2017 Fantasy Baseball SP Streamers: Week 5

10-12 Team Leagues

Antonio Senzatela (COL): The Rockies rookie gets a road start against the Padres on Wednesday, who rank in the bottom 10 offensively as a team so far this season. The road matchup certainly helps Senzatela as well considering he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, and he’s prone to giving up the long ball. What helps this young pitcher is the fact that Petco Park hasn’t been a big HR park (it ranks 24th in terms of HR’s this year). So this is a nice spot for Senzatela who is owned in less than half of 10-12 team leagues. His fastball velocity is worth keeping an eye on as it’s dropped a little bit over his last couple starts so it would be a big disappointment if fatigue is setting in on the young rookie, but he’s still maintaining good velocity separation between his fastball and changeup.

Alex Cobb (TB): Cobb hasn’t been “lights out” this year by any means, but if you need an innings eater in Week 5 then Cobb is your guy. Cobb gets two starts next week (on the road in Miami and at home against Toronto). Obviously the 2nd start is more appealing and it’s a tasty matchup if you need an end-of-the-week Hail Mary to salvage your matchup. Toronto still ranks in the Bottom 5 in terms of runs scored, AVG., and OBP. Cobb has actually been pitching fairly well. He pitches to contact so he’ll give up his share of hits, but the key to Cobb is his changeup. He doesn’t have great velocity separation from his fastball (roughly a 5mph difference), but the changeup induces more soft and medium contact than hard contact, which is when he’s prone to giving up home runs. Check out the table below of his last two starts:

As previously mentioned, if you want to hold off on the start against the Marlins that’s fine, but his May 7th start against Toronto is an excellent spot for Cobb.

Trevor Bauer (CLE): Bauer is another 2-start pitcher next week drawing starts against Detroit and Kansas City. Like Cobb, this breakdown will focus on Bauer’s second start, which will be Saturday May 6th. Bauer hasn’t been great by any means to start the year. In 3 of his 4 starts he’s given up at least 4 earned runs. He carries a 6.26 ERA, which will make your eyes bleed, but he does have a 4.31 FIP. That’s not great, but it suggests he’s been the victim of some tough luck. His 2nd start against Kansas City could prove to be a hidden gem and this is solely based off the fact that Kansas City’s offense is dreadful. Here are some categories where the Royals offense ranks at the very bottom. That’s right, dead last. Not Bottom 10, or Bottom 5. Here we go:

• Runs
• Hits
• Total Bases
• Batting Average
• On-Base Percentage
• Slugging Percentage (For those of you keeping score at home, that also means they're dead least in OPS as well)

What could possibly make this even better? Well the start comes in Kauffman Stadium and that’s a pitcher’s fantasy right there. Kauffman is Bottom 3 in terms of Runs and HR’s for offenses. This is a nice spot for Bauer to help some fantasy owners steal a victory late next week.

Amir Garrett (CIN): This is a guy who goes out and gets lit up by a vaunted Milwaukee lineup and he’s dropped in almost 10-15% of leagues. He may not be available in yours, but if he is go get him because he has a nice matchup in Week 5 against San Francisco. Garrett is still just a rookie. He’s going to have these growing pains, and the Brewers have a legitimate offense. It’s time to set realistic expectations for him: his K/9 will be somewhat modest. It’s blown out of proportion due to his 12-strikeout performance against Baltimore. But his K:BB ratio is somewhat legit. He does have pretty solid control and walked just 3 batters in 19.2 innings of work prior to the Milwaukee start. He gets a start against the Cardinals this weekend before his Week 5 matchup against San Francisco. He’s young and he’ll have his up’s and down’s, but he’s in a nice spot to kick off the month of May.

Joe Ross (WSH): Ross’s start on Sunday April 30th will be worth monitoring because he’s currently carrying 6.17 ERA, but a lot of that damage came in a road start at Coors Field. Coors is capable of making everyone look bad. His velocity will be worth monitoring against the Mets because against the Rockies his velocity was down almost 2 mph from his first start. Ross suffered from a hard contact rate of almost 57.9% at Coors so a Week 5 road matchup against Philly is welcomed with open arms. Look for him to get back on track over his next two starts as he could also get more strikeouts and a win with the offensive support of the loaded Nats lineup.

Deeper League Options

Josh Tomlin (CLE): See Trevor Bauer. Tomlin gets a fantastic Week 5 matchup on the road in Kansas City. All those offensive statistics for the Royals that were mentioned previously in Bauer’s section can be applied here. The struggle is real for the Royals. Tomlin is under 20% owned on almost every site so he could even be streamed in shallower leagues. In his first two starts he pitched 6.1 innings and gave up 13 earned runs. In his last two starts he’s given up 6 earned runs over 12 innings pitched. A 4.50 ERA is nothing to write home about, but his 1.67 FIP suggests he’s actually been better than his ERA gives him credit for. He doesn’t have overpowering pitches. In fact, there’s maybe 3-4 mph of velocity separation amongst all of his pitches. So he’s not a great season-long candidate, but against the Royals he’s in a great spot as a deep league streamer.

Hyun-Jin Ryu/Brandon McCarthy (LAD): So this is tough because Ryu is 0-4 to start the season. He boasted a 5.87 ERA after 3 starts (against the Cubs and twice against the Rockies) and he gave up 6 home runs in that span. He did bounce back nicely in his last start on the road against the Giants. He gave up 1 earned run in 6 innings of work. He also gave up 5 hits and 1 walk. His next start against San Diego parallels the Giants matchup nicely. It’s on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and comes against a relatively weak offense. The problem is that Ryu may not get the start next week due to his prior struggles, but mostly because the Dodgers are working Julio Urias into the rotation. So it appears Ryu could be sacrificed and he may not get the start against the Padres. The start would likely go to Brandon McCarthy who isn’t available in deeper leagues, but is available in some 10-12 team leagues. If Ryu does earn the start against San Diego then pick him up and play him.

Tyler Chatwood (COL): “Tyler Chatwood’s pitching in Petco next week.” That’s some serious dirty talk for fantasy baseball players. Everyone knows about the ballpark factors with Petco Park. It’s pitcher friendly and the Padres are one of the worst offensive teams in the league. They’re 8th in home runs, but they’re closer to the bottom in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage (despite the home runs). Here’s an updated table with his home/road splits:

Chatwood also has a home start against Arizona late in Week 5 so it’s safe to say you can drop him after his start against San Diego. Remember these words: Death. Taxes. Chatwood on the road.

Bartolo Colon (ATL): This is a slightly more risky play. A fourth streaming option for deeper leagues is being included because of the uncertainty surrounding Ryu’s start. Colon has struggled on the road this season. In 22 innings of work he’s touting a .326 opponent batting average, .562 slugging percentage, and a .394 wOBA. His 6.95 ERA is also pretty glaring, but luckily his Week 5 matchup comes at home. And in a very small sample size (1 start) at home against San Diego he gave up a solo home run and a walk. That was it. So obviously there’s some regression in store as Sun Trust Park is projecting as a moderate ballpark for hitters. But he’s going against a floundering Mets offense that will be without Yoenis Cespedes. The Mets have lost 6 of their last 7 (at the time of this writing) so this could prove to be a valuable streaming option in deeper formats.