2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Josh Bell

Josh Bell is nearly 24 years old, and the 6’4”, 200 lbs hitter is one of the better prospects in baseball. The switch hitter really can’t use the leather very well so he’s been moved to first base, but there is little doubt the bat is legit (truth – his defensive work at first base also stinks). Is he more Joe Mauer than Brandon Belt at this point? Let’s discuss

 THE NUMBERS

Here are his prospect rankings the past few years amongst all youngsters in baseball.

THE SKILLS
 

Let me start with a statement.

There is some debate in the scouting community as to just who Bell is, a fact I hinted at above. Some see a talent on the precipice of producing all-star levels of production. Others see a player that lacks athleticism and a fella who fails to produce much punch as a righty swinger.

Bell has a hit tool that rates about a 60 on the 20-80 scale. However, there is that divergent point of view in the scouting community about the odds that he will reach those heights. The biggest concern seems to be whether or not Bell will learn to lift the ball into the seats. His size dictates he should. However, look at his track record. Per 150 minor league games he’s averaged a mere 14 homers. As I noted at the top, he’s nearly 24 years old so it’s a bit disappointing that his homer total hasn’t begin to rise. Sure he hit 13 homers in 83 games at Triple-A this season, but it’s hard to full “buy” a half season of work as the new norm with any player.

I should also make a special note about his work as a right handed batter and the concerns there. While he drives the ball effectively as a lefty swinger, when Bell turns around to hit right-handed his legs leaves his swing and he simply doesn’t drive the baseball. This season he has three homers as a righty in 100 at-bats which is an improvement on the zero homer in 142 at-bat run he posted last season. Clearly it’s not a certainly that he will be allowed to play daily with the Pirates – he might be benched against lefties.

So the negatives are concerns about his power and his ability to hit left-handed pitching.

Now the positives.

Bell has a solid understanding of the strike zone. He has struck out just 286 times in 456 games, an excellent pace. He’s also walked 193 times leading to a solid 0.67 BB/K which we often don’t see from a young player. I like this a lot.

Bell may have concerns about that power, but his average stroke is apparent. His lack of strikeouts certainly helps, and the results have been there with a .309 minor league average that includes an even more impressive .330 mark at Triple-A over 118 games. There’s not much doubt that he can hit as he consistently makes hard contact.

PLAYING TIME

Check out first base in Pittsburgh and you chiefly see John Jaso. The converted catcher can get on base, his .352 OBP is solid, but that’s really all he brings to the plate. Jaso has a mere four homers, is batting .273 and has a rather sickly .394 SLG. His dreads are great, but his offensive game screams NL-only, not mixed league. Sounds like the Pirates are tired of their NL-only production at first base.

NOTE: A REPORT SUNDAY SUGGGESTED THAT BELL WOULD BE SENT BACK TO TRIPLE-A AND NOT REMAIN WITH THE PIRATES IN THE SHORT-TERM.

CONCLUSION

Bell has hit .361 with six RBI his last 10 games and he hit .364 with seven homers and 26 RBI in June providing plenty of data to suggest he’s in a nice groove as he reaches the majors. He also has the reputation of being a hard worker which is a plus. However, there’s a lack of power here, at least that’s how I read it. I know things look better this season, but again, I’d like to see more than 83 games out of 456 before I think a guy has reached a new level. The concerns about his lack of refinement against left-handed pitching also points to a fella who could end up being platooned (lucky for him Jaso can’t hit lefties either).

10-team mixed: With the depth at first base in the big leagues, I’m just not interested in Bell here. A best case scenario would likely be Hanley Ramirez like production (HanRam is hitting .287-8-48 with an .801 OPS). A more likely scenario might be Joe Mauer like stuff (.270-7-20 with a .755 OPS). Of course, some rookies need a lot of time to find their groove meaning there could obviously be even lesser production.

12-team mixed: Can make a bid here, but be sensible. If you look at your waiver-wire and you see names like Mark Reynolds, Adrian Gonzalez or Travis Shaw on waivers, do you really need to add Bell?

15-team mixed: Worth a bid, though it will likely be costly. Bell has been hot at the minor league level for more than a month, has a nice approach and makes solid contact. In a league of this depth that kind of game, and this kind of talent, is worth taking a chance on.

NL-only: It’s not often you get a chance to add a guy who should basically play daily in a league this deep. That alone make Bell worthy of a big bid. Chances are everyone in this setup needs Bell, and with his prospect status and hoopla he is going to cause you to blow your budget if for some asinine reason he isn’t already on a roster (he obviously should have been drafted and held).

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).