Long ago, in a fantasy baseball league far, far away, the rookies lived among the sleepers, the hidden gems and the late-round fliers. There was always a fresh, new crop on display with the arrival of spring training, but very few fantasy owners were willing to risk their season on some baby-faced greenhorn with no big-league track record. The hardcore players knew who they were, but mainstream fantasy baller had limited interest.
Then came the internet, the explosion of the fantasy sports industry, the expanse of statistical knowledge and Albert Pujols. Yes, Albert Pujols. Despite tearing it up in the minors and advancing from Single to Triple-A over the course of just one season, it wasn’t until spring training 2001 that the young slugger popped up on the mainstream radar. Even then, however, he was still considered to be nothing more than a late-round sleeper.
Well, we all know what happened after that and from that point on, every single fantasy baseball owner became hell-bent on being the one who discovered the next Albert Pujols. The value of rookies began to rise and with it, we saw a massive increase in the number of dynasty leagues. Not only were the nerds obsessed with discovering the next big thing, but now they wanted their own rookie farms to harvest each season.
From Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Braun to Justin Verlander and Evan Longoria, rookies took center stage earlier and earlier in fantasy leagues. Most were still considered late-round options, but after Mike Trout and Bryce Harper emerged from the minor-league shadows, fantasy owners weren’t taking any more chances. Players like Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Kris Bryant were being drafted in the third, fourth and fifth rounds the anxiety over missing out on such a prized, young talent grew. In 2016, rookie ADP was at an all-time high.
Opinions regarding drafting rookies vary throughout the industry. Ray Flowers will tell you never to invest heavily in any of them. I’ve always been a huge sucker for a power-hitting rookie third baseman and while I am able to hedge my expectations with rational thought, I’m still heckled for reaches on players like Bryant, Longoria and Nolan Arenado. With any luck, you can find a happy medium. The superstars of today are developing at a much younger age than they were years ago and both teams and managers seem a lot more open to letting them cut their teeth in the majors. There’s nothing wrong with splashing your roster with youth and upside. Just don’t base your whole season on it.
That being said, we’re going to start this Draft Guide Rookie Report with a look at the top-25 youngsters who are expected to make a big-league impact in 2017. Whether they open the year on the 25-man roster or arrive for a second-half cup of coffee, they should be able to contribute to your fantasy team’s totals this season. As we move closer to spring training, this list will be supplemented with numerous other rookies who are expected to make their major-league debut in 2018 and beyond. Some may make an earlier appearance, but the way this report is structured, re-draft league owners need only be concerned with the first 25-30 while dynasty league owners can show some draft love to all of them.
Player | Pos | Team | Analysis |
Andrew Benintendi | OF | BOS | A centerfielder by trade, the 22-year old lefty is expected to open the 2017 season as the starting left fielder for the Red Sox. He's been regarded as one of the best hitting prospects in the game, according to Baseball America, and has exhibited outstanding plate discipline during his two-year climb from Low-A to the majors. Despite being under six feet tall and having a slight frame, Benintendi's quick hands and bat speed have produced a .200-plus ISO in the minors which most scouts expect to develop into 15-20 home run power at the big-league level. That power, coupled with strong on-base skills and above-average speed, have many expecting consistent 15-15 seasons with an average close to .300 and a strong OBP. Last season's cup of coffee only confirmed those expectations. |
Alex Reyes | SP | STL | With a fastball that lives in the mid-to-high 90's, a fantastic 12-6 curve and an ever-improving changeup, Reyes is expected to be one of the fastest rising stars in the game today. The raw talent is outstanding and he handled his 2015 50-game suspension for testing positive for marijuana like a champ as he returned in top form with a splash of added humility. He pitched fairly well in his first season at the Triple-A level in 2016, though like many young strikeout pitchers, the walks were a little high (no pun intended). That remained the same during his call-up to the majors, though he did a fantastic job of keeping runs off the board, as evidenced by his 1.57 ERA (2.67 FIP). Many expect him to be the ace of the Cardinals staff and their fantasy teams, but just keep in mind that he threw just 111.1 innings last year and the team likely won't increase him much past 150 innings this season. |
