26 years old
Bats/Throws: :R/R
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 195 lbs
Position: Shortstop
THE NUMBERS
Cuban National Series
| Games | AVG | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB |
2007 | 34 | .281 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
2008 | 73 | .341 | 5 | 39 | 51 | 0 |
2009 | 74 | .282 | 3 | 32 | 41 | 2 |
2010 | 85 | .294 | 7 | 45 | 44 | 1 |
2011 | 76 | .315 | 12 | 49 | 48 | 11 |
Career | 342 | .307 | 27 | 165 | 193 | 14 |
Professional Baseball
| Level | Games | AVG | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB |
2014 | High-A, AA | 47 | .273 | 5 | 24 | 47 | 7 |
2015 | AA, AAA | 116 | .278 | 13 | 52 | 59 | 6 |
2016 | High-A | 2 | .167 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
2016 | MLB | 111 | .300 | 17 | 65 | 65 | 4 |
Diaz was signed in 2014 as a non-drafted free agent out of Cuba. He signed a 4-year deal with the club for $8 million.
In 2015 the Cardinals didn’t see it with Diaz so the simply they left him off their 40-man roster exposing him to waivers. Any team in baseball could have claimed Diaz if they had been willing to assume the $4.5 million he was still due. Not a single one of the other 29 teams in baseball was interested.
A nobody before last season, here is what Baseball Prospectus had to say about Diaz the past few years.
2015: A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside a Cuban shortstop, Diaz lied about his age when he defected in 2012, causing the league to rule him ineligible for a year before he signed a four-year, $8 million contract with St. Louis last spring. His stateside debut shed little light, as chronic shoulder woes kept him off the field for much of the year, and the long layoff from baseball made him rusty when he did play. The book on Diaz when he signed was that of a contact hitter with little power who might be stretched defensively at shortstop, and while the club is happy with what they've seen of his bat so far, he's even more of a wild card than your typical maybe-24-or-so-year-old infield prospect.
2016: About as close as the Cardinals get to a "You only moved the headstones!"-level mistake, Aledmys Diaz hasn't impressed since signing a four-year, $8 million contract prior to the 2014 season. The expectation now is that he could turn into an extra infielder. Diaz passed through waivers untouched in July, so the rest of the league might find that evaluation a tad optimistic.
Diaz remained with the Cardinals after no one else wanted him. Jhonny Peralta injured his thumb in March of 2016 knocking him out of action so the Cardinals signed Reuben Tejada. The newly signed Tejada then strained his quadriceps, after being signed to take over for Peralta and, the Cardinals, with no other options, gave Diaz a chance. The rest is history.
THE SKILLS
As noted above, no team in baseball wanted Diaz in 2015. Two years later he’s going off the board as a top-10 shortstop in many leagues. Step by step
BATTING AVERAGE
Diaz hit .300 last season, an excellent mark.
He posted a .312 BABIP. Just slightly better than the league average and a bit low for a .300 hitter.
He posted a 31.5 percent hard hit ball rate. The league average last season was 31.4 percent.
Diaz posted a 15.6 percent line drive rate. That is light years from the 20.7 percent mark the league posted last season. It’s a terrible mark if I’m being honest. Amongst batters with 400 plate appearances last season, there were 203 men, Diaz ranked 202nd. That’s right. Only one player in baseball, Matt Holliday, had a lower line drive rate. The mark in the second half was 12.9. That’s scary bad for Diaz. In fact, it’s distressing, injury or not (Diaz missed 40 games last season with a thumb injury causing him to miss all of August and part of September).
Though he hit .317 against righties, he was a league average performer against lefties with a .256 batting average against. He had a lot more success against lefties in the minors so perhaps we’re talking a sample size issue?
It’s random, admittedly to do the first/second half thing, but Diaz his .315 in the first half and .257 in the second half.
The guy is a “pull” hitter. Last season his pull rate was 46.3 percent. The league average was 39.7 percent.
He did avoid the strikeout with just 60 in 404 at-bats, so at least he put the ball in play consistently.
The totality of that data does not suggest that Diaz is a .300 hitter.
HOME RUNS
Diaz hit 17 homers last season. Everyone one of them was to left or left centerfield. All of them.
Diaz had an average distance of 401.4 feet per homer with an average speed off the bat of 104.5 mph. The National League average last season was 401.0 and 103.8 mph.
Diaz had a 38.9 percent fly ball ratio, a few percentage points above the league average of 34.6 percent in 2017.
Diaz posted a 12.6 percent HR/FB ratio last season. The league average last season was 12.8 percent.
Diaz hit only three homers in 117 at-bats against lefties.
All of that suggests he’s about the homer hitter we saw last season.
RUNS BATTED IN
As you will read about below, it sounds like Diaz will bat second. That’s not going to help his outlook in this category a year after he drove in 65 runs over 111 games. Diaz was very effective last season with runners on base posting a .869 OPS. He was even better with runners in scoring position (1.080 OPS). Talented or not, it’s unlikely that he will repeat those numbers, at least the one with RISP, in the coming campaign.
RUNS SCORED
Diaz scored 71 times last season, and batting second (more below), combined with a full season of health, should allow him to blow past that total this season. That’s not saying much.
Diaz posted a strong .369 OBP last season as he walked 41 times in 111 games. A word of caution though. His 8.9 percent walk rate was barely better than the league’s 8.2 percent rate last season. The result of that league average rate is a somewhat deceiving on-base percentage. Diaz cleared his batting average by just .069 points last season. That means if he hits .275 this season, and keeps that pace, that his OBP would drop to .344. That’s still a fine number, but it’s also a good deal off the pace he set last season.
STOLEN BASES
He stole only four bases last season while being caught four times. Terrible.
He shouldn’t be expected to better than mark appreciably this season.
PLAYING TIME
Diaz didn’t have a good reputation defensively, and he went out and made nine errors his first 36 games last season to solidify that rep. He cleaned that up and eventually made 16 errors in 107 outings at shortstop, the position he is slated to play again this season.
Signs suggest that Diaz will bat second this season behind newly acquired Dexter Folwer and in front of Matt Carpenter. Hard to be in a much better spot than that.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Diaz.
| Overall | Position Rank |
150.7 | 9th | |
137.1 | 10th |
CONCLUSION
Diaz isn’t an elite fantasy option. He’s not going to steal bases, doesn’t possesses upper end power, and is likely to see a batting average pull back. That said, his draft day cost is simply too high when you can wait 100 picks at a draft and grab Brandon Crawford, Didi Gregorius or Asdrubal Cabrera.
10-Team Mixed: He’s being drafted as a starter at short in this setup. I wouldn’t look at him as anything other than a fallback middle infield option here. Of course, his ADP won’t allow that to happen.
12-Team Mixed: Diaz isn’t likely to fail. I also don’t see reason for optimism for growth, except in the runs scored column.
15-Team Mixed: The lack of speed means his batting average better hold. He’s a passable starting shortstop here, but with his cost...
NL-Only League: A stable spot in the lineup, a good spot in the batting order, and a premium position means that Diaz is a nice target in this format. He recently went for $20 in the 2017 NL LABR Draft, still that’s a price I’m not comfortable with.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).