2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Alex Reyes

Alex Reyes is not yet 22 years old. Standing 6’3” and weighing in at 175 lbs, the righty has one dynamic wing. With the injury to Michael Wacha, Reyes will be asked pitch for the Cardinals… bullpen it appears (not out of the rotation).  Let’s break down the skill set of Reyes, which is elite, and try to get some clarity as to how he will be used by the big league club.

THE NUMBERS

Here are his prospect ratings amongst all players in the game, regardless of position played.

THE SKILLS

Reyes has an elite fastball that comes in at a 75 on the 20-80 scale, and that’s an elite mark. He sits at 96-97 mph with the heater and can tickle triple digits. When he keeps the pitch low it explodes downward as it’s a very “heavy” fastball. It’s an elite pitch. Period.

The curveball is also a different maker coming in at about 65 on the 20-80 scale. It roundly described as a power curveball that can have devastating effects on batters. The 12-to-6 hammer curve is a plus/plus pitch. His 1-2 punch of fastball and curveball say that he can get hitters out in the big leagues right now. Zero doubt. Baseball America even suggested that Reyes could pull a Dellin Betances if the Cardinals chose to call him up to work out of the bullpen. He should be able to dominate right away with his two offerings.

Success as a starter long term will likely rely on how his frame hold up, and how he mixes in his third pitch, a changeup. He throws so hard that his changeup is literally as hard at Tim Lincecum’s fastball. This is a solid pitch, and he understands that using the pitch allows him to have extreme levels of success with his two dominant offerings.

Speaking of his physical nature, Alex is built like me. Nothing wrong with that of course (that’s what she said), but scouts will always have some questions with a hurler on the thinner size until he fills out of proves he can rack up innings. Luckily for Reyes he is fairly athletic and is able to repeat his delivery with consistency, even with a bit of a stiff motion and extended follow through. When he’s locked in he is a very rough at-bat.

At the same time there are some negatives here.

1 – He was suspended 50-games for marijuana use. Whatever you think about weed, the fact is it’s banned and you can’t get on the Puff on the Magic Dragon train. Concerning that he wasn’t smart enough to avoid the temptations.

2 – The 21 year old has very few innings on his arm. To reiterate, here are his innings totals.

2013: 58.1 innings
2014: 109.0 innings
2015: 101.1 innings
2016: 65.1 innings

One positive of the weed… it’s helped to limit his innings this season which means he shouldn’t have to be shut down, but still, there are no innings here.

3 – The walks.

This is a huge issue.

In 349 professional innings Reyes has walked 180 batters. That leads to a 4.6 BB/9 rate. You cannot have success as a starting pitcher in the big leagues with a mark that high. Only one pitcher in baseball with at least 100-innings pitched this season has walked more than 4.32 batters per nine, and that’s Francisco Liriano who is 6-11 with a 5.34 ERA to go along with his 5.34 BB/9 rate. Last season, only one pitcher in baseball who threw 162 innings had a mark above 3.90 (Trevor Bauer at 4.04 per nine).

Reyes has a 4.4 BB/9 rate this season in 14 starts.

Reyes simply loses the strike zone at times.

In the minors where his stuff cannot be touched it hasn’t harmed his overall effectiveness too much. If he comes to the bigs not being able to locate, and there is zero data to suggest that he will all of a sudden lock-in, anything resembling consistency with Reyes seems unlikely.

PLAYING TIME

Despite a need in the rotation, Reyes isn’t going to start for the Cardinals, this according to Derrick Gold and Ben Frederickson. Rick Hummel wrote the same thing as well. So all those dreams you had of adding Reyes and riding him to a championship, it’s not likely to happen.

Luke Weaver will take the open rotation spot vacated by Wacha (he will enter the rotation Saturday against the Cubs). Weaver was a first round pick in 2014 and he’s been stupendous. Standing 6’2” and weighing in at 175 lbs, the righty has made 13 starts this season with a 7-3 record, 1.30 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 10.3 strikeouts per nine and 12 walks. Yep, less than one walk a start folks. A fly ball hurler, he’s drawn some Jered Weaver comparisons and while that is a bit scary at the moment, don’t forget that Jered was a very good pitcher for years before he lost his velocity. Luke throws 92-93 mph and augments it with an above average changeup. His curveball has been improving to the point that it’s also a pitch he can get outs on. Note that he too has no innings on his arm: 9.1 innings in 2014, 124.1 innings last season and 83 innings this year. Like Reyes though, he shouldn’t need to be shut down this season because of a current inning total that is low.

CONCLUSION

Reyes has an elite arm. Period.

He has horrible bouts of being unable to throw strikes. Period.

At least for now, he will be used out of the bullpen by the Cardinals.

That news makes him a strong addition in NL-only leagues, nothing more. If he is slide into the starting rotation he would be of immediate interest in mixed leagues, but with performance to date that mirrors Francisco Liriano you would be wise to slow play the love for Reyes… at least for now.  

As for Weaver, he’s an immediate and better add in NL-only leagues than Reyes. With the trade deadline past, and Wacha continuing to have issues that are causing concerns with him long-term, it’s possible Weaver will end up starting for more than two weeks for the Cardinals. Weaver is a good add in mixed leagues for the fact he’s skilled, is pitching well, and doesn’t beat himself with the walk.

Here's a video link with the Cardinals GM breaking down the situation. 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 8 PM EDT, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 11 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).