A.J. Pollock has a little speed, a little power, and a solid overall game. Last season his talents were on full display before a hand injury sidelined him for three months after he was hit by a pitch. Was last season's power/speed effort a sign of things to come or was it merely a hot couple of months? We'll explore in this Player Profile (click on that link to see all the Players involved in the series). 

THE MINORS

2009: Drafted in the first round, 17th overall, by the Diamondbacks. As a 21 year old he appeared in 63 games at Single-A ball hitting .271 with three homers, 10 steals and 36 runs scored.

2010: Appeared in 16 games at the Arizona Fall league batting .313 with seven steals. He missed the season recovering from surgery on a fractured elbow. 

2011: Was on the field 133 times at Double-A. He hit .307 with a .801 OPS as he hit eight homers, drove in 73 runners, scored 103 times and stole 36 bases. 

2012: Saw action in 106 games at Triple-A batting .318 with a .369 OBP and .411 SLG. He stole 21 bases and scored 65 times.

2014: Appeared in 15 games with a .333/.500/.667 slash line at Rookie Ball (two games) and Triple-A (13 games).  

TOTALS: .299/.350/.411 with 14 homers, 165 RBIs, 218 runs scored and 74 steals over 333 games.  

THE MAJORS

2012: Appeared in 31 games hitting .247 with two homers, a steal and eight runs scored for the D'backs. 

2013: Saw action in 137 games with eight homers, 12 steals and 64 runs scored for the club from Arizona.  

2014: Was on the field for just 75 games because of a fractured hand. A.J. hit .302 with seven homers and 14 steals while getting on base at a .353 clip with a .851 OPS. 

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THE SKILLS

Pollock has only 789 big league at-bats, though they have been spread out over three seasons. It's not an overly large sample size by any means. That has to be factored in to the discussion with the outfielder.

Pollock hit .302 last season and his effort had him on a 150 game pace of 14 homers, 28 steals and 82 runs scored. That would have been a hell of a season if he kept it up over 150 games. Would he have? We'll never know, but we can say this...

Pollock posted a .344 BABIP in 2014. That's a very high mark and one that hardly any players in baseball can reach year after year. A few do, but unless the name on the back of your jersey is Trout it's pretty hard to count on the mark being that high. I'm much more inclined to think that the .314 mark A.J. posted in 2013, or the .318 career mark he owns, paint a more accurate picture than his 2014 BABIP mark. Further support for that position can be found in the 17.1 percent line drive rate that Pollock has posted through three years. Given his speed, and game, one would expect that number to be much higher than that. It's amazing to think he hit .302 last season with a mark of 14.2 percent last season. Take a look at his 18.3 percent mark from 2013 - like his BABIP - as a more likely resting spot for him. 

Speaking of batted balls...

For his career Pollock has a 1.48 GB/FB ratio. That's a solid fit for his skills. Break that down and we have a 49.5 percent ground ball rate an a 33.5 percent fly ball rate. The fly ball rate is league average - again good - and the ground ball rate is about four percent above average (again good). Compare those numbers to his minor league marks and you will see a lot of similarity: 1.41 GB/FB ratio.

Does he walk? Not really with 61 walks over 243 games. At least the strikeout isn't a part of his game we have be worried about as he's been punched out only 139 times to this point. The result is a 0.44 BB/K ratio, just above the league average. He's also posted a solid contact rate of about 83 percent, well above the 78 percent mark that the league tosses out there. 

As one might expect Pollock isn't likely to vault to 20 homers this season. Even 15 might be a stretch. This is one of the main reasons that when I hear that 'Pollock could break out like Michael Brantley did last year' that I just cannot agree. Well that and logic. Predicting a guy going from solid to elite is never a smart thing to do. I will note as this graph shows, that Pollock did match Brantley in wOBA in their 24-25 year old seasons and was clearly ahead of him as a 26 year old. Food for thought. During his minor league career Pollock hit three, zero, tight, three and four homers per seasons. He also had a HR/F ratio of just under six percent. He's bettered that mark a bit in the big leagues with a HR/F ratio of 7.9 percent, but still. A less than league average fly ball total, and a lower than league average ability to convert fly balls into homers, doesn't equal strong odds of a 15-20 homer season. Possible sure, but it's a bit of a stretch. Also hard for me to totally buy into his .050 point increase in Isolated Power up to .196 in 2014.

Oh but that speed... it will play. This guy could easily swipe 20 bases in a full season with a solid 77 percent success rate and the want to steal. Just look at 2014. He was successful 14 times on 17 attempts in just 75 games. So yes, a run to 25 or even 30 thefts is possible in 2015, especially if he hits leadoff as it seems he will. 

As for splits, there's a few things to note. In his career...

There's a four point gap in batting average and one point gap in OBP between facing a lefty and righty. Nothing to see there. However, his .505 SLG versus lefties is .104 points higher than his mark against righties. Pollock has also struggled a bit on the road. Well, a lot actually. At home he's a superstar (.299/.364/.496) but on the road he looks like a 5th outfielder (.254/.294/.372). Of course, the sample size isn't huge in the bigs. Maybe the numbers will become closer with time, but for now, keep an eye on it.

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

At this point it's expected that the D'backs outfield will look like this: David Peralta in left, Pollock in center and Mark Trumbo in right. That could change though. Can Yasmany Tomas handle third or will he have to be moved to the outfield? What will happen to guys like Cody Ross and Ender Inciarte that seem likely to grab some work? Pollock should play nearly every day, and likely hit at the top of the lineup, but there are plenty of options for the club to turn to that should cause a wee bit of pause.

CONCLUSION

A.J. Pollock is a talented player who should hit at the top of the D'backs lineup. If he can stay healthy he's got a chance to be a sneaky play in some leagues. Don't expect him to double up his performance from last season, at least not as a starting point at the draft table, but know that he does have some solid talent, including the ability to use his legs, and that means a solid return on your investment is likely as long as you don't overpay at the draft. 

10 team lg: A fifth outfield option if you wait. Given the uncertainty with his power, and the less than elite stolen base potential, it's tough to be counting on Pollock as more than a depth play in this format. 

12 team lg: A solid option as your 5th outfielder, and less risky in this format because so many more bats will be rostered. If he does breakout, he'll return a nice profit here. 

15 team lg: As your 4th outfielder his 15/25 upside is totally worth taking a shot on. Of all the players that have the ability to reach that level, he is likely to be one of the cheapest to roster. 

NL-only: The overall game is such that he falls right inline with others at the position like Carl Crawford, Angel Pagan and Dexter Fowler. Up to you if you want to invest in the veterans or the youngster, but it's pretty clear that if one of these guys is truly going to "break out" in 2015 it will likely be the D'backs outfielder.