Yoan Moncada | 2B | CHW | The next big Cuban sensation has finally arrived. Well, sort of. Unlike fellow Cuban expatriates like Yoenis Cespedes and Jose Abreu, Moncada is just 21 years old (22 in May) and still seems to need a little more seasoning before he makes his big splash at the major league level. He's definitely shown the ability to be a five-tool player in the States, but needs to hone that plate discipline after striking out 12 times in the 20 big-league plate appearances last year which followed a 31-percent strikeout rate in 177 Double-A at-bats. He is expected to open the season in the minors and is expected to stay there until either Brett Lawrie or Todd Frazier are traded. Once he's up, he'll put that speed and developing power on display, so consider him a must-have stash if you can afford the bench spot in the first half. |
Dansby Swanson | SS | ATL | While the 22-year old is slated to start at shortstop for the Braves this season, fantasy owners should be aware that he could very well be one of those players who is great for the real game, but not so much for the fantasy realm. He doesn't have any raw, developing power, though he could post 10-12 home runs in a full season. He doesn't have outlandish speed, though he could swipe you half a dozen bags. He may not even hit for a great average either, though .270 might not be unreasonable to expect eventually. But he's got a fantastic glove and that could/should keep him in the lineup regularly so long as he isn't a liability at the plate. He needs to keep the strikeouts down and just toe the line. Yes, he was taken first overall in the 2015 draft, but that's because of his overall ability and metrics that don't play in fantasy, so be careful how you invest. |
Yulieski Gurriel | 3B | HOU | The 32-year old Cuban infielder could prove to be an exciting player to watch if the Astros find a regular home for him in the lineup. He began playing professionally in Cuba when he was 17 years old and has proven to be a dominant power-speed combo throughout his career. The scouts say he has plus-power and plus-speed while also showing a keen batter's eye. He seems to be drawing comparisons to Yoenis Cespedes, but like any other Cuban player, you have to look at the overall track record of all imports. The reports were high on Yasiel Puig and we all know how that has looked lately. Gurriel looked decent during his 2016 cup of coffee, batting .262 with three home runs and 15 RBI over 137 plate appearances and the Astros seem to have him penciled in to play first base to open the season. As for drafting him, you can hope for Cespedes with third-base eligibility, but be careful of investing too heavily. He should be available in the late rounds which makes sense. No need to take him much higher than that. |
Lucas Giolito | SP | CHW | He was every keeper/dynasty owner's dream last year but he struggled in his 21.1 innings at the big league level. There's no doubting that he has great stuff. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90's while he's got a plus-curve and a developing changeup. He had solid strikeout numbers in the minors and his command looked good, but when he brought it up to the majors, things just didn't click. Now, to make things more difficult, he was dealt to the White Sox and now has to endure the American League DH and The Cell, though now it's called Guaranteed Rate Field. The ballpark plays as hitter-friendly and Giolito had a 32.7-percent flyball rate last season with a 29.2-percent HR/FB rate. Now obviously that's a small sample size and you certainly cannot judge him based on that, but it's going to be a tough hill for him to climb. He will start the season at Triple-A and hopefully prove capable of advancing on a permanent basis this season. He is not someone for you to take in re-draft leagues, but he's definitely someone to watch throughout the early part of the season and see how he starts in the minors. The White Sox don't have a crazy back-end of the rotation, so if they feel he will benefit from a move up, it doesn't seem like they will keep him down as they rebuild. |
Josh Bell | 1B | PIT | Well, there's good news and there's bad news here. The good news is that Bell has great developing, raw power, a strong batter's eye, great plate discipline and even some speed. He's got all the tools to be a successful player at the big league level and could entrench himself at first base for the Pirates for years to come if he continues to improve his defensive metrics. The bad news is that he's got knee issues. He had problems with his knee in 2014 and again in 2016. Those issues have led to late-January surgery which will not keep him from all baseball activities for almost four weeks. That will likely put his Opening Day status in jeopardy and, more likely, see him start the year back at Triple-A. Obviously, it's not the end of the world, but even with full health, the Pirates might just think it best to keep him down there until Super-Two status is past. Once he's up, he should be a solid bat to add to your roster. He may have only posted a .133 ISO during his 152 plate appearances during his cup of coffee, but anytime you get a youngster posting a walk rate of 13.8-percent to a 12.5-percent K-rate in the majors, you know you've got something good. The injuries will be a concern until he plays a full season and proves otherwise, but once/if he gets past that, he should be a valuable fantasy commodity. |
