2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

I hate the term “sleeper.” It’s more played out than tie-dye or Harry Potter movies. There are no sleepers anymore. With sites like Fantasy Alarm, radio channels like SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87), there is simply too much information available to really talk about sleepers (in order to really talk about sleepers we would have to talk about players outside the top-300 players on a draft board, and in most leagues those players aren’t even rostered). So instead, the following piece will discuss players that are undervalued – guys who have a low draft day cost that should outperform their cost.

CATCHER: Matt Wieters

Seems to always be my guy. In some mixed leagues he will be drafted as a catcher one, in others a catcher two. I routinely draft Wieters, I tell you all to do the same, and for most of the last three years that’s been the wrong call. Finally recovered from Tommy John surgery, Wieters had 17 homers and 66 RBI last season in 124 games making him one of just six catchers to reach both of those numbers. Per 124 games for his career he’s averaged 16 homers and 61 RBI. That level is obviously who he is. If he can get back to the form that allowed him to play at least 130 games each season from 2010 to 2013, then a run to his first season of 20-75 is totally doable (his last two seasons of more than 125 games both resulted in 20 homers and 75 RBI). I’m keeping the faith with the switch hitter, even though he never developed into the next star behind the dish.

FIRST BASE: Justin Bour

It’s tough to find a fella at first base to really point out, there are so many strong options at the position, so let’s take a “chalk” look and suggest Bour. Justin hit 15 homers with 51 RBI in 90 games last season, a year after posting a 23-73 set of numbers. Bour can’t hit lefties well enough to even be considered a “hitter” against them (.223/.273/.291), and he can be pitched to as well. Still, for a man with his power a 20.7 percent K-rate is really solid, and it’s clear that when a pitcher makes a mistake he can make them pay (19.3 HR/FB rate for his young career). I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not a huge fan, Bour profiles as Kendrys Morales at the top end, but perhaps you can sneak him past your league mates late in a draft.

SECOND BASE: Joe Panik

Panik hit .305 as a rookie with a single homer in 2014. In 2015 he appeared in just 100 games as he dealt with lower back discomfort that cost him 54 days on the shelf. He was a wonderfully cheap depth option when on the field though hitting .312 with eight homers. He posted a .378 OBP with a .833 OPS as well, and those are All-Star caliber numbers. Last season he appeared in 127 games as he missed a good deal of time with a concussion. Wrapped around the concussion was some up and down work. Panik had a career best 10 homers, 62 RBI and 67 runs scored. He also stole five bases after swiping just three the first two seasons. Alas, his average dipped to .239 and he posted a .315 OBP, a year after he hit .312. Add it all up and per 150 games Panik has averaged a season of .280-10-59-79-3. That’s not a great season by any means, and I’m not predicting greatness in 2017 either. At the same point, I see little reason to think that his average couldn’t better the .280 mark he owns for his career, and that makes a .285-10-60-80 season possible. Know how many second sackers hit those four marks last season? The answer is seven: LeMahieu, Murphy, Altuve, Segura, Pedroia, Cano and Kinsler. Panik won’t cost anything allowing you to focus your resources in other spots. He won’t hurt you at all.

THIRD BASE: Maikel Franco

It’s rare to have a player listed who has been successful as Franco has been in two seasons. Why is he listed here? Because folks expectations last year were simply far too high, so when Franco went out and had a solid year, instead of an impressive one, people filed away Franco as a bit of a disappointment. That’s simply not accurate. Franco had 25 homers, the same total as Daniel Murphy. Franco had 88 RBI, three more than Anthony Rendon. When a third sacker has 25 homers and 88 RBI in his first full season why are folks disappointed? Look in the mirror folks. That’s on you. Truth is, Franco was a nearly identical performer to his rookie season. Here are the numbers per at-bat.

The run pace was obviously down, but the HR/RBI pace was virtually identical. The biggest issue is that folks expected Franco to go .280-30-100 last year and he didn’t. Given his overall game it is reasonable to expect the counting category numbers to improve slightly with his batting average moving closer to his .280 mark of 2015 than his .255 mark of 2017. He will be undervalued at the hot corer.

SHORTSTOP: Jose Peraza

Sources will likely tout Peraza frequently this spring, and they should. A dynamic talent with oodles of speed, he swiped 21 bases last season while only appearing in 72 games. Peraza was also caught 10 times, a rate that he will have to reduce moving forward, but 31 attempts in 72 games is an elite level of running for the modern-day game (note that he stole 64 and 60 bases in back to back seasons in 2013 and 2014 even though he appeared in just 114 and 110 games). Is he a .324 hitter? Nah. Even with all his speed he’s not holding on to a .361 BABIP, or that 27.5 percent line drive rate, and that total of seven walks in 256 plate appearances is simply dreadful. Still, he could be the “new” Elvis Andrus with even more stolen base upside, so make sure you don’t sleep on Peraza who should play every day from day one this season.

