The Tout Wars weekend in New York is the unofficial end to the fantasy baseball draft season each year. Early in the month the industry heads to Arizona for LABR before heading east to New York toward the end of March to put a pretty little bow on the draft campaign. Good times were had by all over the weekend. There were stories, remembrances shared, even a few baseball drafts as well as the famous Foley’s pickle shots (which I’m totally going to try and make part of my normal routine at home). Good times indeed.
Of the many drafts over the weekend, I was once again tasked with battling the best of the best in the 15-team mixed league auction. Before I get to the strange plan that I ended up deploying, let’s get to the participants and the rules.
* Special thanks to the board members (Jeff Erickson, Peter Kreutzer, Lawr Michaels and Ron Shandler).
PARTICIPANTS
Here are the 14 other teams that were involved in the festivities besides yours truly.
2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction
Zach Steinhorn 2016 Mixed Auction Champion
Jeff Zimmerman 2016 H2H Champion, Transfer from H2H
Fred Zinkie 2011, 2013, 2015 Mixed Auction Champion
Brent Hershey Transfer from H2H
Joe Pisapia
Bret Sayre 2015 Tout X Champion
Scott Pianowski
Ron Shandler 1998/2000 AL Champ. 1998 NL Champ, Transfer from AL
Ray Flowers
Scott Swanay
Tim Heaney
Al Melchior
Scott Engel
Gene McCaffrey 2001 NL Champion
Derek VanRiper 2014 Mixed Auction Champion
SETUP
Mixed League
15-teams
$260 auction for 23 starters: 14 hitters, nine pitchers
six bench spots (rostered by a snake draft)
5x5 scoring (we replace batting average with on-base percentage)
*We use 15 games, not 20, to be eligible at a position.
MY ROSTER
* Number in parenthesis is the $ amount spent.
C: J.T. Realmuto ($12), Francisco Cervelli (3)
1B: Josh Bell (6)
2B: Jason Kipnis (6)
3B: Evan Longoria (19)
SS: Xander Bogaerts (25)
MI: Devon Travis (3)
CI: Javier Baez (8)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (26), Christian Yelich (27), Gregory Polanco (22), David Dahl (7), Jason Heyward (3)
UTIL: Brandon Drury (3)
PITCHERS: Craig Kimbrel ($15), Andrew Miller (10), Julio Teheran (18), Marcus Stroman (13), Aaron Nola (9)¸ Aaron Sanchez (9), Taijuan Walker (5)¸Sonny Gray (2), Nate Jones (9)
RESERVES: Brandon Kintzler, Lewis Brinson, Hector Rondon, Corey Knebel, Charlie Tillson, Joey Gallo
HOW THE DRAFT WENT
Super different that I had planned.
I wanted to, as I did in AL LABR, be a bit more aggressive, especially on offense. I often go bargain hunting as my default in auctions, but this season I said to myself that I was going to get the players I wanted, even if they were expensive. That is until the first couple of rounds of the auction were completed Saturday.
Players were going for $50, and what do I say to you all? I would never spend $50 on a player, so I was out on Michael Trout and Paul Goldschmidt. That’s fine. Alas, it seemed like everyone was going for $40+ in the early going. Then everyone was going for $35 plus. And it’s not just that the players were going for cost, it’s that they were all (in my opinion) going for handfuls of dollars above what I deemed reasonable. So, I had to patiently wait, which is admittedly an awkward feeling when you have one or two guys while other teams all have six, eight, 10 guys. It takes a good deal of guts and patience to just wait.
By waiting I had to change things up a bit. I decided that going back to my normal M.O. of value drafting would be beneficial in this particular league. Reason being was that everyone was spending so big early that with patietnce there would have to be bargains, or at least reasonably priced players… if I could just how patience.
I think it happened.
I grabbed Realmuto for $12. I felt really good about that get. I added Cervelli later. Remember it’s an OBP league and that .370 mark is going to come in handy.
Per usual this season, I ended up without a top end first baseman. Not really a plan per se, but as I’m building strength elsewhere I seemingly always end up with an average option at first. Bell fits there. I’m not expecting greatness, but he certainly knows ow to take a walk, his OBP should be top-10 at the position, and his knee appears fully healed.
Then it got interesting.
Kipnis is a $15 player. He cost me $6 because of the shoulder. Let’s say he misses a month. Wouldn’t that make him an $11-12 guy then? Seems like a great value to me, so I pounced when the bidding stalled. Interestingly, the guy I often compare him to, Travis, also ended up on the club. He was a player that I identified about mid-draft as someone who was going to end up on my squad. Opening Day may or may not happen with the oft injured one (currently his knee), but when a guy basically goes .300-20-80-80 his first 163 games he’s clearly worth way more than what I paid. Strange how everyone loves young players but that love rarely seems to extend to Travis.
Bogaerts seems to be a player a few are souring on. Don’t know why that should happen.
Longoria was on my squad last year, though I believe the cost then was a mere $13. Longo never misses games, he’s Mr. 155 Games at this point, and I needed that with my health concerns. Later on Anthony Rendon went for $15. I would have preferred Rendon at that cost, but hey, you never know how an action is going to play out.