Tyler Glasnow | SP | PIT | He's another jewell in the Pirates' farm system crown and is a favorite of pitching coach Ray Searage. His fastball is nasty, his curve is even more impressive and he's continuing to develop his changeup to give him an added weapon. The strikeout potential is immense, though again, just as you would see in any high-strikeout youngster, the walks can be a bit of an issue at times. Searage seems to believe that Glasnow's 23.1 big-league innings last year are going to have a profound impact on him mentally and he expects it to help him with his overall command. Glasnow is expected to compete for the fifth starter's job this spring, so if he nails it down, look for him in the middle to late rounds of your draft. The strikeouts will be a nice fantasy boost. Just keep in mind that he's still learning. |
JP Crawford | SS | PHI | The hype-machine had fantasy owners buzzing about Crawford heading into last season, but the Phillies prospect never even got a cup of coffee in the bigs following good, but not great, performances at both Double and Triple-A. This season, according to Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Crawford will open the year in Triple-A with any sort of promotion hinging on his overall performance. He's a solid defender, though Klentak believes he still needs to make improvments in that department, and can be a strong asset at the plate given his ability to hit for contact and put the ball in play. There's little to no power to be had and the speed on the bases is considered average, so look for him to be one of those "great in real life, meh in fantasy" players. If he can maintain his strong walk rate and outrun enough of those grounders, he could prove to be a nice help in OBP leagues. |
Austin Meadows | OF | PIT | Everyone seems to love Meadows as a prospect. Everyone. Scouts say he's got an incredibly high floor, they love his power potential and, of course, he's got some wheels too. His first jump to Double-A last year was a rousing success as he smacked six home runs and swiped nine bases while slashing .311/.365/.611 over 190 plate appearances. He maintained the power and speed once promoted to Triple-A, though a .236 BABIP and 23.4-percent strikeout rate kept the batting average low. As he continues to develop in Triple-A this season, you can easily get excited about him as a prospect with that type of power/speed offering. The problem for Meadows right now is opportunity. With Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte entrenched in the outfield, there's nowhere for him to play. Obviously, opportunity can arise later in the season should one of the three be dealt or get injured, but don't expect the Pirates to do anything if they're contending. Perhaps a cup of coffee late in the season, but even with his tools and ability, his contribution in fantasy this year may be a bit limited. |
A.J. Reed | 1B | HOU | When I wrote up Reed in last season's rookie preview, I and the rest of the fantasy community were relatively high on him. He showed some real nice plate discipline between High-A and Double-A in 2015 while continuing to put that power potential on display. The move to Triple-A in 2016 was also positive, though the whiffs picked up slightly. Then he made the jump to the majors and the wheels fell off the wagon. The power vanished (.098 ISO) and the strikeout rate spiked to 34-percent over 141 plate appearances, leaving the Astros a bit stunned by the drop-off. Sure, the sample size is small, but with Yulieski Gurriel now on the roster and Carlos Beltran slotting in as the DH, Reed's opportunity is blocked moreso this year than it was last season. Obviously Beltran is older and not exactly a beacon of health, but Reed is going to have to prove the strikeout increase was just adrenaline and over-swinging than it is a hole in his game. He does have the chance to make an impact this year if the Astros bring him up, but he's got some work to do first. |
Aaron Judge | OF | NYY | Scouts and pundits love to find good comparisons for youngsters when they're discussing future potential. When it comes to the lumbering 6-foot-7, 255 pound Judge, the immediate comp seems to be Adam Dunn. He certainly matches up in the size and speed department as well as the strikeouts. His walk rate seems to be slightly beneath which will effect the on-base percentage, but overall, the comparison to Dunn, isn't too bad. For me, I see Judge more in the mold of Richie Sexson. Their numbers seem to match up better and while that doesn't speak well to batting average, it certainly speaks volumes with regard to power. He's currently penciled in as the starting right fielder for the Yankees this season, but he's going to need to show that last year's 44.2-percent K-rate over 95 plate appearances will not be the norm. Considering the hype and the power, you can look to draft Judge in the mid-to late rounds of your draft. His strikeouts and batting average will scare people off, but then again, those are two things fantasy owners have learned to deal with in recent years. |
