MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for April 11
Well, it was bound to happen, right? After 12-straight days to open the 2023 MLB season, the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks had its first losing day. Sandy Alcantara got clubbed by the Phillies like he was a baby seal and the Max Scherzer returned to form to shut down a normally feisty Padres lineup. At least we hit on the Dodgers run line at plus-odds to soften the blow. This is why I’m not about all these parlays, especially the same-game parlay. We’re still learning about the season. Best we can do now is dust ourselves off, get back on the horse and check into what our MLB best bets for today will be.
- Yesterday’s Record: 1-2
- Season Record: 26-9
- Bankroll: +13.49 units
Big 15-game slate to look at with some really nice match-ups, so let’s get to it.
MLB Best Bets for April 11
Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates
This one, for me, comes down to whether or not you believe in Pirates starter Mitch Keller and how he limited the Red Sox to just one run over seven innings. I do not and will happily target against him today. The Astros bats have woken up and have averaged 6.3 runs per game over their last three. Lefty bats like Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez should do significant damage and the surrounding lineup should feed off of them. Even with his new sweeper pitch, I just don’t see Keller holding his own. On the other side, I also don’t see this Pirates lineup doing very much against Cristian Javier who can pound the strike zone with the best of them. With no value on the money line, I see no issue in backing the visiting team to win this game by at least two runs.
Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 Run Line (-105 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Any chance you got to see Garrett Whitlock’s tune-up starts to get him ready for today? He looked incredibly sharp, particularly in his most recent one where he allowed one hit (a home run) and one walk over six innings with eight strikeouts. The Rays bats have been amazing, but we all know that seeing someone like Whitlock for the first time can be difficult and I just don’t see them pounding him like he’s some tomato can filling in at the last minute. With Shane McClanahan on the bump for the Rays, this one should stay tight throughout the game and probably on the low-scoring side. It also helps to see that both bullpens have looked string this season.
Pick: Red Sox/Rays under 7.5 runs (-115 on BetMGM)
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers
When he was with the Mets, Jacob deGrom rarely saw any legitimate run support, but that hasn’t been the case with the Rangers as they’ve scored 16 runs in his two outings thus far. And that was against Aaron Nola and Grayson Rodriguez. Now they get to face Jordan Lyles? The human punching bag? I am all-in for that. I don’t even think I need to quote numbers, but if you like, I can say that lefties are posting a .356 wOBA against Lyles and righties have a .332 mark. He’s allowed six runs (two home runs) through just 11 innings and add to it, the Royals bullpen which has a 5.72 ERA this season. I think Texas wins this one easily, but the best value I could really find was the Rangers team total.
Pick: Texas Rangers over 4.5 runs (-130 on BetMGM)
*all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.
Player News
Ronald Acuña Jr. (knee) will not require a follow-up exam in Los Angeles before he starts a minor league rehab assignment.
The Braves have provided a clarification that Acuña will not require a follow-up visit to Los Angeles and is expected to get into minor league rehab games at some point this month. It’s unclear when exactly the 27-year-old fantasy superstar will kick off a rehab assignment, but it sounds like there’s a chance he’s ready to return to Atlanta for his season debut by the end of May.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell told reporters top prospect Cade Horton is a candidate to start on Saturday against the Mets.
Counsell also mentioned veteran Chris Flexen as an option to take the ball in place of an injured Shota Imanaga. Horton has looked outstanding this season at Triple-A Iowa, compiling a sparkling microscopic 1.24 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 33/13 K/BB ratio across 29 innings (six starts). The 23-year-old top pitching prospect missed most of last year with a lat injury, but he hasn’t skipped a beat in his return. He would offer some immediate appeal for fantasy managers, which makes him a worthwhile stash candidate in deeper mixed leagues.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters Freddy Peralta (groin) might get an extra “day or two” of additional rest before his next start.
Peralta left Sunday’s start against the Cubs after six innings due to groin soreness and it sounds like he’s going to need some extra time before taking the ball again. The 28-year-old strikeout machine hasn’t undergone any imaging at this point to determine the severity of the issue, but that figures to be in the works. There should be some clarity on his status at some point later this week, but fantasy managers should expect his next start to be pushed back at least a couple days.
Padres manager Mike Shildt confirmed Jackson Merrill (hamstring) will be activated for Tuesday’s game against the Yankees.
Shildt added that Merrill has joined the Padres at Yankee Stadium and will sit out Monday’s series opener as part of the final stage of his rehabilitation process. The 22-year-old franchise cornerstone went 2-for-6 with a walk in a pair of minor league rehab contests over the weekend for Double-A San Antonio. He’ll return to San Diego’s lineup on Tuesday following a one-month absence due to a right hamstring strain.
Brice Turang is not in the lineup for Monday’s series opener against the Astros.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters they want to give Turang an extra day off as he continues to work his way back from last week’s illness that cost him a couple games. It doesn’t sound like a significant concern moving forward.
Sal Frelick (knee) is absent from the lineup for Monday’s series opener against the Astros.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters MRI results on Frelick’s left knee were encouraging and that he expects him to avoid a trip to the injured list. It sounds like there’s a chance the versatile 25-year-old returns to Milwaukee’s lineup at some point later this week. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for now.