OUTFIELD: Domingo Santana

Last year I said I had to have this guy in the Draft Guide, so why not go with him again this year? I know, such brilliant analysis, right? Santana is just 24 years old. He’s a big fella, 6’5”, 220 lbs, and he’s slotted to play daily. Limited to just 77 games last season due to a wonky elbow, Santana failed to match my expectations though it should be noted that if he had kept his pace over 150 games he would have hit 22 homers with a .792 OPS. Danny Valencia went 17 and .792 last year while Marcell Ozuna went 23 and .773. Also note that Santana, who strikes out a ton which will limit his batting average (think Carlos Santana), posted a .345 OBP last season. Jackie Bradley Jr. was at .349 last year. Wil Myers was at .336. Domingo isn’t going nuclear in 2017, but if he can stay healthy he certainly has a shot to be at least a fifth outfielder in mixed leagues. 

OUTFIELD: Jason Heyward

The guy is panty waste. We all know it. So why is he here on this list? Because everyone knows he’s as useful as a pot of coffee if you have already swigged three cans of Blueberry Red Bull (which is delicious by the way). That’s the point though. No one is looking at Heyward anymore meaning he’s a potentially great return on investment option. Some facts. (1) Heyward is just 27 years old. He is just entering the age where physical talent and baseball maturity merge. (2) His career best numbers in the 5x5 numbers would equate to a .293-27-82-93-23. That’s a stupendous season is it not? (3) Prior to 2016, Heyward had posted an OBP of .349, .351 and .359 the previous three years. His career mark is also .346. The following players failed to reach .346 last season: Andrew McCutchen .336, Chris Davis .332, Gregory Polanco .323, Justin Upton .310 and Adam Jones .306 to name just a few. At the cost, which will be minimal at best, the talent of Heyward is well worth the investment.

OUTFIELD: Carlos Gomez

Just like Heyward, people have moved on from Gomez. Totally understandable after two down seasons. Still, how about this? The last two seasons Gomez has averaged 13 homers and 18 steals. That’s two and two from back-to-back 15/20 seasons. Note that he appeared in 115 and 118 games that last two campaigns. If he maintained the pace he posted, and played 130 games, he would have gone 15/20 both times out. How many outfielders went 15/20 last season? Try eight: Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond, Keon Broxton, Leonys Martin, Mookie Betts, Melvin Upton, Wil Myers and Mike Trout. That’s it. Note that Gomez also found his “game” in 33 outings with the Rangers hitting .284 with eight homers and five steals. It’s really all about health. If the 31 year old outfielder has it, a 15/20 season, at a greatly reduced price, is totally doable.

PITCHER: Wei-Yin Chen

He won’t be 32 until July so he shouldn’t be washed up. There is concern with the lefty who failed to make 25 starts (23 totally 123.1 innings), but after such a terrible season in Miami (5-5, 4.96 ERA) one would have to think that he won’t even be drafted in the majority of mixed leagues. But I tell ya what, he really didn’t pitch any differently in 2016 than he did in 2014-15. Seriously. Check out the numbers.

Really, other than the massive jump in the ERA rate, this was the “normal” Chen. The odds are high that he will become that guy again if one simple thing changes – his homer rate. He was saddled with at 14.9 percent HR/FB ratio, the worst of his career leading to a massive 1.61 HR/9 mark. He often gives up the big fly, but if the number recedes to 1.29, his career rate, then the ERA will certainly come way down in ’17. He’s nothing other than a bench grab in mixed leagues, he might even be on waivers after the draft, but keep a close eye on how does early in the year.

PITCHER: Aaron Nola

Nola suffered a UCL sprain and a low-grade flexor sprain in his elbow, and that cut his season short (20 starts and 111 innings). Certainly there is some risk here, if the UCL goes we’re talking Tommy John surgery, but everyone involved believes that Nola’s elbow should be 100 percent for the start of the season. Over his first 12 starts last season he was ace-like with a 2.65 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, a 9.81 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 rate. Can’t be predicting that level of success of course, but that level of success demonstrates that Nola might be undervalued heading into 2017. Even with his horrible finish he still struck out 9.81 batters per nine with a 2.35 BB/9 rate and a 2.23 GB/FB ratio. Amongst hurlers who tossed 100-innings last season, here are the facts. Only 18 men struck out 9.81 batters per nine. Of those only 11 had a BB/9 rate under 3.00. Of that 11 only six posted a walk rate of under 2.40 per nine. Of those six only one also posted a GB/FB ratio of 2.20 or higher. Add it all up and Nola was the only arm in baseball who had a 9.81 K/9, 2.40 BB/9 and 2.20 GB/FB ratio who also threw 100-innings. Chew on that for a bit.

PITCHER: Carlos Rodon

You will probably see this guy’s name on lists all over the industry this year, so this is a little “chalk.” But, here is my reasoning. Rodon is a 24 year old lefty who throws a strong heater 62 percent of the time. He’s really a two-pitch pitcher as he also thrown his slider 28 percent. He greatly improved his changeup success last year as his rookie OPS on the pitch was .931, a ghastly number, while the mark fell to .774 in year two. A bit odd give that his ground ball rate on the pitch dipped 11 percent while his swinging strike percentage also went down. If he can improve that pitch, just a bit, he could really take off. Over his last 11 outings he allowed six earned runs twice, but in the other nine outings it was three earned runs or less every time on his way to a 3.11 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, a 9.45 K/9 and a 2.70 BB/9. That last number is very heartening, as is the 2.95 BB/9 rate he posted for the season, well below the pathetic 4.59 BB/9 rate he had as a rookie. Keep the walks down young man and the success will follow.