Tanner Roark was just a guy until he struck out 15 Twins. That’s all on the Twins folks as they are 5th worst in baseball in K-rate while their total of 183 overall strikeouts is third worst in the game. That’s right, don’t even need to waste your time with an early tease – Roark ain’t no strikeout arm. Put that thought out of your head. The question is does he own the overall skills to be worth of starting in 10/12 mixed leagues moving forward?

 

THE NUMBERS

 

W-L

ERA

WHIP

K/9

BB/9

IP

Minor League

49-40

3.77

1.27

7.7

2.7

664.0

2013

7-1

1.51

0.91

6.71

1.84

53.2

2014

15-10

2.85

1.09

6.25

1.77

198.2

2015

4-7

4.38

1.31

5.68

2.11

111.0

2016

2-2

2.63

1.38

9.00

4.13

24.0

Career

28-20

3.09

1.15

6.32

2.02

387.1

 

THE SKILLS
 

As you can see in the numbers above, there are some pretty good ratios with Roark. Really strong actually. A 3.09 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are impressive numbers. Are they earned? Well, not according to SIERA (3.92) and xFIP (3.82). I agree with those marks. Continue to read on to see why.

Roark struck out 15 Twins. That will never happen again. In Roark’s other three starts this season he struck out nine batters over 17 innings. His rate more than doubled in his last outing.

In 2015 he didn’t have a game with more than six strikeouts.

In 2014 he had one game with more than eight strikeouts (he had 11 on June 6th, 2014).

In 2013 he didn’t have a game with more than six strikeouts.

Over the course of his career his K-rate per nine is 6.32, more than a batter below the league average. As a starting pitcher the mark is tick lower at 6.2 per nine. He also has a mere 7.7 percent swinging strike rate for his career.

It’s not there folks.

He’s not going to help you out in the strikeout column. He’s not even going to be a league average arm in the strikeout category.

Roark does a good job keeping the walks in check with an impressive 2.02 per nine mark for his career. That’s a really good mark. He was slightly above it last season at 2.11, but this season the mark has exploded to 4.13. It will regress but even with all the punchouts this season, because of all the walks, his K/BB ratio is league average at 2.18, nearly a full point below his 3.13 career mark.

Roark has an average ground ball rate of 44.9 percent for his career. Of the 78 men who qualified for the ERA title last year 46 of them, or more than half, had a higher ground ball rate.

Roark does own a 21.7 percent line drive rate for his career, and that’s above the league average. Not a concerning mark, its only about two points up, but another measure that seems to hint at less than elite stuff.

Roark owns a 33.4 percent fly ball rate which is basically league average. He isn’t saddled with a big homer to fly ball mark though so his 8.9 percent HR/FB ratio is just about, you guessed it, league average.

Finally, Roark has a 77.9 percent left on base rate for his career. That’s an extremely high number. Only 16 hurlers bettered that mark last season. It’s logical to think that Roark’s number will regress as the innings pile up.


PLAYING TIME

Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Gio Gonzalez are locked into the rotation. There’s no way that Joe Ross loses his starting spot that I can envision, so barring an injury Roark is the 5th starter with the Nationals. We saw Roark moved to the bullpen last season, and there’s always a chance that could happen this season since Lucas Giolito, arguably the top right-handed pitching prospect in baseball, is waiting in the wings.

CONCLUSION

I usually spend more words that I did here, but there’s just not much to get excited about. Roark is an innings eater and that’s pretty much it. He knows how to pitch, I will give him that, but much like last season when he was demoted he’s kinda on the edge of a guy that has to start versus a guy that could be a swingman type (think Chris Heston with the Giants). Roark is passable to start, no real worries on that, but there is no upside whatsoever marking him more as a spot starter in mixed leagues than someone you should be stoked about running out there every start.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).