2016 MLB Draft Guide: Make Sure to Draft Domingo Santana
Published: Jan 01, 2016
I was going to go chalk here and suggest someone rather obvious like George Springer or Hunter Pence, but why not go a bit to the left and suggest someone no one else is profiling, right?
I’m about as far from mainstream as one can get in some respects given how mainstream I actually am. That’s why you like me. It might actually be why you despise me, but if I’ve got your ear I must be doing something right. So here’s a name you might not know, even if you do know you might have forgotten what team he is on, and it’s far from clear that this man will make the jump to big-time success in 2016. Still, if you’re looking to round out your roster late, and need some help in the outfield, Domingo Santana might just be your man.
Santana started playing for the Phillies when he was 16 years old in 2009 before working his way up to being named the 71st-best prospect in baseball heading into the 2015 season by MLB.com (he was an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic). He was eventually dealt by the Phillies to the Astros in August of 2011 and was moved four years later to the Brewers in July of 2015 in the Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez deal. As things stand, meaning as of this writing, the Brewers outfield would appear to have a full-time opening for Santana, and if given 500 at-bats in the coming season we could be looking at something potentially significant with the slugging outfielder.
Standing 6-foot-5 and weighing in at 225 lbs., Santana cuts an imposing figure. Just 23 years old, the righty swinger failed to get a hit in 17 big league at-bats in 2014. Sent back to the minors he lit up the pitching at Triple-A last season, slashing .333/.426/.573 over 95 games. Santana also went deep 18 times, drove in 77 runs and scored 75 times. Note he did all of that damage in 95 games. Promoted to the Bigs he posted a .771 OPS in 14 games with the Astros before the deal to Milwaukee where he went on to post a .766 OPS over 38 games. Those big league numbers don’t stand out, but the talent does.
As noted, Santana is a big man. He displays power to all fields and can lift the ball into the seats with relative ease if he catches the ball on the barrel. If a pitcher makers a mistake in the zone consider it blasted (he posted an impressive 27.6 percent HR/F ratio last season). At the same time, his power does come with a cost. A big man, his swing is a bit long and he can take a bit too much to get to the ball with his swing path. He is, therefore, someone who can be “pitched” to, and when pitchers make their pitch Santana has a hard time rising to the occasion, something that can be seen in his astronomical 37.6 percent strikeout rate over 205 big league plate appearances.
It’s not a fair comparison at this point to make, but Santana’s game has a lot of Chris Davis in it. Make that mistake and the ball is punished. Make your pitch and he’ll take a seat on the bench, thank you. Before you go thinking, “oh crap,” note there are a ton of free-swinging, mistake-prone hitters that you draft every year in fantasy baseball: Colby Rasmus, Chris Carter, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Marlon Byrd etc.
As we’ve become well aware of in recent times 30 homer power is worth paying a premium for (only 19 men hit that level last season). I’m not saying Santana will hit 30 homers in 2016. I’m merely pointing out that he has the game that could and that means you should be taking a shot on him versus old, boring options like Byrd or Rasmus.
The real concerns for Santana in 2016 follow:
- Though he’s currently in line for every day work, if he struggles how much rope will the Brewers give him?
- Can he make better contact? You can’t consistently produce if you’re striking out once every 2.30 at-bats as Santana has in his young career (hello Joc Pederson).
- Can he lift the ball more effectively? At this point his 29.4 fly ball rate is atrocious. Could it be an artifact of the small sample size in the bigs? Possibly. Unfortunately, the data would seem to suggest otherwise as his minor league rate was a nearly identical 29.1 percent.
- Can Santana refine his game? After all, he’s just 23 years old.
Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself with Santana, so let’s put some context to him.
In 10-team leagues you needn’t look his way.
In 12-team leagues he’s an ideal sixth outfielder.
In 15-team leagues he’s an ideal fifth outfielder.
In league specific setups I would take him as my fourth outfielder, possibly even my third, depending on how my team was constructed.
Don’t reach.
Don’t overpay.
Even if you don’t roster him keep him on your watch list for when the inevitable injuries start to hit in the ever-changing world of fantasy baseball.