MLB Best Bets Today, 5/23: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Friday
Welcome to tonight’s MLB best bets for this slate of MLB action here at Fantasy Alarm on this Wednesday, May 21st, 2025! It's been another overall nice week on the MLB best bets here as we roll into this Friday slate, and let me tell you the vibes are sky high! Summer starts this weekend, Yacht Rock is blaring on the stereo, and some cold beers are ready to be consumed. Let’s have a night, and happy Memorial Day weekend, everyone!
In this MLB Best Bets Today article, you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines to game totals and, on occasion, some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck!
Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!
- Season Record: 92-69-4
- Bankroll: +11.3 units
Follow me on twitter @jwaggs10
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/23
Braves vs. Pirates Predictions
The second game of a 4-game series is underway tonight as the Brewers took the opening matchup, but the Pirates finally broke their streak of not scoring more than 4 runs in a game that lasted 21 games! Sadly, looking at the pitching matchup today, I see more of the same for the lowly Pirates offense as they go against Freddy Peralta, and the Brewers offense will have their hands full with Paul Skenes!
Right off the bat, the pitchers and the lack of offense give way to a wager on the under tonight, but not the conventional kind, as you can’t the Pirates bullpen to keep things together so instead let’s wager on the part of the game that the pair of aces will be involved in. In his last 25 innings pitched Skenes has an ERA of 2.52 and has 23 strikeouts, not up to his usual standards but still damn good! Peralta, on the other hand, has a 2.76 ERA in the month of May over 16.1 innings pitched and has 16 strikeouts and has given up just one home run. He will go up against a Pirates offense that scores 2.96 runs per game and has the lowest isolated power mark in the majors at .105. Safe to say the early part of this game should go quickly and smoothly, so give me the under on 3.5 runs in the opening 5 frames.
In addition to that wager, give me Peralta to light it up in the zone for his strikeout prop. Pirates hitters are striking out 21.7% of the time against righties this season, and with Peralta having essentially a strikeout per inning this season, the mark of 5.5 strikeouts should be a simple over for him tonight.
Pick: Brewers & Pirates 1st 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (-130 on DraftKings)
Pick: Freddie Peralta (MIL) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130 on DraftKings)
Cubs vs. Reds Predictions
Another great pitching matchup here in the NL Central as Hunter Greene returns to play for the Reds against Matthew Boyd and the Cubs! Greene has been out since May 7th, but will see action again after an injury scare. But I don’t see a dominant performance right away, and I actually like the Cubs side of things today, but let’s dive in.
The Reds' ace is a strikeout machine, and it's well-known, but how long of a leash will he have out there today, nobody really knows. The Cubs are also a disciplined team with a strikeout rate of 20.7% against right-handed pitching this year, which is 21st in MLB. They have an impressive team BABIP of nearly .300 as well, so the ball will be in play and producing base runners to shorten the start for Greene. His line is 6.5 strikeouts tonight, and it just seems a bit too high to me as he will pitch maybe 5 innings tonight in his return, and this Cubs lineup is impressive.
All things above make me like the Cubs tonight, but also the fact that they are sending out Matthew Boyd, who has been solid in the month of May with a 3.5 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 18 innings pitched. The Reds are notorious for punching out as well, at a 24.6% K-rate against lefties this season. Expect the game to be lower scoring and close to the later stages, but the Cubs are going to win this one on the Money Line to add to their 15-10 record on the road this season.
Pick: Hunter Greene (CIN) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140 on DraftKings)
Pick: Cubs Money Line (-115 on DraftKings)
Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/23
Pick: Isaac Parades (HOU) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-125 on DraftKings)
Pick: Royals & Twins Under 8 Runs (-115 on DraftKings)
Pick: Ketel Marte (ARI) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-150 on DraftKings)
Pick: Rangers Run Line -1.5 (-115 on DraftKings)
Player News
Giants released OF Vaun Brown.
Brown, a 10th-round pick in 2021, had a fantastic debut that summer and in hitting .346/.437/.623 with 23 homers and 44 steals in A-ball in 2022, but he never has managed to conquer Double-A since. He was hitting .247/.347/.282 in 32 games there this season.
MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo suggests that Mets RHP Nolan McLean “could play a key role in the upcoming pennant race.”
DiComo didn’t mention what role McLean would play, but with Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea coming off the injured list last week, it’s more likely McLean would help the Mets out of the bullpen. The 23-year-old has a 2.52 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 65/26 K/BB ratio in 60 2/3 innings at Triple-A Syracuse since being promoted after just five starts at Double-A to begin the season.
The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that free agent RHP David Robertson is throwing for interested teams “within the next week.”
Robertson pitched for the Rangers last season, posting a 3.00 ERA in 72 innings with a 99/27 K/BB ratio. From 2022-24, the 40-year-old averaged 63 appearances per season with a 2.82 ERA, so he has proven that he still can be a quality reliever at the big league level. While many teams were interested in Robertson earlier in the season, the veteran held firm to his contract demands and, as Sammon reports, “clubs failed to meet his asking price.” With the season nearing a close, Robertson’s salary demands are likely to be more acceptable to contenders, so it would not be a surprise to see him sign with a team by the end of the month.
Jonny DeLuca (shoulder) is starting a rehab assignment on Tuesday in the Florida Complex League.
The outfielder had his rehab assignment moved to Triple-A Durham back on May 24th and then experienced a setback a few days later. It seems that the 27-year-old feels healthy enough the get back into game action. It will likely take a few weeks for him to get his rhythm and timing back, but with Jake Mangum, Josh Lowe, and Chandler Simpson all playing well, and both Jose Caballero and Christopher Morel filling in the outfield as well, it’s unclear what kind of role DeLuca might return to.
Athletics drafted RHP/DH Itsuki Takemoto in the 19th round of the 2025 MLB Draft.
Takemoto is an interesting story because, like his fellow countryman Rintaro Sasaki, he decided to skip the Nippon Professional League Draft in 2022 and leave Japan for the United States instead of playing professionally in college. Takemoto played two seasons at the University of Hawaii, posting a 5.16 ERA in 104 2/3 innings while also focusing on weight training and building muscle. While the results weren’t there for the 21-year-old in college, his ultimate result in being drafted could make this pathway more common in the future.
Keibert Ruiz (concussion) has begun hitting off a tee.
Ruiz was placed on the concussion IL on July 8 and had previously been on the concussion list in late June when a foul ball bounced off the back of the Petco Park dugout wall and struck him in the head. The catcher has shown signs of improvement, is working out with the team, and has progressed to hitting off a tee. There’s no word yet on an exact timeline, but he seems to be trending in the right direction.