30 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’3”, 215 lbs
Position: Starting Pitcher
THE NUMBERS
| LEVEL | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | IP |
2009 | MLB | 0-4 | 8.87 | 2.28 | 4.43 | 4.43 | 22.1 |
2010 | MLB | 2-2 | 3.83 | 1.37 | 7.66 | 2.82 | 44.2 |
2011 | MLB | 8-9 | 4.62 | 1.36 | 6.14 | 2.89 | 124.2 |
2012 | MLB | DNP |
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2013 | MLB | 1-4 | 6.75 | 1.76 | 5.79 | 3.47 | 46.2 |
2014 | MLB | 8-7 | 2.55 | 0.99 | 9.40 | 1.95 | 134 |
2015 | MLB | 14-12 | 3.63 | 1.07 | 10.58 | 2.11 | 183.2 |
2016 | MLB | 11-8 | 3.32 | 1.15 | 9.23 | 2.09 | 146.1 |
Career |
| 44-46 | 3.92 | 1.23 | 8.59 | 2.42 | 702.1 |
Carrasco had an elbow issue that cost him 54 games in 2011. He had Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2012 season as a result.
THE SKILLS
One word: elite.
Carlos Carrasco has the skills that make your mouth water, that is if you’re into that kinda thing of course. Let’s play the highlights.
For his career, Carrasco has an 8.59 K/9 rate. The last three seasons the mark is an elite 9.81 per nine.
For his career, Carrasco has a 2.42 BB/9 rate. The last three seasons the mark is an elite 2.06 per nine.
For his career, Carrasco has a 3.55 K/BB ratio. The last three seasons the mark is 4.77.
For his career, Carrasco has a 1.68 GB/FB ratio. The last three seasons the mark is 1.71.
Here are Carrasco’s ranks the last three seasons in all four categories (minimum 450 innings pitched).
| 2014-16 |
K/9 | 6th |
BB/9 | 16th |
K/BB | 10th |
GB/FB | 11th |
Like I wrote, elite. The skills are all top shelf.
I say it all the time. I want strikeouts, no walks, and lots of grounders. That’s exactly the type of pitcher that Carrasco is.
Some slight concerns...
The GB/FB ratio last season of 1.54 was a four-year low.
The 20.0 percent line drive rate last season was a three-year high.
The 48.5 percent ground ball rate was a six-year low.
The 16.3 HR/FB ratio last season was a six-year high.
His hard hit ball rate of 36.4 percent was a six-year high and miles from the 30.2 percent rate he owns for his career.
Somewhat concerning? OK, I can give you that, but the totality of everything suggests there really aren’t any weaknesses with the skills, even at the slightly lower levels last season. #NothingWrongAtAll
A final note.
Check out these ERA marks.
| ERA | SIERA | xFIP |
2016 | 3.32 | 3.44 | 3.32 |
Career | 3.92 | 3.34 | 3.28 |
PLAYING TIME
Let talk innings, which is a huge part, maybe the only part, of concern with Carrasco. What follows are the innings pitched he has thrown, minors + majors, each season of his professional career.
| IP |
2006 | 159.1 |
2007 | 140 |
2008 | 153.1 |
2009 | 179.1 |
2010 | 195 |
2011 | 128.1 |
2012 | Zero |
2013 | 118 |
2014 | 134 |
2015 | 183.2 |
2016 | 150.1 |
*2012 – Tommy John surgery
So, in an 11-year professional career Carrasco has never thrown 200-onnings. In 11-years he has two seasons of 185-innings. Just three times in 11 seasons he has thrown 180-innings. He simply cannot stay healthy and rack up innings. It’s just not in his nature.
The last three seasons he’s failed to qualify for the ERA title twice, and in that time he’s averaged just 156 innings each season.
All of this is what makes it so tough to draft, and count on, Carrasco to really come through and meet expectations. He simply has proven that he cannot take the ball every five games all season long. That isn’t likely to change as he hits 30 years of age.
CONCLUSION
It’s up to you how you want to play it with Carrasco. Are you willing to pay the cost for the skills, and the cost is a top-20 selection at the starting pitcher spot, or are you afraid to take the chance early with the injury prone righty? With so many arms dealing with in injury concerns – Stephen Strasburg, Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Rich Hill etc. – maybe Carrasco isn’t as bad a grab early as you would initially think given the landscape of the position.
For more, check out where Carrasco is placed in the 2017 Player Rankings.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).