Tigers vs. Astros Predictions, Picks & Odds: AL Wild Card Game 1, 10/1
The 2024 MLB playoffs kick off on Tuesday as the Detroit Tigers hit the road to face the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the 2024 MLB Wild Card Series.
The Astros, who finished the season with an 88-73 record, won the AL West title while the Tigers snagged the final wild card spot in the American League playoff race.
The up-and-coming Detroit Tigers will have their hands full against the Houston Astros, who have consistently been World Series contenders for the better part of the last decade
For our Game 1 Tigers vs. Astros predictions, we’ll dive into the key storylines and factors that could shape this exciting playoff battle. Stay tuned as we explore the crucial elements that will help us make our Tigers vs. Astros picks!
Tigers vs. Astros Predictions For AL Wild Card Game 1
For our Game 1 Tigers vs. Astros predictions, we need to look at the complete matchup. First, both teams are going to be pitching their top starters with the Tigers pitching American League Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal and the Astros sending their own star southpaw in Framber Valdez.
Offensively, the Tigers have struggled this season against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th in wOBA, 26th in ISO and 26th in batting average. Their 24.6% strikeout rate against southpaws was the seventh-highest mark in the league.
Detroit's top offensive players are largely left-handed hitters with outfielder Riley Greene leading the team in batting average (.262), home runs (24) and RBI (74). In fact, three of the top four home run hitters on Detroit this season hit from the left-side of the plate with Kerry Carpenter (18) and rookie Colk Keith (13) providing the offensive punch.
The Astros have always hit left-handed pitching well and this year was no different as they ranked sixth in wOBA, 12th in ISO, 3rd in batting average while having the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league at 19.3%.
Even the Astros left-handed hitters hit southpaws with Yordan Alvarez hitting .362 this season and Kyle Tucker owning a .204 ISO and a .366 wOBA against left-handed pitching.
Before we settle on our Tigers vs. Astros predictions, we need to examine a few key storylines that could shape Game 1.
Houston Astros: Will Yordan Alvarez Play In Game 1?
The big storyline for the Astros heading into Game 1 is whether or not Yordan Alvarez will actually be in the lineup. Alvarez suffered a sprained knee back on September 22nd and has not played since.
Current expectations are that Alvarez will be available for Game 1 but recent statements made by manager Joe Espada did leave for the chance that Alvarez may not be available and instead will be a game time decision based on how Alvarez feels in the batting cage and running on the field during the team’s pregame warmups.
If Alvarez does not suit up that would be a pretty big blow as Alvarez is not only the best hitter in their lineup but, as I mentioned earlier, he also really hits left-handed pitching well and with Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers the Astros lineup will need all the help they can get.
Detroit Tigers: Can Tarik Skubal Help Tigers Steal Game 1?
Nobody expected the Detroit Tigers to make the playoffs this season, but they did, and they did because of Tarik Skubal.
The likely American League Cy Young award winner went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA this season while striking out 228 over 192.0 innings.
Skubal faced the Astros twice this season with varying levels of success. In their first meeting he held Houston to two runs over six innings while striking out seven. In their second meeting he allowed four runs over 6.1 innings while striking out just two.
If the Tigers are to steal Game 1 it's going to be due to the fact that Skubal pitches like the “Ace” pitcher that he is and ends up throwing a shutout performance against this tough Astros lineup.
Tigers vs. Astros Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
Here are the current Tigers vs. Astros odds, spreads totals and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Run Line
- Tigers +1.5 (-192)
- Astros -1.5 (+160)
Money Line
- Tigers: +110
- Astros: -130
Total
- 6.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
Tigers vs. Astros Starting Pitcher & Lineup
Skubal went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA this season while striking out 228 over 192.0 innings. He is currently the odds favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award at -5000 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
The Astros southpaw got off to a slow start, but his second half of the season was quite impressive as he went 7-2 with a 1.96 ERA while striking out 87 over 78 innings.
Overall this season, Valdez finished 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA to lead the Astros pitching staff.
Tigers vs. Astros Game Total: Under 6.5 Runs (-120 on DraftKings)
We’ve talked extensively about how both teams are pitching their best starting pitcher here for Game 1 with the Tigers sending likely Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal up against the Astros top lefty in Framber Valdez.
Given the quality of starting pitching in Game 1, along with the fact that the Tigers offense ranks among the league's worst against lefties and that the Astros may be without Yordan Alvarez for this matchup, I’m leaning towards taking the under 6.5 runs for our Tigers vs. Astros prediction.
There is a very good chance that both of these starting pitchers shut down the opposing offenses and, especially in playoff baseball, we should see these starters pitch deeper into games than we would have usually seen during the regular season.
So, for our Tigers vs. Astros picks, we are rolling with the under on the total runs of 6.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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