Jeff Hoffman | SP | COL | There's an immediate sense of disgust when you try to talk about a pitching prospect in Colorado, but as we've seen with others such as Jon Gray, there is definite hope that they can be productive fantasy contributors. Hoffman was one of the key components coming back to the Rockies in the Troy Tulowitzki trade and with a great pitching-friendly manager in Bud Black, his development should be steady. He has a nice four-pitch arsenal that includes a mid-90's fastball, a solid curve and developing secondary offerings in the form of a changeup and slider, so that's encouraging after seeing so many two-pitch youngsters failing in the majors. Hoffman threw 31.1 innings last year and while he had some command issues and a problem with the long ball, his 50-percent groundball rate is definitely something to watch as he learns to pitch at the highest level. According to reports, Black seems intent on starting Hoffman in the bullpen this season, but that doesn't mean he won't get some starts as the season progresses. It is, most likely, a way to limit his innings while giving him added big league experience. He's not one for fantasy owners yet, but if he does start making starts in the second half, he may be worth a look as a streamer. |
Hunter Renfroe | OF | SD | The former 2013 first-round pick of the Padres seems ready for prime time and is currently penciled in as the team's starting right fielder this season. He made a steady climb through the system which culminated in 30 home runs at Triple-A last season and another four in 36 plate appearances during his big-league cup of coffee. He's been working hard at his plate discipline and has seen gradual improvments in that department, though he's still not one to take a walk. Still, the strong contact rates and good batter's eye has helped him along with strong on-base numbers. Don't expect him to a high-average hitter, but there's no reason to think he can't, with a full season of at-bats, hit you 20-25 home runs and maybe kick in a half dozen stolen bases. |
Reynaldo Lopez | SP | CHW | Lopez came to the White Sox alongside Lucas Giolito in the Adam Eaton trade and is also vying for a spot in the back end of the rotation. He actually had a bit more success than Giolito during his time in the majors last year and looked fantastic at times. Of course, there were also times where he struggled with his concentration and command which brought about comparisons to the late Yordano Ventura. He's got mid-to-high 90's heat with a strong curve and developing changeup and has done a good job keeping the ball in the yard at every stop he's made in the minors. While the White Sox will undoubtedly continue developing him as a starter, there's a chance he lands in the bullpen at some point. Maybe it's an innings thing, but there's also the chance that he just projects better as a reliever. The team isn't 100-percent sure yet. Keep an eye on how they use him early as he could turn out to be a decent third or fourth starter with decent strikeout potential eventually. |
Jose De Leon | SP | TB | After watching him destroy Double and Triple-A hitting, the trade to Tampa Bay was a bit surprising. Just 24 years old, he blitzed through the minors with double-digit K/9 at every stop and continues to improve his secondary offerings. However, maybe the Dodgers saw something in his four-start stint in the majors last year that they felt they could part with him for Logan Forsythe. He got blasted by big-league hitting as he posted a 23.8-percent HR/FB rate over just 17 innings and saw his strikeout rate drop to just a 7.34 K/9 while the walk rate climbed. Still, there's tremendous talent here with immense strikeout potential. The Rays have done a good job developing arms, so keep tabs on De Leon while he opens the year in Triple-A. He should be up at some point, for sure. |
Francis Martes | SP | HOU | The 21-year old power arm has made some very positive strides in recent seasons, including some added velocity which now pushes his fastball into the mid-to-upper 90's. His curve is considered a plus offering and he has been doing well with the development of his change as well. Though it still needs some work, one of his biggest assets has been his command which is a bit unusual for a power-pitcher his age, and scouts love his aggressive mound presence, often referring to him as a bulldog on the hill. After an impressive 125.1 innings at Double-A last season in which he posted a 3.31 ERA with a 9.41 K/9, Martes carried that momentum into the Arizona Fall League and continued to dominate. The Astros will likely open him up in Triple-A this season, but with continues improvement, a promotion at some point this season seems very likely. |
Manuel Margot | OF | SD | While there was nothing special about Margot's very brief cup of coffee with the Padres last year, his .304/.351/.426 slash line with 30 steals at Triple-A give fantasy owners more than just a little hope that the 22-year old can help make an impact this season in a year where stolen bases are expected to be at a premium. The walk rate, through his ascension in the minors, is less than impressive, but his contact rates are fantastic and his speed should lend to the belief that, so long as he puts the ball in play, he can beat out infield hits with the best of them. The Padres have him penciled in as their starting center fielder this season which means if he can start the year relatively hot, he should entrench himself in the position and, potentially, atop the batting order. |
