Before 2014 Josh Harrison was a nobody, the type that even those that played in NL-only leagues really had no interest in. He had never hit in the bigs, never shown power, never shown an ability to get on base and flat out just couldn't get it done. In 2014 that all changed. Not only did Harrison qualify all over the field with his glove, but he challenged for the NL batting title, nearly stole 20 bases, and almost his 15 homers. Any chance that the 27 year old can replicate that effort in the coming campaign?

THE MINORS

2008: Drafted in the 6th round by the Chicago Cubs. As a 20 year old he appeared in 64 games batting .305 with 18 steals and 42 runs at Low-A and Single-A ball. 

2009: Traded to the Pirates with Jose Ascanio and Kevin Hart for Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow. Appeared in 131 games at Single-A and High-A hitting .311 with six homers, 55 RBIs, 76 runs scored and 30 steals. 

2010: Appeared in 135 games at Double-A batting .300 with 75 RBIs, 74 runs and 19 steals.   

2011: The 23 year old saw action in 62 games hitting .310 with a .365 OBP and .460 SLG. He hit five homers, stole 13 bases and scored 35 times.

2013: Was on the field 64 times at Triple-A batting .317 with a .373 OBP and .507 SLG. He stole 19 bases and scored 50 times. 

TOTALS: .309/.360/.440 with 22 homers, 224 RBIS, 296 runs and 105 steals in 478 games. 

THE MAJORS

2011: Appeared in 65 games with the Pirates batting .272 with a homer, 16 RBIs and 21 runs scored. He Walked three times in 204 plate appearances.

2012: Saw the field 104 times leading to a .233 average, three homers, 16 RBIs and 34 runs scored over 276 plate appearances. 

2013: Saw action in just 60 games hitting .250 with three homers, 14 RBIs and 10 runs scored. 

2014: Exploded on the fantasy scene like a balloon that's been overinflated with helium. Harrison batted .315 with 13 homers, 52 RBIs, 77 runs scored and 18 steals for the Pirates in a phenomenal out of nowhere season.

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THE SKILLS

Harrison is 27 years old, he turns 28 in July, and though his minor league track record is one that is filled with success, his performance at the big league level had been severely lacking prior to last season. Here are the numbers he posted over his first three big league seasons. 

.250/.282/.367 with seven homers, 46 RBIs, 65 runs and 13 steals.

The league average from 2011-13 was .254/.316/.401

Clearly Harrison wasn't even up to the standards of being a league average guy. That's why no one was paying him any attention. So how does a .250/.282/.367 guy go .315/.347/.490 transforming himself into one of the better offensive players in the National League?

AVERAGE

The growth Harrison showed wasn't because of his approach at the dish. I talk about this all the time, but the fact is that when you never walk it's very difficult to produce a consistently high batting average. Harrison walked 22 times in 550 plate appearances last season. Only one other of the 16 men who hit .300 last season failed to walked at least 34 times - it was Ben Revere who hit .306 with 13 walks. You can hit .300 with fewer than 30 walks, but it's simply making your job monumentally difficult if you don't walk. More data.

2013: 24 men hit .300. Only three walked fewer than 40 times
2012: 25 men hit .300. Only five walked fewer than 40 times.
2011: 26 men hit .300. Only five walked fewer than 40 times.

REMEMBER... Harrison walked 22 times last season. 

At least he only struck out 81 times.

BABIP... you know it was high. The mark was .353 for Harrison. The previous three years the mark was .275. Do you know how many players posted a .350 BABIP in each of the last two seasons (2013-14)? Two men and that's it: Freddie Freeman and Andrew McCutchen. Feeling good about Harrison repeating?

Harrison had a 24 percent line drive rate last season. That mark was the 23d best in baseball. Prior to last season he had posted a mark of 19.9 percent with the Pirates. Do you know how many players posted back-to-back seasons of 24.0 percent in 2013 and 2014? The list includes just six men: Austin Jackson, James Loney, Alejandro De Aza, Freddie Freeman, Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera. Feeling good about Harrison repeating?

Yes, Harrison will not hit .315 again. Hitting .300 again is likely a no-go as well. In fact, he may not hit even reach his career mark of .282. Sorry, just the cold truth of it folks. 

POWER 

Harrison hit seven homers in his first 532 at-bats. He then doubled that pace in '14 hitting 13 in 520 at-bats.  

Did he hit more fly balls? Nope. His career fly ball rate is 38.8 percent and his mark last year was 38.7 percent. 

Did he improve his HR/F ratio? Of course he did. Still, only moderate growth was shown from 5.8 percent for his career up to 7.7 percent. During his minor league career, from 2011, his HR/F ratio was 7.1 percent. Given the above numbers it's possible that with just a little growth in the HR/F rate that a 15 homer season is possible. Note I used the word "possible. Harrison should still be drafted as a 10 homer bat with 15 homer upside.

SPEED

Over 575 plate appearances his first three seasons Harrison stole 13 bases. In 550 plate appearances in 2014 he stole 18. Not only did he steal more, he was also caught more. In his first 575 plate appearances Harrison attempted 17 thefts. Note, I just mentioned how he stole 18 bases last season in 550 PAs. He was also caught seven times leaving him with a barely acceptable 72 percent success rate. Could his steal total improve? Certainly. Could it regress as well? The obvious answer is yes. Here's why.

Will he get on base? 

As I noted above, the guy just doesn't walk, ever. Therefore an increase in his steals mark is unlikely. Why? Will he hit .315 again? I think all sane people will say there's no chance. Therefore, his OBP is going to take a big time tumble will it not? For his career his OBP of .314 is below the league average of .320. Not just that, his first three big league seasons he didn't even record a .295 OBP. That's horrific. For his career the spread between his batting average (.282) and OBP (.314) is just .032 points. If you're not even getting on base at a league average clip, how can you be expected to post big time steals numbers? Personally, I don't think his type of game speaks to steals growth, do you? Maybe he gets to 20, but appreciable growth isn't likely.  

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

Harrison will obviously play every day, there's no question about that. The question is about where he will play. He qualifies at outfield (26 games played in 2014) and third base (72) - where he will most likely see most his game action. Harrison also appeared in 17 games at second base so in some leagues he might still retain that designation in 2015. Check your league settings to be sure. The versatility is huge, especially as the leagues get deeper. 

CONCLUSION

Josh Harrison will likely be over-drafted in many a league this season. The odds are heavily tilted in favor of overall regression for Harrison. His average will certainly decline, no doubt about that. He could jack a few more balls, could, just like he could steal a few more bags. At the same time, expecting that number - homers and steals - to hit 35 in 2014 is asking a lot. Harrison will be a solid contributor, a Howie Kendrick type, but don't expect him to run off a series of seasons that match the overall production he posted last season. 

10 team lg: A depth play. He's not a starter at third, but could be a guy you look at if you start five outfielders. Still, he wouldn't be anything other than a reserve if it was a Ray Flowers team.

12 team lg: A corner infield option, I still don't want him to be my starter at third base in this format. Only start him at corner if you have the power to do so as first base offers players you can draft late that could double the homer mark of Harrison. 

15 team lg: Now we're talking. Harrison could start either in the outfield (so-so) or infield (better) for your fantasy squad. I still don't see a reason to expect growth, or even a repeat of 2014, so the support is only moderate. 

NL-only: The positional flexibility he brings add a few bucks an a round or two to his value. A solid all-around season, even with the potential down turn, is in the cards for Harrison making him a nice addition to any squad this season. Just be warned that if you look at him as a "growth" type player, you will likely be disappointed.