Limited entry GPPs are typically the three entries max on FD and DK, and 10 entries per user on many of the other sites. These are nice if you are a player that likes to create a cash and GPP lineup each day and looking for exposure to both lineups in a tournament. Entering a third lineup in those contests isn’t a must, but can always be used as your gut lineup. The main difference between these, and the large GPPs is that these contests have less of a top-heavy payout. For instance, the three-entry max DK contest in the lobby is a $3, $10K prize pool contest. It pays out only 5% to first, and 18.5% to the top-10. The $10K FD three entry GPP is a $1 entry fee, paying out 10% to first. 
  • Max Entry:    Many believe that if they just had the same large bankroll as others, they would be able to win all the time as well. If you believe that, I challenge anyone to spend a week max entering the $0.25 GPPs, and see how you do. Creating up to 150 lineups from a single slate is not easy, and doesn’t guarantee exposure to everyone, but just know that in a large-field GPP that allows users to enter 150 lineups, you’ll see exposure to just about every team stack. From reading previous payline analysis, you’ll know that single bullet or less than max entries are capable of winning, but you’ll need to hit with everyone. Please note that on DK, all GPPs under $5 are mainly 20-entry max contests, and exclude any user that has over $1 million in contest winnings over their lifetime.

If you are a max entry user, or like to enter multiple lineups in a GPP, I prefer picking a core group of 4-5 players, or a core pitcher or two, and build a team around that over trying to spread the wealth around.

Stacking:

Like many of the other DFS sports, I feel that stacking is key to winning GPPs in baseball. The main goal behind stacking is that you are hoping to get max points out of players from the same team, with the hope that those teams go off on offense. For example, if a team starts a game with double, walk, and homer run, having the 1-3 hitters from that team means you are receiving all the points possible from that series of events compared to three individual players recording a double, walk, and home run. The number of players from a team that you are eligible to stack depends on the site you play on, so please make sure you know your site’s rules before entering any contests. Below are my top stacking strategies.

  • Ballpark Stack: By ballpark, I’m mainly referring to Coors, but places like New York, Boston and Texas had some high projected run totals last year as well. When games take place at Coors, and sometimes elsewhere, you’ll see projections of 10 or more runs. These are typically the spots where you’ll see the most stacking. There is nothing wrong with stacking these games, but please note that everyone else is coming in with that mindset as well. The challenge is to figure out what the field will do. Will they all fade that Coors game thinking everyone will be on it, or would they rather pay up for Scherzer and pivot to the game in Arizona, or will they just go with what could be the chalky lineup?  Those are just some examples of how to think when building lineups.
  • Full-Game Stack: These stacks aren’t as popular, as you are pretty much going all in on one game. One of the reasons DFS baseball is not as popular as most of the other sports is the lack of instant gratification. What’s nice about a full game stack from a fan’s perspective is that you aren’t waiting 45-plus minutes for your players to have their next at bat. Stacking a full game provides the opportunity to score points in roughly every inning, and the hope is for a 7-6 style game from all home runs. 
  • 2 x 2: Pick two teams and go with four players from each team hoping that those two teams have big games. It’s often hard to stack two top projected run scoring teams but pairing a top projected team with a mid-tier team is my preferred route over a top team paired with the Rays up against Sale. Another route you can take is to target teams up against struggling bullpens.
  • Cheap Pitcher Stack: When it comes to pitching, I would rather pay up for pitching, while going cheaper with hitters. On sites that require two pitchers, that could sometimes be difficult. I’ll speak a little more below about going smart contrarian, but sometimes targeting a cheaper pitcher up against a strikeout heavy team will allow the opportunity to stack the higher priced players from a team over having to mix and match.

How to stand out

If you feel that 80% plus of lineups in GPPs are using some method of stacking, then strategizing on ways to stand out from the field is key. The main idea for me is to try to make smart contrarian plays. That doesn’t mean to take a starting pitcher at Coors or Javier Báez with the wind blowing in at Wrigley, but more of how do you still place yourself in a position to win while also standing out? One way to do that is being creative with your stacking. Many like to take players in order, such as the 1-4 hitters in a lineup. There is nothing wrong with that, but taking players in order sometimes isn’t the greatest. I prefer spreading it out a bit, by either removing one of the top priced players that has the potential to record walks all game or taking a lefty/lefty matchup with the idea that the starting pitcher won’t be lasting long anyways. Another possible move to make is with the catcher spot on sites. Don’t feel that you have to include a catcher from your team stack, but rather use that as a punt spot in order to have the salary to pay up for the stack, or pitcher that you want to pair with your stack. 

Overall, if you think that you can’t win GPPs due to every stack combination being likely covered by max entry users, then you have already lost. There is no magic number of entries that guarantees a profit but placing yourself in a position in which you feel that you have not just the potential to record a high score, but to have also outsmarted the field should always be your goal. Please feel free to use our chats throughout the season for questions or sharing your thoughts during the baseball season. Good luck!