Jason Heyward was dealt from the Braves to the Cardinals this offseason (here's my Player Profile of the man he was dealt for - Shelby Miller). A former 20/20 player, the fantasy universe seems split on what the expectations should be with Heyward. Is a in line for a rebound to the level of fantasy excellence, or has he settled in as merely a blah option in the outfield?

THE MINORS

2007: As a 17 year old he appeared in 12 games at Rookie Ball hitting .302 with a .843 OPS.

2008: Baseball America ranked him as the 28th best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had him 36th. The 18 year old Heyward appeared in 127 games at Single-A and High-A ball killing it to the tune of a .316/.381/.473 slash line. He scored 91 runs, hit 11 homers and stole 15 bases. 

2009: Baseball America ranked him as the 5th best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had him 10th. Appeared in 99 games at High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. He posted a .963 OPS with 17 homers and 10 steals (his slash line was .323/.408/.555).

2010: Baseball America ranked him as the best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had him second.

2011:  Appeared in two games at Triple-A.

2013: Appeared in six games at Triple-A.

TOTALS: .317/.391/.503 with 29 homers, 27 steals and 166 runs scored in 246 games. 

THE MAJORS

2010: Had an impressive rookie season that culminated in him finishing the runner up in the NL ROY race to Buster Posey. Heyward hit .277 with a .393 OBP on his way to 18 homers, 11 steals, 72 RBIs and 83 runs scored. Missed a couple of weeks with a left thumb issue

2011: Appeared in 128 games producing dreadful numbers. Heyward hit .227 with a .319 OBP and .389 SLG (that last mark was lower than his rookie OBP). Heyward had 14 homers, nine steals and scored 50 runs. Missed more than three weeks with a shoulder issue.

2012: His best season to date resulted in 27 homers, 21 steals, 82 RBIs and 93 runs scored (all career bests). He hit .269 with a .814 OPS in 158 games. 

2013: Missed a couple of months with a fractured jaw and appendicitis as he appeared in just 104 games. He hit .254 with a .776 OPS leading to 67 runs scored, 14 homers and two steals.

2014: Only hit 11 homers though he returned to the 20 steal level. Scored 74 times while driving in 58 runs over 149 games played. 

Per 162 games played for his career: .262-20-69-87-15

THE SKILLS

Heyward stands 6'5" and weighs 245 lbs. He is a massive human being. Humongous is he. When he lays into a pitch, really squares it up, the ball jumps off his bat in a manner that few can match. You'll hear baseball folks say that the bat/ball sounds different when contact is made. You can hear it. He's immensely talented, albeit with questions about his performance dogging him.

Did you know he was that big? 

Did you know that he's 25 years old? Heyward has 681 big league games under his belt and he's not even 26 yet (he turns 26 in August). Here is a list of players who were born in 1989. Check it. Heyward is younger than Andrelton Simmons, Eric Hosmer and ... get this... just a month older than George Springer. Read that again to let it sink in. The point is that Heyward is still very young if you look at his birth certificate. Perhaps giving up on him is a bit rash after all?

Heyward owns a career slash line of .262/.351/.429. That's better than the league average for sure, but given his size, talent, experience and relative youth, it's certainly disappointing. At least the OBP is there. At this point it's hard to think he's repeating that .393 mark from his rookie season but the last two years the mark has been .349 and .351, so you can feel pretty good about his current level of production in that category at least.

Another heartening aspect of Heyward's game is that he has lowered his strikeout rate the past two seasons. The first three years in the league his K-rate was over 20 percent. The last two seasons its under 17. Put another way. Heyward struck out 152 times in 158 games in 2012. He's struck out 181 times in his last 253 games. 

Does all of that mean his batting average will increase? Maybe, maybe not. His approach is slowly improving, but the other measures I glance at to consider when talking batting average aren't overly promising. Heyward has a .304 career BABIP. The mark has been between .281 and .319 the last three years. Solid, but not exciting. Heyward has an 18.2 percent line drive rage for his career. The mark has been at least 18.9 percent the last three seasons. Solid, but again, nothing standoutish at all (made that word up).

The first two years of his career Heyward was hitting about 54 percent of his batted balls into the ground. He's started to lift the ball better with age, something we often see. The last three years Heyward has been hitting ground balls at about 44 percent of those batted balls, and the last three seasons his fly ball rate has, barely, been above the league average (36 percent). His GB/FB mark the last three seasons speaks to the consistency he's found with his stroke: 1.20, 1.25 and 1.28.

As for those fly balls, he owns a career 13.0 percent HR/F ratio, a mark he reached in each of his first four seasons. Last year the mark was 6.5 percent - literally half of his norm. Expect a rebound in 2015.

Should also note that Heyward has long struggled against lefties. Heyward has hit .221 with a .650 against southpaws. He's been much better against righties (.281 and .839). You might want to bench Jason against tough lefties.

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PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS
 

Do to the premature death of Oscar Taveras, the Cardinals moved quickly to fill their outfield opening with Heyward (they sent Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins to the Braves). The Cards will boast an outfield of Matt Holliday, Jon Jay and Heyward - a multiple Gold Glove winner by the way - with Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk around for depth. It's unclear where Heyward will hit in the order, though he's certainly in the mix to hit leadoff (the other options appear to be Matt Carpenter and Jon Jay with Kolten Wong a distant fourth). Keep an eye on the battle in Spring Training. 

Heyward has been called soft by many around the game. He seems to have a hard time playing through injury, even minor ones. He's no Josh Hamilton, but it should be noted that his average games played mark the last four seasons is 135 games - which equates to a missed month each season. Just putting it out there.

CONCLUSION

Heyward is 25 years old. His skills are slowly improving. He's a huge man who possesses immense skill. In 2012 that talent was on full display. How good was he then? Knowledge drop.

Player A: .269-27-82-93-21 with a .814 OPS
Player B: .284-23-73-95-34 with a .833 OPS

Player A is Heyward in 2012.
Player B is Carlos Gomez in 2014.

Ruminate on that a bit before you dismiss Heyward.

10 team lg: Hard to get too excited about in a three outfielder league, but if you start five Heyward's obviously gotta be in someone's lineup (duh). Everyone is starting borderline all-stars in a league this shallow though, so make sure you have depth to cover Heyward in case his production doesn't catch up to his talent in '15.

12 team lg: I think Heyward can be a top-25 outfielder this season. That being the case, slotting him as your second outfield option is fine to do. If you can get him as your 3rd or 4th outfielder which seems likely in some leagues, consider yourself a winner - just like those of us that work at Fantasy Alarm are every day. 

15 team lg: Heyward can make a run to 20/20, and if he hits near the top of the Cardinals lineup, and stays healthy, he could end up scoring 85 times for the second time in his career. Those numbers would be difference making given his cost in a league of this size. How many former 20/20 guys are floating around after the first two or three rounds?

NL-only: Not gonna say I'm all in on Heyward, but I would be targeting him. Chances are good that his draft day cost will be lower than it should be which represents a prime buy-low opportunity. Just think if Heyward is your 2rd outfielder and he reverts to '12 levels. 

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