Joey Gallo, Third Base/Outfield, Texas Rangers
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 230 lbs.
Bats: Left
Throws: Right
2015 Minor League Stats (AA & AAA): 374 PA, .240/.342/.520, 23 HR, 64 RBIs
2015 Major League Stats: 123 PA, .204/.301/.417, 6 HR, 14 RBIs
When it comes to pure power, very few baseball players possess the type of brute strength that Joey Gallo does. He doesn’t just put the ball over the fence, he sends it on extended vacations. His pure physical brawniness is the type that can become legendary. Unfortunately, there is more to a professional baseball player than just power and, because of that, Gallo isn’t anywhere close to a complete prospect.
Diving right into the numbers is the best way to figure out how Gallo will translate as a full-time major league player. The pop that Gallo has in his bat is legitimately upper level. He has posted an ISO of .250 or higher at each stop he’s made in the minor leagues. In 2014 at High-A Myrtle Beach, Gallo sent 21 balls over the fence, posting a gaudy .413 ISO in the process. It’s virtually impossible for that number—or anything close to it—to translate the same way at the major league level, but it does show the pure raw power ability that Gallo has.
With a mountain of home runs, an overabundance of strikeouts usually goes hand in hand—and that is exactly what we get from Gallo. He strikes out at an alarming rate and it is a literal guarantee that he will never be able to hit for average in the major leagues. Gallo posted a 39.5 percent strikeout rate over 291 plate appearances at Double-A in 2014 and followed it up by posting the exact same number over 228 plate appearances at Triple-A last season. This is a number that is going to be extremely hard to overcome when Gallo reaches the majors on a full-time basis. The world’s most elite pitchers are going to expose the massive holes in his swing and Gallo will look bush league in the process.
With huge strikeout numbers, a terrible batting average usually tags along. Gallo owns a respectable .258 average over four minor league seasons, but 806 of his 1,377 at-bats came at stops from Rookie ball to High-A. The higher minor league levels have been an issue for Gallo, especially in Triple-A where he slashed .195/.301/.417 over 228 plate appearances in 2015.
While it’s clear that Gallo is a top prospect in the power department—the first class perks end there. If you look at a former Ranger, Chris Davis, you’ll see many similar traits of Joey Gallo: tons of homers, a low average, and an above average amount of walks. The biggest difference between the two is that Davis slashed .318/.374/.596 throughout his minor league career. After struggling early on with Texas—and plenty of stops back in the minors—Davis has settled in as a premier power bat for Baltimore. What’s worth noting is that Davis dominated in the minor leagues at every stop. Gallo simply, has not.
The best-case scenario for Gallo is being the second coming of Adam Dunn. Though Dunn was a total drain on average, he clubbed over 40 home runs in six straight seasons. His average during that period was just .249, but he also reached base at a .382 clip. These are monster numbers in an OBP league, but if in a league that counts average, these numbers aren’t so pretty.
What’s more likely for Gallo is something along the lines of Mark Reynolds minus the stolen bases early in his major league career. Reynolds came into the league with strong power numbers, but also struck out at a dangerous rate. He has managed to stay in the majors for nine seasons, but his overall numbers have been downright offensive.
It is going to be hard for Gallo to stick as a long-term full-time player unless he can get his strikeout rate down to a respectable level. Regrettably, that isn’t something that normally gets fixed. Gallo is likely to struggle with strikeouts—while blasting moonshots—his entire career. His power upside makes him an attractive prospect, but his long-term expectations make him more of a wild card.
If you own Gallo in a dynasty league, trading him would be a great move at this point in time, especially if you can find a suitor that is rebuilding. Sure, you could possibly be giving up 30-35 home runs per season, but for a player that has shown an inability to hit for average, the risk isn’t worth the reward. In mixed re-draft leagues, there is no reason to draft Gallo. He has no path to playing time at this point and needs repetition at Triple-A so that he can hone his craft.
Gallo certainly has the ability to hit 35 home runs per season in the major leagues, but his track record suggests that the baggage is too heavy and he won’t be worth a long-term investment.