Baez is ending up on a lot of my squads. I tossed him out for $8 and didn’t get a single bid. I was surprised by that. However, I was willing to go dollars more than $8 in my quest to roster him, so I’m totally fine with him when not another bid was tossed out. His OBP won’t be good, but there is a scenario in which he goes 20/20 this season. Remember too that Baez qualifies at second, shortstop and third, so he will be able to move around to help with my up the middle early season injury process.
Folks might think 26 is too much for McCutchen. I obviously disagree, to an extent. I will say his cost was a few dollars above my target price, but it wasn’t anything crazy. See his Player Profile to explain why you shouldn’t be as concerned as so many appear to be. His teammate, Polanco ended up on my squad at a reasonable price. Obviously if his shoulder issue significant I’m in big trouble. The third man in my trio of terror in the outfield is Christian Yelich. Pretty sure everyone knows I’m a fan of his at this point. If this draft was a month ago Dahl would have gone for at least $10 more than I paid. He’s a strong talent, calls Coors home, and has a nice overall game. Now if his back can just cooperate. Meanwhile, maybe I’m a sucker, but $3 for Heyward and his new swing… I’m in.
Finally, I grabbed Drury, another player that I targeted (see his Player Profile). Drury qualifies at third base and the outfield, and he’s going to pick up second base early on. He and Baez give me tremendous flexibility on the infield, something I need with the health risks.
In the reserves I took a shot on Tillson for the speed component knowing full well that the D.L. is happening at the start. I can basically just sit on him while adding someone else off waivers. This gives me a chance at striking early gold with somebody which is never a bad thing. In essence, I got Tillson for free, playing that lottery ticket, while I’ll grab another to slot him on the disabled list.
Please Rangers, trade Joey Gallo. Please. He will pull an Adam Duvall this season if given a chance.
Let’s talk pitching.
All Kimbrel does is save 30 games and strikeout batters at a massive clip. I’ll take that.
Miller is an even better pitcher that Kimbrel, and he should bring plenty of value in virtually all the columns. He was on all my teams, including Tout, last year.
Kintzler in the reserve rounds was crazy value. I was so hoping it would happen (I wanted he oar Tyler Glasnow with my first pick, and when Scott Swanay took Glasnow the pick before me, my mind was selection became clear). He’s not overly skilled, but he is the Twins closer. I also grabbed Rondon who I believe would take over if/when Wade Davis’ arm goes out. Finally, Knebel could end up closing this season. He’s got a big arm and we all aren’t convinced that Neftali Feliz is the answer for the Brewers, right? Love this bullpen group.
The starters are money too.
Julio Teheran is nearly always underrated. See his Player Profile. The guy is just really good.
Stroman is a potential breakout candidate this season. Healthy, owner of four pitches and the best ground ball rate in the game. He also brought nearly a punchout per inning in the second half last season. See a recent report.
Nola is my call for breakout arm of the year. As long as his arm is healthy, and it has looked that way this spring… I’m telling you there’s a chance. See his Player Profile.
Sanchez is someone I’ve taken a slightly negative tone with (see his Player Profile). One of the main reasons is that he’s being drafted at a cost that is simply too high. I don’t believe $9 is too much at all. In fact, I was rather surprised he didn’t go for a good deal more. That cost was at least partially because folks were running out of funds allowing me to find that mid-level sweet spot I thought I might once the bullets were flying early.
Walker is a potential breakout option too. He has to keep the ball in the yard, and stay healthy, but he’s another young/power arm. See his Player Profile.
So let me explain the $9 on Jones that seems to be generating some discussion.
1 – I had four players targeted to round out my offense: Heyward, Drury, Travis and Randal Grichuk. I was able to buy three of them for $3 each. I thought I might have to spend $15 to get three of the four, but I spent just $9. So I miscalculated leaving me extra money in the end. Still, I got the guys I wanted, and at a significant discount. The point is I got my targets, cost or not, cause once the games begin having the guys is all that really matters.
2 – I chose to spend $9 on Jones because it was all I had left. Here’s why. If a player is hurt, you can release him to waivers and then reclaim his cost in FAAB money. Maybe I could have got Jones for $5 and looked smarter by not spending $9, but I was better off just bidding full price on Jones just in case he suffers a big-time injury.
3 – A regret given how it turned out. I’m a big fan of Jameson Taillon (see his Player Profile). He came up for bid later in the draft, and I pushed the price to $8. When a $9 bid was called out, I stopped bidding. In retrospect, given how cheap Drury/Heyward/Travis went, I could have easily gone a few dollars more on Taillon. If I would have done that my staff who have been, well, pretty much perfect given how I want to play things. As it turned out I settled for Walker, who I also really like, at just $5. Again, not a mistake per se, but a regret. Watch Taillon win the Cy Young this season.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Embrace risk.
Build a team of young vets.
Get my targets on the bump.
I love this pitching staff. Not only do I have three of my top targets this season – Stroman, Nola, Teheran – but I’ve also got the power arm of Sanchez. In the pen I have Kimbrel and Kintzler for saves, Miller for everything, and Rondon and Knebel just in case. I also can’t help but think the offense has oodles of potential. Of course, there is the massive health risk that I took on, and that will likely be the key to my season. Do my currently injured players disappoint all year, or do they quickly become the players that we all know they can be? Pretty easy to see which decisions made on draft day lead to a winning or failing season.
