Prospects are a commodity. We learn this again and again this time of year. Those who have them can make blockbuster trades and those who don’t often get left blowing in the breeze in trade discussions. This week has seen three big trades go down that all involved prospects and I am here to give you my take on which ones will pan out and who’s getting taken for a ride.
On Sunday, the A’s and Nationals reached a deal that sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to D.C. for Blake Treinen and two prospects in Sheldon Neuse and Jesus Luzardo. Clearly the major league talents are established bullpen arms including a couple of former closers, but it’s the two prospects in the deal that are most interesting.
Neuse is an INF prospect (mainly at 3B) who was a SS and pitcher in college and was ranked number-six in the Nats system before the trade. Now the 11th-ranked A’s prospect, he will likely head to either Beliot (A) or Stockton (A-Advanced) for Oakland. While in Hagerstown for Washington, he played 77 games and posted a .291/.349/.469 line with a .347 BABIP, .367 wOBA, nine dingers, 51 RBI, 40 runs, and 12 steals. He grades out as a 50-Hit, 50-Power, 45-Run guy who has the arm and soft hands to stick at the hot corner long term, but won’t be a stand out bat.
Jesus Luzardo is a LHP who ranked 10th in the Nats farm system and is now 15th in Oakland’s. He was viewed as one of the top high school lefties in the 2016 draft before a March 2016 elbow injury derailed his stock to the third round where the Nationals took him. Luzardo has just started pitching again, three starts under his belt, but in that small sample he has been very productive. In that span he’s posted a 1.32 ERA, 2.39 FIP, 2.04 xFIP, 9.88 K/9 while walking no one in his 13.2 innings pitched. The 19-year-old southpaw features a nice 93-97 mph fastball with sink, a curve he can change speeds with and a plus-change that plays nicely off the fastball. He’s got three years of development in the minors ahead of him but projects as a number-3 starter in a major league rotation.
The middle of the big deals of the week happened early on Tuesday evening between the Diamondbacks and the Tigers. J.D. Martinez is headed to the desert while the Tigers got three prospects in Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara, and Jose King back in return.
Lugo is the “biggest” get in the deal as the D-backs 4th-ranked prospect however he isn’t in the top-100 according to several outlets. He is mostly a third baseman at this point and in 88 games this season at Double-A Jackson, Lugo is hitting .282/.325/.428 with a .310 BABIP and .342 wOBA, seven homers, 43 RBI, 40 runs, and one steal. He projects as a defensive hot corner minder that has so-so pop but not much more as his best season in the minors saw him hit 17 homers in 127 games between A+ and AA.
Sergio Alcantara is a shortstop prospect in the mold of Jose Iglesias. He is a defensive wizard but possesses no stand out hit tool. In 88 games at Class A-Advanced this season, he’s hitting .279/.344/.362 with three homers, 44 runs, 28 RBI, and 11 steals. There is no power to speak of and his Hit and Run tools are below MLB-average on the 20-80 scale. He may be up in 2019 but won’t contribute to your fantasy roster.
Jose King is the third prospect in the deal who has spent the last season and change in rookie ball. He is just 18 years old, which makes him a long ways off from the big club right now. King has speed, 21 steals in 61 games a year ago, but that’s about it. He is a prototypical leadoff style defensive middle infielder.
As I was starting to right this piece, a third blockbuster unfolded between the Yankees and White Sox that saw Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle go to New York for Blake Rutherford, Ian Clarkin,Tito Polo, and Tyler Clippard.
Rutherford is a highly-touted outfield prospect who slots in as the sixth-ranked prospect in Chicago, but gives them another top-30 guy in baseball. He projects to be a middle of the order, corner outfielder when all is said and done, though that’s likely not until 2020. In 71 games at A-ball this year he is hitting .281/.342/.391 with a .341 BABIP and .335 wOBA. Two homers, 41 runs, 30 RBI, and nine RBI comprise the rest of the stat line. Rutherford, Eloy Jimenez, and Luis Robert give the Pale Hose a serious group of outfield prospects for 2020 call-ups.
Clarkin was the third of three first-round picks for the Yankees in 2013 and since has battled with injuries that held him to just 178 innings through the first four season of his career. The lefty has four offerings, none of them a true plus pitch, between his 90-93 fastball, a curveball that doesn’t break quite as much as a few years ago, a changeup that is arguably his best offering, and a slider that’s still being worked on. Now that he is finally healthy, he can work on things more effectively but is still just in A-Advanced at the moment. Clarkin is not a big strikeout guy with his K/9 rate consistently between 6.50-7.20 but does locate well and keeps his ERA down in the low-mid 3.00 range, along with his FIP and xFIP. The 22-year-old southpaw figures to be a mid- to back-end rotation piece in the majors.
Tito Polo, while a fun name to say, is the last prospect involved in the seven-player deal. He is a 22-year-old outfielder with some good wheels, but he hasn’t advanced in system very far, only playing 14 games at Double-A or higher, and that was this season. Polo is a free swinger type who doesn’t produce a lot of hard contact but enough to get on base. In 2017 he has played 74 games hitting .307 with five homers, 46 runs, 37 RBI, and 27 steals. Polo, despite the nice season, profiles as a fourth outfielder who can get you steals off the bench but play a decent field on a starters off-day.