Carlos Carrasco was at one time one of the brighter prospects in baseball. Arm woes and surgery followed, but in the second half of the 2014 season he reminded us all about the talent that his right arm possesses. Talking the pulse of the fantasy community you will hear some folks sold on his immanent breakout in 2015, so much so that some believe him to be worthy of a top-25 ranking among starting pitchers. Is that fair or will such expectations lead to disappointment in the coming campaign?

THE MINORS

The now 27 year old righty was a top-55 prospect, in all of baseball, each year from 2007-09 according to Baseball America. Another judge of talent, Baseball Prospectus, had Carlos inside their top-45 overall prospects in two of those season (he was 68th the other year). The future was obviously luminous. So how did he develop? The numbers always seemed to lag behind the talent, that's how. Here are his career minor league numbers over 964.1 innings:

63-52, 3.97 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Those are solid numbers, but certainly not the elite levels one would expect to find. Let's look at his upper level work. Here are his numbers in 415.2 innings at Triple-A:

26-19, 3.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Better, especially the strikeout and walk numbers. But here's an issue. Do you know how many seasons Carrasco has appeared in games at the Triple-A level? Four. That's a lot of time on the calendar. Part of the reason for that length of time in the minors were his elbow woes. Things got so bad that he had to have Tommy John surgery in September of 2011. As a result he didn't throw a single professional pitch in 2012. In 2013 he tossed 71.2 innings at Triple-A in addition to the 46.2 innings he tossed at the big league level. In 2014 he didn't throw a single minor league pitch spending all his time in the Show.

THE MAJORS

Carrasco was awful his first four seasons in the big leagues. Wait, that may not be a strong enough adjective to describe his work. Let me try again. Carrasco was repugnant in his first four big league seasons. Check out the numbers:

11-19, 5.29 ERA, 1.53 ERA, 6.19 K/9, 3.13 BB/9 over 238.1 innings. 

So what happened last season when he suddenly surged to an 8-7 record with a 2.55 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 9.40 K/9 and 1.95 BB/9 rate over 134 innings? That's the bazillion dollar question with Carrasco.

THE SKILLS

Carrasco brings the cheddar with the best of them. Last season his average heater was 95.3 mph. It's fair to note that he only made 14 starts out of his 40 appearances so that number might come down a bit as a full-time starter, but his career mark is a still impressive 93.8 mph. Arm strength is not an issue. Carrasco augments the heater with a slider he threw 21 percent of the time, more than double the rate in which he threw that pitch in his previous big league exposure, and it was a huge key to his success. Of the 432 sliders he threw last season batters hit .126 with a .292 OPS. That's sick. For his career those numbers aren't much higher (.146 and .381). When he is able to get a batter to swing at the slider they have no chance. Carrasco also threw a curve ball about nine percent of the time and a changeup about 14 percent of his pitches. He uses four pitches, and there simply aren't many that do that. 

Does this increased use of the slider explain his success in 2014? Partly of course, but it doesn't fully explain the massive leap forward in production that he offered last season. Let's go step-by-step.

Carrasco struck out 6.19 batters per nine his first four seasons. Last year that mark climbed more than three full batters to 9.40. Moreover, the mark was actually even higher in his 91 innings as a starter at 9.99 over 91 innings. Is it logical to expect the number to remain that high? I'll let you give the obvious answer to that one.

Carrasco walked 3.13 batters per nine innings in his first four seasons. Last year that mark was cut by more than a full batter down to 1.95 per nine. Recall his minor league mark was 3.3 per nine. I'm all for relying more on a pitch than in years previous and that leading to increased success, but it's very rare, exceedingly so, to see a guy cut his walk rate by more than a third after - literally - a decade at the higher number. Do you believe in 10 years or four months when you're evaluating a player? Ninety-nine percent of the time you're gonna take the 10 years over the four months, aren't you? 

Carrasco posted a HR/9 rate of 1.17 his first four seasons and never had a mark below 0.77 prior to last years 0.47 rate. Really think he's going to repeat a number that is 1/3 of his previously established rate? It's highly unlikely that he will be able to repeat the 7.1 percent HR/F ratio he has last season, well below the 13 percent mark he had the previous four seasons. The homers, they are going up in 2015.

Carrasco has long done something well, not matter the level or his health situation, and that is generating ground balls with aplomb. For his career as a big leaguer Carrasco has a 1.72 GB/FB ratio thanks to a 51.1 percent ground ball rate. That's an elite number for a starting pitcher (only 16 starters who threw 162 innings last year bettered it). In 2014 the number was slightly higher at 52.8 percent. 

Impressive all-around is this mans skill-set.

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

After spending a good deal of last season working out of the pen, there's no debate this time around. The Indians plan on starting Carrasco in their rotation, and the hope is that he will remain there all season long along with Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar and either T.J. House or Gavin Floyd. 

CONCLUSION

Carrasco profiles as a wonderful strikeout /  ground ball type of hurler that I always tell folks to target. Toss in his lack of walks last year and you have an effort that Felix Hernandez would be impressed by. In fact, do you know how many seasons that King Felix has had with a K/9 rate of 9.40, a walk rate of 1.95 and a ground ball rate of 53 percent? The answer is the same number of times that Carrasco has done it - once. And that's the rub with Carrasco. He's talented, there's no debating that, but everything shows a massive level of improvement last season. Not just that, but the level of improvement shows him to not only be better than he was, but one of the elites of the game. Take note - not just good, but ELITE. Is it reasonable to expect him to be the guy we saw for four months last season or should we be looking at the pitcher we literally saw for an entire decade before that?

One last issue to raise, an it's a significant one in my mind. Let's look at the innings pitched tree of Carrasco for the duration of his professional career.

2004: 48 minor league innings
2005: 83 innings
2006: 159.1 innings
2007: 140 innings
2008: 151.1 innings
2009: 157 innings plus plus 22.1 in the bigs (179.1 total) 
2010: 150.1 innings plus 44.2 in the bigs (195 total) 
2011: 3.2 innings plus 124.2 in the bigs (128.1 total) 
2012: none
2013: 71.2 innings plus 46.2 in the bigs (118 total) 
2014: 134 innings

He's only thrown 180-innings in a season one time in more than a decade of professional work, and over the last two years he's averaged 126 innings pitched. Will he have enough bullets in his arm, no matter how he performs, to make 30+ starts in 2015?

10 team lg: With the potential downside, Carrasco should only be added to a roster in this format if the cost is reasonable. Don't reach for his services. Someone likely will. 

12 team lg: Someone might make him their SP2 in this format. Don't be that guy (or gal). Even as your SP3 there is plenty of risk of risk with Carlos in a league this size. If he slides to the level of costing you a pick commiserate with SP4 value, pounce.

15 team lg: A league this size often swings on those mid-level selections. Like with the previous two comments, you want Carrasco on your squad in this format. However, with the waiver-wire being relatively thin, it would behoove you not to over invest in Carrasco. It's one thing if your SP6 craps out. It's a totally different ball game if your SP2 does in a league with a thinner than normal waiver-wire. 

AL-only: Totally depends on the cost. While I want him on my staff, I can't have Carrasco be my highest priced arm, not with all the uncertainty about his ability to sustain the growth he showed last season. There's also that pesky issue of his ability to sustain success over 180+ innings. Huge risk/reward. In the words of Dirty Harry "You've got to ask yourself one question, do I feel lucky? Well, do you punk?"