MLB Best Bets Today, 5/23: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Friday
Welcome to tonight’s MLB best bets for this slate of MLB action here at Fantasy Alarm on this Wednesday, May 21st, 2025! It's been another overall nice week on the MLB best bets here as we roll into this Friday slate, and let me tell you the vibes are sky high! Summer starts this weekend, Yacht Rock is blaring on the stereo, and some cold beers are ready to be consumed. Let’s have a night, and happy Memorial Day weekend, everyone!
In this MLB Best Bets Today article, you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines to game totals and, on occasion, some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck!
Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!
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- Bankroll: +11.3 units
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MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/23
Braves vs. Pirates Predictions
The second game of a 4-game series is underway tonight as the Brewers took the opening matchup, but the Pirates finally broke their streak of not scoring more than 4 runs in a game that lasted 21 games! Sadly, looking at the pitching matchup today, I see more of the same for the lowly Pirates offense as they go against Freddy Peralta, and the Brewers offense will have their hands full with Paul Skenes!
Right off the bat, the pitchers and the lack of offense give way to a wager on the under tonight, but not the conventional kind, as you can’t the Pirates bullpen to keep things together so instead let’s wager on the part of the game that the pair of aces will be involved in. In his last 25 innings pitched Skenes has an ERA of 2.52 and has 23 strikeouts, not up to his usual standards but still damn good! Peralta, on the other hand, has a 2.76 ERA in the month of May over 16.1 innings pitched and has 16 strikeouts and has given up just one home run. He will go up against a Pirates offense that scores 2.96 runs per game and has the lowest isolated power mark in the majors at .105. Safe to say the early part of this game should go quickly and smoothly, so give me the under on 3.5 runs in the opening 5 frames.
In addition to that wager, give me Peralta to light it up in the zone for his strikeout prop. Pirates hitters are striking out 21.7% of the time against righties this season, and with Peralta having essentially a strikeout per inning this season, the mark of 5.5 strikeouts should be a simple over for him tonight.
Pick: Brewers & Pirates 1st 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (-130 on DraftKings)
Pick: Freddie Peralta (MIL) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130 on DraftKings)
Cubs vs. Reds Predictions
Another great pitching matchup here in the NL Central as Hunter Greene returns to play for the Reds against Matthew Boyd and the Cubs! Greene has been out since May 7th, but will see action again after an injury scare. But I don’t see a dominant performance right away, and I actually like the Cubs side of things today, but let’s dive in.
The Reds' ace is a strikeout machine, and it's well-known, but how long of a leash will he have out there today, nobody really knows. The Cubs are also a disciplined team with a strikeout rate of 20.7% against right-handed pitching this year, which is 21st in MLB. They have an impressive team BABIP of nearly .300 as well, so the ball will be in play and producing base runners to shorten the start for Greene. His line is 6.5 strikeouts tonight, and it just seems a bit too high to me as he will pitch maybe 5 innings tonight in his return, and this Cubs lineup is impressive.
All things above make me like the Cubs tonight, but also the fact that they are sending out Matthew Boyd, who has been solid in the month of May with a 3.5 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 18 innings pitched. The Reds are notorious for punching out as well, at a 24.6% K-rate against lefties this season. Expect the game to be lower scoring and close to the later stages, but the Cubs are going to win this one on the Money Line to add to their 15-10 record on the road this season.
Pick: Hunter Greene (CIN) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140 on DraftKings)
Pick: Cubs Money Line (-115 on DraftKings)
Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/23
Pick: Isaac Parades (HOU) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-125 on DraftKings)
Pick: Royals & Twins Under 8 Runs (-115 on DraftKings)
Pick: Ketel Marte (ARI) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-150 on DraftKings)
Pick: Rangers Run Line -1.5 (-115 on DraftKings)
Player News
Eugenio Suárez won’t be in the lineup for Tuesday’s game against the White Sox after he was hit on the hand by a pitch Monday.
That probably means Ildemaro Vargas will play third base. X-rays came back negative on Suárez’s hand last night, and he’s considered day-to-day right now.
Athletics released RHP Dylan Floro.
The 34-year-old Floro might be done, unfortunately. One of the game’s most underrated relievers for several seasons, he had a 3.80 ERA in 68 2/3 innings for the Nationals and Diamondbacks last year, but he really collapsed down the stretch and was released by Arizona in mid-September. His velocity is currently about three mph down from where he was a couple of years ago, and he was struggling to the tune of a 7.01 ERA for Triple-A Las Vegas this season.
Mariners released RHP Adonis Medina.
Medina, who saw time with the Phillies and Mets from 2020-22, had a 5.03 ERA in 34 innings out of Tacoma’s pen this season.
Braves signed RHP John Brebbia to a minor league contract.
Brebbia was just cut loose by the Tigers after amassing a 7.71 ERA in 18 2/3 innings. He’ll probably needs to regain some lost velocity if he’s going to help in the Braves pen later this season.
Reds selected the contract of RHP Chase Burns from Triple-A Louisville.
After just 13 starts and 66 innings as a pro, Burns, the second overall pick in the 2024 draft, will make his major league debut against the Yankees tonight. He arrives having posted a 1.77 ERA and an 89/13 K/BB at three levels.
Reds optioned RHP Yosver Zulueta to Triple-A Louisville.
Zulueta did not pitch during his two-day stint with the Reds. He has a 5.33 ERA and a 29/17 K/BB in 25 1/3 innings for Louisville this season.