2016 MLB Draft Guide: SWIP: Pitching Dominance & Control

For year’s now I’ve been on a crusade to help folks understand baseball. In fact, this is my 15^th year covering fantasy sports full-time and there’s a pretty small group of folks who can match that continuous mark. Sometimes I talk about complicated issues. Sometimes I talk about something I think is common sense. Sometimes I just focus on something that I think is pretty neat. This is one of those instances. In what follows I will detail a simple yet seemingly useful measure that should help you to evaluate the performance of pitchers.

WHAT IS SWIP?

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation.

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP.

EXAMPLE:

Danny Salazar had 195 Ks and 53 BBs in 185 innings in 2015.
(195-53) / 185
142 / 185
0.7675

Salazar’s SWIP for the 2015 season was therefore 0.77.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP, chiefly that the metric favors pitchers with strikeout potential while often shortchanging those pitchers who might actually be “better” real world pitchers).

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective; a key if you will. The key speaks more towards starting pitchers (relievers should all be at least at 0.50).

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89: An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69: Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50: A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34: His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2015.

37,446 Strikeouts
14,073 Walks
43,407.2 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2015 season let's plug the numbers into the equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(37,446 - 14,073) / 43,407.2
23,373 / 43,407.2
0.5384
SWIP = 0.54

The 0.54 mark of last season ties that of the 2014 season which stands as a major league best in the 21st century. But you can look at the last 16 seasons and see the rate keeps inching upward in an almost linear path.

2000: 0.30 SWIP    2001: 0.38 SWIP    2002: 0.35 SWIP    2015: 0.54 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP    2004: 0.36 SWIP    2005: 0.36 SWIP   
2006: 0.37 SWIP    2007: 0.37 SWIP    2008: 0.38 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP    2010: 0.43 SWIP    2011: 0.45 SWIP
2012: 0.50 SWIP    2013: 0.51 SWIP    2014: 0.54 SWIP  

The reason behind the steady growth is found in the fact that pitchers simply impress more and more with the strikeout each year while continuing to limit the free pass effectively.

162 INNINGS PITCHED
 

Three men in baseball were over 1.00 and two were left-handed.

Carlos Carrasco comes in fourth and that’s likely a surprise to some. If he can maintain his levels from last season he simply needs to add the career-long missing component – health – to be an elite performer. He’s never thrown 200 innings.

Corey Kluber was a disappointment to many but he was still top-5 according to SWIP. He had a hell of a season no matter what the general consensus might be.

Jon Lester is probably the first name on the list that may surprise some. It really shouldn’t though. When you strike out a batter per inning you better have an impressive SWIP.

As we will see with ABA (Average Bases Allowed) the effort from Jason Hammel might not have been as strong as it appeared on the surface. SWIP is a fan though.

Ian Kennedy was beaten by the long ball, injuries and stretches of ineffectiveness, but he still had a solid season based on the two measures of walks and strikeouts.

Zack Greinke had a hell of a season, duh, but he was only 19^th in SWIP. Note that of the 18 men above him on the list only three walked fewer batters.

Dallas Keuchel was just below Greinke due at least, in part, due to his huge total of 232 innings.

Players outside the top-25 follow.

King Felix was just off at 26^th overall at 0.66. Blame a slightly reduced K-rate (191 in 201.2 innings).

Jordan Zimmermann only walked 39 batters all year but 164 punchouts in 201.2 innings resulted in a 0.62 mark, 30^th in baseball.

Mike Fiers had a 0.64 mark which was the lowest in baseball for a man with 180 strikeouts.

Johnny Cueto was 33^rd at 0.61.

0.54 LEAGUE AVERAGE

Jeff Samardzija was just under the league average at 0.53. That was expected given his overall suck-i-ness. What was unexpected was the same 0.53 mark from Sonny Gray. That mark was .01 better than the 0.52 mark of both Michael Wacha and Scott Kazmir.

