Miguel Montero left the D'backs this offseason, the only organization he's ever known, to join the Cubs as he was dealt east in exchange for Jeferson Mejia and Zack Godley. Owed $40 million over the next three seasons, the Cubs are hoping that the 31 year old backstop, who has been one of the better RBI men at the position the past few years, will be able to provide veteran leadership along with a run producing bat in 2015.
THE MINORS
2001: Signed as a free agent out of Venezuela by the Diamondbacks.
2002-10: Appeared in 622 games hitting .287 with 77 homers, 361 RBIs, 286 runs scored and 17 steals. Also posted a .359 OBP and .456 SLG. Prior to the 2007 season he was named the 63rd best prospect in baseball by Baseball America while he came in at 76th on the Baseball Prospectus list.
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THE MAJORS
2006: Saw action in six games hitting .250 with three RBIs.
2007: Appeared in 84 games batting .224 with 10 homers, 37 RBIs and 30 runs scored.
2008: Was involved in 70 games batting .255 with five homers, 18 RBIs and 24 runs scored.
2009: Had his first big season hitting 16 long balls with 59 RBIs and 61 runs scored. Also hit a career best .294.
2010: Fell back to 85 games played as he needed surgery on his right knee which cost him two months of game action. He hit .266 with nine homers and 43 RBIs.
2011: Returned to prominence batting .282 with 18 homers and 86 RBIS while crossing home plate 65 times over 140 games.
2012: In 141 games of action Montero hit .286 with 15 homers, 88 RBIs and 65 runs scored in a near carbon copy of his '11 season.
2013: Hit just .230 with 11 homers, 42 RBIs and 44 runs scored over 116 games as a lower back injury cost him about a month.
2014: Appeared in 136 games batting .243 with 13 homers and just 40 runs scored. However, he did record 72 RBIs, the third time in four years that he reached that mark.
THE SKILLS
I'm feeling feisty today.
Who led catchers in RBIs in 2014? It was Buster Posey with 89. You didn't think it was Montero, did you? Of course not, but, did you know that Montero was sixth amongst catchers in RBIs with 72? Montero had more RBIs than Salvador Perez (71) and Jonathan Lucroy (69) to name but a few.
Did you know that Montero and Lucroy had the same number of homers last season with 13?
Did you know that Montero had a better OPS than Brian McCann or Perez last season (.699 to .692 and .692)?
Montero is more than just last season too.
The last three seasons that Montero has recorded 425 at-bats he's driven in at least 72 runs (the time he missed was 2013 when he had just 42 in 413 at-bats). Do you know how many catchers have three seasons of 72 RBIs the past four years? No one has four so the winning answer is three, as in three men have had three seasons of 72 RBIs in four years. Those men are Posey, Carlos Santana and Montero.
How many catchers have hit at least 11 homers the last four seasons? I'll give you a second to calculate the number. The answer is five men: Russell Martin, Lucroy, McCann, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Montero.
So for the last four seasons Montero has been one of the better HR/RBI men at the catcher position. Were you aware of that? I'm certain that most of you reading this weren't, and even if you knew he was solid you weren't aware of how solid a bat he has been.
One last look there. The last four seasons that Montero has had at least 425 at-bats, the only four times he has hit that mark, he's hat at least 11 homers and 59 RBIs season season. Not great numbers at all, but those are still totals that only 11 guys reached last season (and Santana is no longer catcher eligible and Dioner Navarro is now backing up Russel Martin).
From 2009-12 here are the season by season batting marks for Montero: .294, .266 (85 games), .282 and .286. He was consistently a plus bat in the batting average category. The last two seasons he's fallen on hard times batting .230 and .243. What gives?
The last three seasons, for the first time in his career, Montero has posted a walk rate of at least 10 percent. He's become more patient with age, a common trait. Alas, he's also struck out more with two of the three worst K-rates of his career occurring the past three seasons. Still, for a man with a 0.50 BB/K ratio, his numbers the last three seasons are right there (0.56, 0.46, 0.58). That belies the fact that his swinging strike percentage is up with marks of 11.3 and 12.2 in 2012-13 (those are the two worst marks of his career). At least his swinging at pitches outside the strike zone approach has remained stable. His career mark is 31.1 percent and his mark the last three seasons are right in line with that (29.8, 31.9 and 29.6 percent).
There's been a shift in his approach though the last two seasons.
The last two seasons he's posted a ground ball rate of 46.5 percent, well above the mark of 41 percent before that. He's also hit less fly balls with the two lowest fly ball percentages of his career the past two seasons (31.4 and 33.2 percent versus his career mark of 36.9). Still, fewer ground balls and less fly balls, while obviously capping his homers, should help his batting average. As we noted above, that hasn't happened despite the fact that his line drive rate the past two years is better than his career rate.
2013: 21.4 percent
2014: 20.8 percent
career: 20.3 percent
Same amount of liners, more grounders, less fly balls, a roughly similar BB/K rate and his average is down some .040 points. Why? Oh BABIP you vex thy. Here are his BABIP marks from 2008 through last season.
2008: .321
2009: .327
2010: .318
2011: .317
2012: .362
2013: .282
2014: .275
Ugh. Players set their own baselines, we know this, and three year running totals in this category are a decent predictive tool for the next season. The mark has been .303 the last three seasons and his career mark is .306. We could see an uptick in the batting average of Montero this season. Don't expect it to rise to the .280 level of the past, but a boost to his career mark of .264 is possible.
PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS
Montero is fully expected to be the main backstop for the Cubs. However, playing time could be a little tricky. The Cubs signed David Ross to a two year deal this offseason, and some thought has been given to him being the personal catcher for Jon Lester. If that's the basic setup you're still all good with drafting Montero and expecting solid numbers. Alas, the club still has Wellington Castillo and it would make me feel much better for the outlook of Montero if the Cubs were to deal Castillo so that we wouldn't have to worry about him siphoning off a few starts here and there.
CONCLUSION
No one pays attention to Montero. An injury here and there have helped to blunt the obvious talents he brings. The dip in productivity the last two years in the batting average category is a concern, but as we have seen there is a reasonable expectation of at least a minor rebound there. I've also been able to illustrate that Montero has long been a productive run producing option which should intrigue you. Montero could produce like a catcher one in fantasy, and it's quite possible that you won't have to draft him as such to get him on your roster.
10 team lg: Right on the cusp of being starter worthy. Really comes down to whether a guy like Wilson Ramos can stay healthy or if Wilin Rosario gets enough at-bats moving all over the field for the Rockies to surpass what figures to be a productive season for Montero.
12 team lg: Ideally still a second catcher, and likely a backstop that you will be able to roster at that level. If so, consider yourself to be in good shape with Montero.
15 team lg: It might not be advisable to wait and wait and wait until the catcher's position starts to be picked through, but if you do wait and tab Montero to be your starter at the position there's absolutely nothing wrong with that whatsoever.
NL-only: Really, how many guys are better in this setup? Posey and Lucroy for sure, maybe Devin Mesoraco, Yadier Molina, Ramos and Rosario but then? Some will argue for Yasmani Grandal and/or Travis d'Arnaud, but the fact is that Montero as a stater in this format should make you feel very comfortable.