Carson Fulmer | SP | CHW | A first-round pick in 2015, the White Sox may have rushed the now 23-year old right-hander just a bit last season. He had some issues during his stint in Double-A, but the team brought him up to work out of the bullpen late in the year where he bombed to the tune of an 8.49 ERA in just over 11 innings of work. But upon his demotion to Triple-A, Fulmer worked heavily with Charlotte pitching coach Richard Dotson who helped him with his mechanics and delivery. The results were very encouraging as Fulmer yielded just one run over 15 innings with 14 strikeouts. He'll continue to work oiut of Triple-A to start the season, but should get another call to the show at some point this season to earn a little redemption. |
Jharel Cotton | SP | OAK | Many belief his make-up is that of a reliever, but the A's would very much like to continue developing the 25 year old righty as a starter. He's only 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds, so there's some skepticism about his stamina. However, after having his ups and downs in the Dodgers organization, Cotton came over to the A's and looked incredibly strong in both Triple-A and in the majors. He may have lost a little off his strikeout rate, but his command was outstanding and his swinging strike rate (12.5-percent) in the bigs was strong. The fact that he throws a solid cutter slong with his usual secondary offerings should continue to help him fool hitters and induce plenty of weak grounders, so keep an eye on him this spring as he looks to solidify a spot in the rotation. |
Lewis Brinson | OF | MIL | Acquired from the Rangers in a late-season trade, Brinson is a potential five-category contributor in the fantasy realm and could be in-line for a mid-season call-up, depending on how this seemingly rag-tag group of Milwaukee outfielders (not named Braun) open the season. His isolated power numbers in the minors look plenty strong and sustainable while he's also shown some nice above-average speed as well. His plate discipline can certainly use a little bit of work, but there's no reason to believe he couldn't be patrolling the outfield in the bigs sooner than later. We'd like to see that walk rate spike in order to help sustain the strong on-base numbers, but wouldn't totally hold it against him if he didn't. He'll just have to continue spraying the ball to all fields. |
Clint Frazier | OF | NYY | The early expectation is that Frazier, acquired last season from the Indians in the Andrew Miller trade, will have no trouble workming his way up to the majors during 2017. Strikeouts still seem to be a bit of an issue, but he's a strong power/speed combo right now with plus-plus bat speed which should help develop that power even further as he matures. Still very much a work in progress, the Yankees will gladly take their time with him this season while they let Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury play out their careers. Should the Yankees end up sellers on the trade market again, look for Frazier to get his opportunity with them in the second half. |
Franklin Barreto | SS | OAK | After a slow start in Double-A last season, Barreto finally turned it on in the second half with a .337/.393/.490 slash line, 22 extra-base hits and 16 steals over his final 51 games, keeping him high atop the MLB prospects list. His raw power is about average, but the plus-speed and improving plate discipline could have him working the Oakland infield during the second half of the season. There is talk about moving him off shortstop at some point, and that may even come as early as this year as there is a potential spot for him at second base, but even if that were the case this year, there's nothing saying he can't head back that way at some point in the future. |
Luke Weaver | SP | STL | Weaver was dominant in 12 starts at Double-A last year, posting an 88:10 K:BB with a 1.40 ERA over 77 innings. They had him make one start at Triple-A which he sailed through with flying colors and immediately landed in St. Louis for 36.1 innings. He was obviously touched up for some runs as evidenced by his 5.70 ERA, but with a 45:12 K:BB in that span, it was easy to see that Weaver was full capable of handling the big league workload. His line drive rate (36.2%) is what killed him last year, but once he finds a groove with his cutter, he should be inducing many more ground balls. He'll compete for the fifth starter's job with Michael Wacha this spring, but even if he doesn't land the gig out of camp, he is fully expected to make his impact in the bigs this season. |
Robert Stephenson | SP | CIN | Stephenson is a tough one for this list. In 2015, we had a guy who had a mid-to-high 90's fastball, a strong curve and a developing changeup. Last year, however, the velocity diminished and his change actually surpassed his curve as his best secondary offering. He was able to show some busrts of the old velocity, but that came at the expense of his command and his overall numbers, both at Triple-A and during his 37 big league innings, showed just that. If he can regain the velocity without losing his command, then he is deserving of a nod on this list. If he doesn't, he could be marked for relief duty which would give him a better chance to showcase the power fastball. |