Shelby Miller was the lowest hurler in the game with at least 170 strikeouts. His mark was 0.48, the same as Garrett Richards.

Edinson Volquez was a big name in the playoffs but during the regular season he wasn’t even average at 0.41.
 

80-161 INNINGS PITCHED
 

Dellin Betances is a beast. Period. When you post 131 strikeouts in 84 innings that’s what we say about you.

Stephen Strasburg is always hurt, he had an offseason procedure to remove a non-cancerous growth from his upper right back and he lasted just 127 1/3 innings during the 2015 season. Extremely talented, but an extreme health risk. Nothing new in that statement.

Noah Syndergaard is going to be a monster. Health is all he needs, especially with an arm that induces such impressive ground ball levels as well.

Michael Pineda doesn’t walk anyone, leading to his impressive SWIP. He typically flamed out, though, as the innings mounted.

Raul Iglesias is an arm to watch. Seems extremely likely that he starts all year long in 2016, and if he makes 30 starts he could have one heck of a season.

Trevor May has concerns, but his K/BB rate is not one of them.

I still think that Masahiro Tanaka is a huge injury risk but he was very effective last season. Just note that he failed to throw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title,

Patrick Corbin didn’t have a heralded return from Tommy John surgery but he pitched pretty well when on the bump.

Kevin Gausman needs to just be left alone in the starting rotation. Hear that Orioles? Stop jerking him around and let him pitch every five games.

Jaime Garcia was great last year, right? Well, SWIP has him at 0.52, two hundredths below the league average. Be wary. Oh, and he’s hurt more than Strasburg too.

Phil Hughes walked 16 batters but still was at just 0.50. Ninety-four strikeouts in 155.1 innings will do that to you.

Carlos Rodon has a massive arm. He also had a huge walk total of 71 that led to a mere 0.49 SWIP.

Nathan Eovaldi has a huge arm as well, but his 0.47 speaks to what a frustrating own he can be.

Jered Weaver fell flat on his face (0.36). That was still well above the 0.27 mark of Shane Greene (he fell on his face and then was run over by a semi). Then there was Aaron Sanchez. The kid has a young arm but he was the worst in baseball with a 0.18 mark (minimum 80-innings).

40-79 INNINGS PITCHED
 

No pitcher in baseball was more dominant than Kenley Jansen who was held to just over 52 innings pitched cause of a foot issue early on.

Andrew Miller was the best performer in the AL. The Yankees certainly got their money’s worth and so did fantasy owners who drafted him at the cost of a setup man.

Cody Allen came in sixth in baseball, the first name on the list you probably didn’t predict. It’s certain that no one predicted man No. 7, Sergio Romo. He has a period of time each year where his arm is an issue, and usually has a few weeks in which he stinks, but per usual, Romo was a monster in SWIP.

Jose Fernandez pitched as well as could have been expected. There have been plenty of rumors that his 2016 effort will be capped at 160-180 innings though so be a bit cautious.

There were 14 men who attained a mark of at least 1.00. The leader amongst that group, with a mere four walks, was Evan Scribner. He has a massive 16.00 K/BB ratio that was nearly matched in its stupendousness by his HR/9 rate (2.10). The homer rate was stupendously awful of course.

Craig Kimbrel (No. 6) and Koji Uehara (No. 19) are going to form one hell of an eighth and ninth inning punch for the Red Sox.

Ken Giles fulfilled expectations when the Phillies finally dealt Jonathan Papelbon. Giles had a mark of 0.89, two full tenths better than Paps (0.69).

As far as I can tell, the lowest full-time closer last year was Huston Street at 0.59.

Kelvin Herrera has a great arm but one would think his mark would be better than 0.55.

Tyler Clippard pitched well, yet again, but his 0.46 mark is a bit scary.

Matt Moore was a mess (0.37). He still has a great arm, but no consistency in his first year back from surgery.

Under no circumstances should you roster Chi Chi Gonzalez. His mark was vomit inducing (-0.03). In my mouth. It just happened from writing these four sentences.