Billy Hamilton Hits Worse Than Your Half-Blind, 84-Year-Old Grandmother?
There are a few things that I know with utter certainty.
Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball.
Jill Scott can sing.
Brooklyn Decker is smoking hot.
Jeff Mans has great hair. At least the frosted tips.
I've got mad "game" at a bar on Friday night.
The mere sound of my voice is a panty dropper.
And then there is this... Billy Hamilton cannot hit, not a lick.
I said it prior to the start of the 2014 season. Over and over. No one listened. All anyone cared about was the speed Hamilton brought to the table (I'll get to that in a bit), and as a result, he was being drafted in the 5th or 6th round in many mixed leagues. Hamilton then went out and hit .327 in June to help push his batting average to a rather impressive .285 at the All-Star break. I looked like a fool. Then reality set in and everyone started to remember that Billy Hamilton cannot hit. Sit down for this. It's not going to be pretty. Buckle in.
Hamilton hit .214 at home.
Hamilton hit .210 at home against right-handed pitching.
In 291 at-bats when he fell behind 0-1, he hit .206.
Hamilton hit .200 over his last 60 games. Sixty.
In 44 at-bats in which the count was full, he hit .192.
Hamilton hit .123 over his last 19 games.
Hamilton hit .108 when he hit the ball in the air (148 at-bats).
Add all that up and Hamilton hit .250 on the season. He batted .200 over his last 60 games played. Was that just a slump? A regression to the mean? Did pitchers find a way to put him away with ease?
Here's the real issue. Hamilton cannot hit.
In 123 games at Triple-A, Hamilton hit .256 with a .308 OBP.
In 152 games in the bigs in 2014, he hit .250 with a .292 OBP.
And yes, it's not just the average that's an issue; it's his total inability to get on base. The .300 OBP he's sported the last two years is dreadful. The major league OBP for position players the past two years is .316. Hamilton has been well below average. #Awful
Hamilton has to prove he belongs with the bat in his hands. At this point in his development, he simply hasn't. Nowhere is that fact more easily discernible than with his ground ball vs. fly ball ratio for 2014. Hamilton produced a 1.11 GB/FB ratio. That mark is pretty much dead on the league average. But what type of hitter is Hamilton? He's a slap hitter, right? Therefore, is that number satisfactory? The answer is… no. Hamilton needs to jack that ground ball rate up by hitting fewer balls in the air, something that should have been inferred above when I noted that he batted .108 when he hit a fly ball. Moreover, his 37.3 fly ball rate was about a percentage higher than average. Heck, Todd Frazier had a 37.1 percent fly ball ratio last season. Hamilton simply must hit the ball on the ground more often if he wants to see his average improve. He might also want to learn how to take a walk since he averaged less than six a month (34 walks all season long). #Pathetic
I feel like I'm belaboring the point, so hopefully it's sunk in. Hamilton cannot hit. Moreover, because he can't hit and has no clue how to take a walk, he produced that sub-.300 OBP. The guy is going to struggle to consistently produce steals if he isn't getting on base. Additionally, he could stand to take Davey Lopes’ class on how to steal a base. Here's what I mean.
Hamilton had 56 steals to tie the mark of Jose Altuve. Both men were eight steals behind big league leader Dee Gordon. However, were you aware that Hamilton was caught stealing 23 times, whereas Altuve and Gordon averaged 14 caught steals apiece? How about this? Altuve, Ben Revere and Jacoby Ellsbury stole 144 bases while being caught 22 times, one less than Hamilton. Only two players in the 21st century have stolen at least 56 bases and been caught at least 23 times in a season: Hamilton last season and Scott Podsednik (he stole 59 bases and was caught 23 times in 2005). Hamilton simply has to improve on his 71 percent stolen base success rate.
You will also want to factor in a couple of other points in regards to Hamilton's prowess on the bases. Since 2000, there have only been four players with back-to-back 55 steal seasons: Jose Reyes, Juan Pierre, Carl Crawford and Podsednik (Reyes actually achieved the goal four straight years from 2005 to 2008). It's not an easy number to replicate in today's game.
What does the lack of success at stealing bases, combined with his inability to get on base, do to Hamilton? It severely limits his runs scored mark. Since 2000 there have only been two seasons in which a player stole 55 or more bases and failed to score 75 runs: Willy Taveras in 2008 (68 steals and 64 runs scored) and Hamilton (56 steals and 72 runs scored). Further, there were 62 men in baseball who scored more runs than Hamilton last year as well as four more who matched his run total of 72. Simply, he was a much less effective run scorer than you would think, given his speed. #JustNotGettingItDone
2015 OUTLOOK
I've been accused of saying things to get a rise out of people. You'll often hear me blabbering on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius210, XM87) saying things like the following:
If that happens, I'll eat my shoe.
I'll bet my left pinkie finger that there's no way he keeps up this pace.
Billy Hamilton cannot hit, at all.
Hamilton can't get on base.
Hamilton isn't remotely impressive in stolen base proficiently.
Hamilton is an all-around blah offensive performer that only has value for his ability to accrue steals, even as the rest of his offensive game wallows in, at best, mediocrity.
Well, at least the first two statements are attention-grabbing in an over-the-top manner. The other statements are just true. #Sorry